KY - RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits - Trump + 17

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/KY-Survey-May-21-2020.pdf
May 21-24
500 registered voters
MoE: 4.5%

Trump 53%
Biden 36%
Undecided 5%%
Some other candidate 6%

[Alben Barkley]

Second poll now showing his lead here cut about in half from 2016.

Even if he gets all the undecideds (unlikely), he won't do as well. Biden is already above Hillary. And I think in a real blowout, he could get 40.

And according to the last poll at least, he's outright winning KY-06 by a decisive margin. I really think it would be a mistake to ignore this district.

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

Second poll now showing his lead here cut about in half from 2016.

Even if he gets all the undecideds (unlikely), he won't do as well. Biden is already above Hillary. And I think in a real blowout, he could get 40.

And according to the last poll at least, he's outright winning KY-06 by a decisive margin. I really think it would be a mistake to ignore this district.

I slightly concur.

[NOVA Green]

This is a two week old poll....

Under current circumstances this seems like a poll from one to two months ago....

Why are we just seeing this now, regardless of the source of the pollster?

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

I highly doubt Trump ends up under 60 in Kentucky, given that Romney managed to get 60 there and given that, if anything, the state has shifted more toward Republicans since 2012.

Tennessee, however, I could see being a different story.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Second poll now showing his lead here cut about in half from 2016.

Even if he gets all the undecideds (unlikely), he won't do as well. Biden is already above Hillary. And I think in a real blowout, he could get 40.

And according to the last poll at least, he's outright winning KY-06 by a decisive margin. I really think it would be a mistake to ignore this district.

Don't the Ds already have a decent candidate there?

[Calthrina950]

I highly doubt Trump ends up under 60 in Kentucky, given that Romney managed to get 60 there and given that, if anything, the state has shifted more toward Republicans since 2012.

Tennessee, however, I could see being a different story.

Trump will probably manage to reach 60%, but if Biden truly does win by an Obama-2008 margin or even greater, I think that there is a strong likelihood that Trump would slip into the upper 50s there (around 58-59%). This poll, moreover, seems to suggest that some of the gains which Andy Beshear made in Jefferson, Fayette, Campbell, Kenton, and Boone Counties may be transferring over to Biden. Like other states, Kentucky's urban and suburban areas are becoming (slightly) more Democratic, while its rural and exurban areas continue their move to the right.