GA - Progress Campaign (D): tie

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A reminder that this group is still being vetted by 538, but they seem genuine. Poll previously embargoed during vetting, but released as the primary is tomorrow.

https://becd085d-5f24-4974-b9b5-73518197155a.filesusr.com/ugd/83fab9_3f5865357dc84aae989fc77021a6e4ce.pdf

May 4-15, 2020
2893 likely voters
MoE: 2%

Biden 47%
Trump 47%
Other/undecided: 6%

[wbrocks67]

Also should be noted that this poll was taken in early May, so it might even more in Biden's favor right now. But, adds up to almost every other poll that shows GA is a tie and a tossup.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Seems in-line with other GA polls we have. It's a tossup.

[tagimaucia]

The educational weighting here looked slightly off (I think they might have weighted to the exit poll instead of the voter file?), but when I "adjusted" for it, it only became Trump +1.  I think there are enough non college-educated African Americans in Georgia that poor educational weighting doesn't throw things off nearly as much as in a lot of other contested states.  Anyway, Georgia is a toss-up.

[RFKFan68]

BATTLEGROUND GA!

[SaneDemocrat]

White number seems a tad low with all the white suburbanites in GA

[ProudModerate2]

With the national poll numbers we are seeing right now, this makes sense.
I only hope it keeps-up until November.

[tagimaucia]

White number seems a tad low with all the white suburbanites in GA

Abrams lost whites by about the same amount.  Suburban Atlanta whites are still a pretty Republican group, just less extremely so than they used to be. *Urban* Georgia whites are Democratic, but they're pretty tiny. And Rural Georgia whites tend to vote for Republicans by like 70-75 points.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

White number seems a tad low with all the white suburbanites in GA

Abrams lost whites by about the same amount.  Suburban Atlanta whites are still a pretty Republican group, just less extremely so than they used to be. *Urban* Georgia whites are Democratic, but they're pretty tiny. And Rural Georgia whites tend to vote for Republicans by like 70-75 points.

Griffin or someone did that math on this, and rural whites voted for Kemp by about 90 points lol. Talk about tapped out

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by Other Source on 2020-05-15

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MT Treasurer]

Probably going to be among the three closest states this year, even if Trump wins reelection.