1976-1980

[True Democrat]

Looking through some Southern county results from 1976-1980, I realized that Carter actually increased his percentages in many counties.  I understand in some Mississippi counties with I guess increased African-American support (Carter was kind of a Dixiecrat candidate in 76), but why did Carter's percentage go up in places like Jefferson County, Kentucky?

[True Democrat]

Anyone, anyone at all?

[dazzleman]

Anyone, anyone at all?

To be honest, I'm a little perplexed.

I don't know enough about the demographics of the counties that you are talking about.

I do know that Carter swept the south in 1976, and lost close races to Ronald Reagan in most of the southern states in 1980.  1980 was the last election in which the Democratic percentage of the vote was higher in the south than in the rest of the country.

I don't know what percentage of the black vote Ford and Reagan got in 1976 and 1980, respectively, though I don't think blacks ever had the hostility to Ford that they did to Reagan.  And Ford had basically written off the south, and had not made what anybody would consider to be under-the-table appeals to white racist voters in the south.

So it could be that while Ford surely fared poorly among blacks, he didn't do as poorly as Reagan did, and that in heavily black areas, Carter could have improved his overall showing, even though his performance among white voters slipped badly between the two elections.

[phk]

Before the 1990s, Blacks used to vote 80-20.

[Gustaf]

Maybe the 76 primaries played some sort of role, Reagan swept the SOuthern ones against Ford.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

but why did Carter's percentage go up in places like Jefferson County, Kentucky?

The Louisville suburbs had a lot of people who were kind of like old-style Republicans, much like suburbs of cities that were further north. They were pretty conservative, but not as conservative as the Reagan types. They probably liked Ford, but not Reagan.

[Beet]

It could be relevant that Ford defeated Reagan (abeit narrowly) in both the Kentucky and Tennessee primaries in 1976. The defeats were attributed I think to comments Reagan made shortly before the primaries about privatizing the Tennessee Valley Authority.