CT Redistricting 2020

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

anyone tried making state legislature maps? I made a state senate map.
The intent is an R-leaning, compactness-driven quasi-neutral map (as evidenced by the creation of D vote sinks out of big towns, the pairing of East Hartford and Manchester, and other things)
https://davesredistricting.org/join/7865f623-97bf-4068-ad71-d8eed0df811a
I tried State House but it's an utter pain. Districts that are small+large precincts.

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

It doesn't take Hartford but clearly has a gerrymandered arm to take New Britain.

Yeah, no dispute there whatsoever.
New Britain's position in the 5th is an artifact from when Nancy L. Johnson, the former Republican congresswoman (served 1985-2007) was in the district. She won New Britain almost every election, and insisted it be added in the new 5th; it voted against her in 2004 and in 2006 helped send her into retirement.

After she left the scene, New Britain now became sort of a firewall territory for Dems, helping ensure they would win any close races. In 2012 Liz Esty narrowly won over Andrew Roraback partially due to its inclusion, and in the 2010s New Britain's role has mainly been to keep the CD in the Dem column. Democrats fought tooth and nail to keep it in the 5th in 2011-2012, and they were correct to think that its inclusion in CT-05 would be critical.

I don't see them changing their thinking much in this department. New Britain, despite its popular GOP mayor and GOP control of the organs of local govt there, still gives Dem outsize margins on federal level. In 2020, New Britain gave Biden a more than 2-to-1 raw margin, and over 8,000 vote plurality, out of slightly over 25k votes cast. The arm to New Britain started off an incumbent dummymander, and now is a simple partisan gerrymander.
The environment changes, and the parties, but the lines remain the same, for differing reasons.

well removing NB from CT-5 could be a concession R's extract.  The result wouldn't be an R gerrymander, just a fair map.

[Nyvin]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

It doesn't take Hartford but clearly has a gerrymandered arm to take New Britain.

Yeah, no dispute there whatsoever.
New Britain's position in the 5th is an artifact from when Nancy L. Johnson, the former Republican congresswoman (served 1985-2007) was in the district. She won New Britain almost every election, and insisted it be added in the new 5th; it voted against her in 2004 and in 2006 helped send her into retirement.

After she left the scene, New Britain now became sort of a firewall territory for Dems, helping ensure they would win any close races. In 2012 Liz Esty narrowly won over Andrew Roraback partially due to its inclusion, and in the 2010s New Britain's role has mainly been to keep the CD in the Dem column. Democrats fought tooth and nail to keep it in the 5th in 2011-2012, and they were correct to think that its inclusion in CT-05 would be critical.

I don't see them changing their thinking much in this department. New Britain, despite its popular GOP mayor and GOP control of the organs of local govt there, still gives Dem outsize margins on federal level. In 2020, New Britain gave Biden a more than 2-to-1 raw margin, and over 8,000 vote plurality, out of slightly over 25k votes cast. The arm to New Britain started off an incumbent dummymander, and now is a simple partisan gerrymander.
The environment changes, and the parties, but the lines remain the same, for differing reasons.

well removing NB from CT-5 could be a concession R's extract.  The result wouldn't be an R gerrymander, just a fair map.

They didn't get that in 2011 and they were in a slightly better position back then than now, they have fewer state senators now and are in a much more partisan environment.

I'd say more realistic they push for maintaining above 33% of seats in both state chambers.

[S019]

No evidence, but just a gut feeling that the Democrats would be far more likely to give Courtney a competitive seat than Hayes, given Courtney plans to leave soon, and he is safe as long as he's there, while Hayes will be around for a while. Even if Courtney doesn't leave, this is still the smart play, as he is very popular in that seat, and if he does, Hayes gets priority over a TBD freshman.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Could Democrats do what Republicans did in Missouri to pass a gerrymander. Like give a republican incumbent a safer district

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Could Democrats do what Republicans did in Missouri to pass a gerrymander. Like give a republican incumbent a safer district

There are no report republicans in the Congressional delegation to protect.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could Democrats do what Republicans did in Missouri to pass a gerrymander. Like give a republican incumbent a safer district

There are no report republicans in the Congressional delegation to protect.

could do legislative GOP incumbents.

