KY - RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits - McConnell +1

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

McGrath supports term limits, FWIW.

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/KY-Survey-May-21-2020.pdf
May 21-24
500 registered voters
MoE: 4.5%

McConnell 41%
McGrath 40%
Undecided 10%
Some other candidate 9%

"Suppose you knew that Amy McGrath and Donald Trump support term limits, but Mitch McConnell opposes term limits. If you knew that to be true and the U.S. Senate election were held today, for whom would you vote?"

McGrath 45%
McConnell 30%
Undecided 17%
Some other candidate 8%

Edit: my mistake! This was a McGrath 41%; McConnell 40% poll.

[The Mamdani Virus]

These undecideds will break heavily Republican. This remains Safe R and KY polling is notorious for overestimating Democrats.

[President Johnson]

Looks accurate. 40% is about what McGrath will get in the end.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I should have posted this in the polls subsection - my apologies. "Some other candidate" probably masks McConnell's margin here.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Net Dems the 51 seat majority in the Senate, AZ, CO, ME and NC are gone and KY will be 51 as IA 52

[Alben Barkley]

These undecideds will break heavily Republican. This remains Safe R and KY polling is notorious for overestimating Democrats.

Except last year, when everyone said that and then it ended up being dead-on.

Don't get me wrong, Mitch will win. But I really think it's gonna be closer than either the 2014 or 2016 senate races. Can easily see it closer to 2008, with Mitch winning by mid-single digits.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are we really to believe that Kentucky voters care THIS much about term limits?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Are we really to believe that Kentucky voters care THIS much about term limits?

The survey's question makes sure to slip in that DJT agrees with McGrath there, so this is more of a 'closer to Trump' phenomenon that would not show up on election day unless Trump suddenly hated McConnell more than his Democratic opponent and actively campaigned against him (not happening).

The margin will probably be closer than 2014, but McGraft won't win.

[Alben Barkley]

Are we really to believe that Kentucky voters care THIS much about term limits?

It's much more about agreeing with Trump, sadly.

[ND, SD, MT, WY, and ID statehood was and is unconstitutional]

Safe R

[The Mamdani Virus]

These undecideds will break heavily Republican. This remains Safe R and KY polling is notorious for overestimating Democrats.

Except last year, when everyone said that and then it ended up being dead-on.

Don't get me wrong, Mitch will win. But I really think it's gonna be closer than either the 2014 or 2016 senate races. Can easily see it closer to 2008, with Mitch winning by mid-single digits.

But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

This wasn't as true in the Governor race, but this absolutely stays true in a federal race. Racist rural Kentuckians are fine with voting for a Democratic governor when Republicans hold veto-proof supermajorities in the state legislature, they will not be fine with voting for a Senator who would be a vote for New York liberal Chuck Schumer for Majority Leader, also Beshear only barely won against someone as hated as Bevin, who had his own enemies in the state GOP (McConnell for instance). Yeah, color me skeptical that this will be close. In fact if around 2,600 Beshear voters flipped to Bevin he would have won, and McConnell while unpopular is not nearly as hated as Bevin was, yeah this won't be close. My conservative estimate is around McConnell+12, but not hard to see him doing better than 2014. Oh also did I forget that the Libertarians probably served as a spoiler and handed it to Beshear. McConnell isn't losing unless the NPV is at least like D+12 or above, and at that point, McConnell losing is not a major concern, at all.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These undecideds will break heavily Republican. This remains Safe R and KY polling is notorious for overestimating Democrats.

Except last year, when everyone said that and then it ended up being dead-on.

Don't get me wrong, Mitch will win. But I really think it's gonna be closer than either the 2014 or 2016 senate races. Can easily see it closer to 2008, with Mitch winning by mid-single digits.

But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

This wasn't as true in the Governor race, but this absolutely stays true in a federal race. Racist rural Kentuckians are fine with voting for a Democratic governor when Republicans hold veto-proof supermajorities in the state legislature, they will not be fine with voting for a Senator who would be a vote for New York liberal Chuck Schumer for Majority Leader, also Beshear only barely won against someone as hated as Bevin, who had his own enemies in the state GOP (McConnell for instance). Yeah, color me skeptical that this will be close. In fact if around 2,600 Beshear voters flipped to Bevin he would have won, and McConnell while unpopular is not nearly as hated as Bevin was, yeah this won't be close. My conservative estimate is around McConnell+12, but not hard to see him doing better than 2014. Oh also did I forget that the Libertarians probably served as a spoiler and handed it to Beshear. McConnell isn't losing unless the NPV is at least like D+12 or above, and at that point, McConnell losing is not a major concern, at all.

McConnell isn't losing to any of the current candidates even in a D+12 environment. He can just bring the pork home at the right moment and, if he's to be beaten, needs to be lagging well behind in polls prior to the pork barrelling.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Just to clarify - I mixed the two up when copying it out to this page. It's McGrath +1 - McGrath 41%, McConnell 40%.

[Brittain33]

Locking. There’s a thread on this in the polling sub forum.