Will the House Democrats break their 2008 seat total?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

After the 2006 elections, Democrats had 236 seats, in 2008 they won the congressional vote by 11%. They netted 21 seats to bring them up to 257 seats.

Will they be able to beat the 257 mark?

It will be close either way, Democrats are a almost identical number in the house right now. The GCB is looking like 2018 again. Democrats have collapsed in Appalachia and most of the south, but have made big gains in suburbia, and the sunbelt.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably not. This particular house map is more gerrymandered against them than the 2000s house map. I guess it's possible but they would need a larger landslide than 08' and a lot of close races would need to fall their way

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Probably not. This particular house map is more gerrymandered against them than the 2000s house map. I guess it's possible but they would need a larger landslide than 08' and a lot of close races would need to fall their way

The 2010 gerrymander is really old and stale now. The TX Gerrymander could blow up this year, Democrats could net 4-6 seats just in TX alone this year as well as pickups in NC,GA,OH,PA,FL, and NY. I think Dems will fall short of 257, and be around the 250 mark.

[Mr.Phips]

No, as there is far more polarization now.

[Orser67]

Democrats have 233 seats right now. Flipping 10-15 seats seems doable in a good year, but I think flipping 24+ seats would be pretty difficult.

You've got two easy pickups in NC, a few really good targets in TX (TX-10 and 21 through 24), three incumbents in Clinton-won districts (Katko, Fitzpatrick, and Garcia), a few vacant seats in competitive areas (e.g. GA-7 and NY-2), and some other random opportunities (e.g. CA-25, NJ-2, NE-2, PA-10). But getting to a 24-seat pickup would require knocking off some pretty well-entrenched incumbents and/or winning in places Trump won by >=5 points.

[SevenEleven]

Highly unlikely.

I'd be surprised if the House composition changes much from where it is now.

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

Unless the Dems win by an FDR level margin, I can't see how they flip another 20+ seats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Unless the Dems win by an FDR level margin, I can't see how they flip another 20+ seats.

Off the top of my head, flipping GA-07, AZ-06, the eight Texas seats, PA-01, IN-05, MO-02, the two NC seats, NE-02, NJ-02, NY-24 gets you almost the whole way there. Not sure where else you'd get seats, but we can definitely get close.

[Pericles]

If Democrats win by the same PV margin as they won by in 2008 (10.6%), that would mean on a uniform swing they win all the seats they lost by 2% or less in 2018. So that flips GA-07,  NC-09, NY-27, TX-23, MN-01, IL-13, KS-02 and NE-02. So 243 Dem seats, 14 short of the 2008 total. Of course it won't quite be a uniform swing, some seats like the open Texas seats will be more favorable to Dems than that implies while others like Republican trending seats and ones with special circumstances (so MN-01 and NY-27 won't be as close) will be more favorable for Republicans. But I don't see how Democrats get to 258. The 23rd closest Republican seat (MT-AL) in 2018 had a 4.6% margin for the Republicans, so a whopping 13.2% to the right of the nation.

[Epaminondas]

Voted yes as a joke, but it's really a stretch to see how they net 25.

If the election goes splendidly, the intake could be as follows
Tex +6
Penns +3
Cali, NorCar, NY +2
Flor, Minn, Nebr, Misso, Georg, Virg, NJ, Wash, Ind, Kent +1

That would be exactly 25, without any losses from Horn, McAdams or Cunningham.
Probably quite out of reach for now.

[We Live in Black and White]

There's a chance, but it only exists on a technical basis.

[Politics Fan]

Incredibly doubtful this is probably what Dems would need to flip to match 2008 total:

Hold all their own seats 233: Probably only a 35-40% chance this happens with tough races in MN-7/OK-5/SC-1/IA-3/NM-2 and a few other seats that I’m missing. I doubt Dems lose all of these but will find it challenging to hold all the five listed along with all 228 non listed seats. Let’s for arguments sake say Dems hold all 233 seats.

Add Safe D redistricting seats:
NC-2
NC-6
This gets Dems back to their 2018 total. Ok the slightly harder part gaining seats.

Add Lean D Republican open seats
TX-23 (Open Clinton seat probably will go to Biden)

Add seats in possible Biden territory:
GA-7
CA-25
IL-12
IL-13
MI-6
MI-7
NE-2
NJ-2
NY-1
NY-2
NY-24
PA-1
TX-22
TX-24
These are all places Biden probably has a good chance of carrying in the prez race. This gets Dems to 250 seats.

We next look at some longer shot races that were close last time but will have their district vote for Trump.
FL-15
OH-1
PA-10
TX-2
TX-10
TX-21
VA-5
WA-3

That gets you to 258 seats

[Del Tachi]

Probably not. This particular house map is more gerrymandered against them than the 2000s house map. I guess it's possible but they would need a larger landslide than 08' and a lot of close races would need to fall their way

It's not so much gerrymandering at this point (as was noted, the 2010 gerrymanders are effectively defunct now) so much as Democratic voters are more concentrated in urban areas than ever before.  The efficiency gap for Democrats makes a 2008-type majority near-impossible. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Probably not. This particular house map is more gerrymandered against them than the 2000s house map. I guess it's possible but they would need a larger landslide than 08' and a lot of close races would need to fall their way

It's not so much gerrymandering at this point (as was noted, the 2010 gerrymanders are effectively defunct now) so much as Democratic voters are more concentrated in urban areas than ever before.  The efficiency gap for Democrats makes a 2008-type majority near-impossible. 

In 2010 Republicans were probably more worried about House Democrats making a comeback in the rural areas than the suburbs. Democrats lost a seat in TX in 2008 and picked up no seats in CA that year. Republicans were still Reagan's sun belt party. Historically rural areas and big cities would vote Democratic while the suburbs voted blood red.