[Torie]

[mpbond]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e7379d7a-c077-471b-af1e-0bf5bd063c84

Heres a state house map. With such small districts, it's hard to gerrymander or make significant changes, so I expect next decades maps to be very similar to the current ones. The main difference is that Litchfield County loses a seat to Fairfield County. The seat moves from the Northern part of Litchfield County to the Danbury area, which benefits the Dems. However, overall composition shouldn't change too much, barring any realignments, with 80-100 Democratic seats and 50-70 Republican Seats.

[mpbond]

Also- something I think the Dems will try to do is take the town of Plainville from the 5th district and put it in the 1st. The (Republican) state rep there is Dr. William Petit, who is the survivor of a horrific home invasion in which his family was murdered. As a result, he has a pretty big platform on criminal justice issues, and even though he advocates for conservative, tough on crime policies, he is relatively uncontroversial and popular. I think the Democrats will draw his residence into a deep blue one to try and prevent a congressional run by him.

[Sol]

Also- something I think the Dems will try to do is take the town of Plainville from the 5th district and put it in the 1st. The (Republican) state rep there is Dr. William Petit, who is the survivor of a horrific home invasion in which his family was murdered. As a result, he has a pretty big platform on criminal justice issues, and even though he advocates for conservative, tough on crime policies, he is relatively uncontroversial and popular. I think the Democrats will draw his residence into a deep blue one to try and prevent a congressional run by him.

Doesn't CT require a 2/3rds majority to pass maps?

[mpbond]

Also- something I think the Dems will try to do is take the town of Plainville from the 5th district and put it in the 1st. The (Republican) state rep there is Dr. William Petit, who is the survivor of a horrific home invasion in which his family was murdered. As a result, he has a pretty big platform on criminal justice issues, and even though he advocates for conservative, tough on crime policies, he is relatively uncontroversial and popular. I think the Democrats will draw his residence into a deep blue one to try and prevent a congressional run by him.

Doesn't CT require a 2/3rds majority to pass maps?

Yes, which they have in the senate and are 3 short of in the house. They obviously won't be able to aggressively gerrymander or anything like that, but I think they could do some minor things, like what I mentioned above, as long as it doesn't change the partisanship of the districts too much.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Well CT might not be the most interesting state for redistricting this time. Decided to make thread because why not? lol


DRA released new election data for CT. I made 3 different Congressional map.

The first map is a Incumbent based map, second map is a 4D - 1R map and the third is a 4D - 1 toss-up map. Election data is 2020 President.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/55507960-8338-4666-9774-4bed21b1fde8
https://davesredistricting.org/join/147f8553-a64f-450f-b6dc-e70b695fda80
https://davesredistricting.org/join/07f2b7f8-7ed3-4541-b943-367c6e4a15b6

[Schiff for Senate]

The Connecticut Democrats would be fools to cede over a seat to the GOP. There's no need. Currently East Connecticut's 2nd is the most competitive district and Joe Courtney has it locked down. They should leave it mostly the same, though I think to make sure the northwestern 5th is safe for Jahana Hayes, they could replace some liberal territory from John Larson's district (it's got a D+11 CPVI, compared to the 5th's D+2 CPVI) and hand over some reddish area to Larson's district. I don't know. In all honesty, even the 4th is pretty liberal (it went for Biden by eleven points), but to be in the safe side, they can do what I just said. They could make CT01, say, D+9 instead of D+11, and simultaneously make CT05 D+4 rather than D+2.

In reference to your maps, #1 (incumbent protection - in other words, 5 blue seats) is the best choice for the party (obviously). I'd say map #2 (a 4.5-0.5 map) is the fairest and most reasonable. #3 would honestly be like the Connecticut Democrats trying to help their counterparts. A 4-1 map is obviously very favourable to the GOP, and is the sort of thing Republicans might do if they could control redistricting in CT. There's no way the Connecticut Democrats would let it pass (why would they give the GOP a free district for no reason whatsoever?). So #3 is impossible, #1 is probably the first pick of Connecticut Democrats (and similar to what they will try to get passed), and #2 might happen if Connecticut Democrats have to compromise with Connecticut Republicans for some reason (though I'd say even #2 can be easily averted by the Democrats).

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow 4th district is getting really small.  Must be NYC suburban sprawl at work.

[S019]

The Connecticut Democrats would be fools to cede over a seat to the GOP. There's no need. Currently East Connecticut's 2nd is the most competitive district and Joe Courtney has it locked down. They should leave it mostly the same, though I think to make sure the northwestern 5th is safe for Jahana Hayes, they could replace some liberal territory from John Larson's district (it's got a D+11 CPVI, compared to the 5th's D+2 CPVI) and hand over some reddish area to Larson's district. I don't know. In all honesty, even the 4th is pretty liberal (it went for Biden by eleven points), but to be in the safe side, they can do what I just said. They could make CT01, say, D+9 instead of D+11, and simultaneously make CT05 D+4 rather than D+2.

In reference to your maps, #1 (incumbent protection - in other words, 5 blue seats) is the best choice for the party (obviously). I'd say map #2 (a 4.5-0.5 map) is the fairest and most reasonable. #3 would honestly be like the Connecticut Democrats trying to help their counterparts. A 4-1 map is obviously very favourable to the GOP, and is the sort of thing Republicans might do if they could control redistricting in CT. There's no way the Connecticut Democrats would let it pass (why would they give the GOP a free district for no reason whatsoever?). So #3 is impossible, #1 is probably the first pick of Connecticut Democrats (and similar to what they will try to get passed), and #2 might happen if Connecticut Democrats have to compromise with Connecticut Republicans for some reason (though I'd say even #2 can be easily averted by the Democrats).

Democrats might not have a chance, they fell short of the 2/3 threshold needed to pass their maps without Republican approval, meaning some concession to Republicans is likely necessary in order for maps to pass the legislature.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We already have a thread.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=377863.0

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

We already have a thread.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=377863.0

Ah, couldn't find it on the atlas search page.

Can the mods merge my thread to the main CT Redistricting thread please?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We already have a thread.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=377863.0

Ah, couldn't find it on the atlas search page.

Stuff like this is why we have the Master thread that's pinned.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CT House districts that can be nested in the given municipality(ies) under 2020 census data.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[image]
CT House districts that can be nested in the given municipality(ies) under 2020 census data.

Miscolored two groupings.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CT house of reps map.
76 Lamont districts, 129 Biden districts.
Here's the map itself
here is the base map which I used to draw it

[BoiseBoy]

A few updates since this thread has had none for months:

The legislature had a deadline of September 15, 2021 to submit a congressional map.

This did not happen, therefore a backup commission had until November 30 to finalize a map.

This did not happen, so the commission asked the CT Supreme Court for an extension on the deadline.

On December 9, the court granted their request, extending the deadline by three weeks to December 21, 2021.

Today is December 21, we shall see if the congressional map is actually finalized.

Connecticut DID however complete their maps for the state house and senate, and those can be found here:
https://www.cga.ct.gov/rr/taskforce.asp?TF=20210401_2021%20Redistricting%20Project

[Antonio the Sixth]

A few updates since this thread has had none for months:

The legislature had a deadline of September 15, 2021 to submit a congressional map.

This did not happen, therefore a backup commission had until November 30 to finalize a map.

This did not happen, so the commission asked the CT Supreme Court for an extension on the deadline.

On December 9, the court granted their request, extending the deadline by three weeks to December 21, 2021.

Today is December 21, we shall see if the congressional map is actually finalized.

Connecticut DID however complete their maps for the state house and senate, and those can be found here:
https://www.cga.ct.gov/rr/taskforce.asp?TF=20210401_2021%20Redistricting%20Project

lmao what is happening there? How hard can it be to draw 5 measly CDs?

[BoiseBoy]

A few updates since this thread has had none for months:

The legislature had a deadline of September 15, 2021 to submit a congressional map.

This did not happen, therefore a backup commission had until November 30 to finalize a map.

This did not happen, so the commission asked the CT Supreme Court for an extension on the deadline.

On December 9, the court granted their request, extending the deadline by three weeks to December 21, 2021.

Today is December 21, we shall see if the congressional map is actually finalized.

Connecticut DID however complete their maps for the state house and senate, and those can be found here:
https://www.cga.ct.gov/rr/taskforce.asp?TF=20210401_2021%20Redistricting%20Project

lmao what is happening there? How hard can it be to draw 5 measly CDs?

The September deadline was missed due to the delay in the release of census data. As for the inability since then, considering their house and senate maps were completed, I have no idea.

Since the court granted an extension, the only word we've gotten is a progress report made on December 15. We should see maps today, hopefully.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1471490177310683142?s=20