Garin-Yart-Hang (for partisan clients): Biden +12

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/1269998849231409155

Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC and Priorities USA, so expect a Dem bias.
1223 likely voters
June 3-6

Biden 53%
Trump 41%

[here2view]

Sample's self-reported vote in 2016 was Clinton 48% and Trump 47%

[Red Willow]

Trump better hope Hammy's hypothesis of his voters not answering polls is correct.

[Illini Moderate]

Trump better hope Hammy's hypothesis of his voters not answering polls is correct.

I’m confused as to how that would cause an issue? If trump voters refuse to answer the wouldn’t any polling company just continue to call more until they had a sufficient amount for their sample?

[MidwestPollster]

It’s really a fascinating discussion. I was talking with some friends over the weekend and Trump supporters were guaranteeing to me that there is an incalculable quantity of trump voters that will vote In the general but cannot be quantified by polls before that point. I just don’t understand that logic. 

[BobbieMac]

Biden 53 Trump 41 UNS gives:

Biden 412 Trump 126

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump better hope Hammy's hypothesis of his voters not answering polls is correct.

I’m confused as to how that would cause an issue? If trump voters refuse to answer the wouldn’t any polling company just continue to call more until they had a sufficient amount for their sample?

Yeah I don't understand that either. This is why pollsters use weights.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/1269998849231409155

Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC and Priorities USA, so expect a Dem bias.
1223 likely voters
June 3-6

Biden 53%
Trump 41%

It's for Dem clients, but Garin-Yart-Hang is a respected pollster though, so it's not like this is some typical D internal.

Not to mention, this aligns with ABC/Wapo, CNN, Monmouth, Ipsos, etc.

[Pollster]

Trump better hope Hammy's hypothesis of his voters not answering polls is correct.

I’m confused as to how that would cause an issue? If trump voters refuse to answer the wouldn’t any polling company just continue to call more until they had a sufficient amount for their sample?

Not necessarily Trump voters, more likely registered/self-ID Republicans. But generally speaking, you're right.

[Ferguson97]

Trump better hope Hammy's hypothesis of his voters not answering polls is correct.

I’m confused as to how that would cause an issue? If trump voters refuse to answer the wouldn’t any polling company just continue to call more until they had a sufficient amount for their sample?

Yeah I don't understand that either. This is why pollsters use weights.

It's still a ridiculous theory, but I think the logic is that some Trump voters SAY they're voting for Biden because they care about what some random pollster thinks for some reason.

[MT Treasurer]

Who wins FL with a Biden +12 margin in the national popular vote?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who wins FL with a Biden +12 margin in the national popular vote?

Biden, easily.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Rs can no longer say the election is a tossup

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Who wins FL with a Biden +12 margin in the national popular vote?

Trump. Cubans are ultra giga titanium R, and the Miami spring break frat partiers are going to rebel against dems for enforcing lockdowns.

[SaneDemocrat]

Who wins FL with a Biden +12 margin in the national popular vote?

Biden, easily.

Kansas too
I know, just messing around.

I think Biden would win NE-02/MI/WI/PA/FL/AZ/TX/OH/GA/NC with this kind of margin, and probably one or two other states as well (IA? AK? UT?).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who wins FL with a Biden +12 margin in the national popular vote?

Biden, easily.

I know, just messing around.

I think Biden would win NE-02/MI/WI/PA/FL/AZ/TX/OH/GA/NC with this kind of margin, and probably one or two other states as well (IA? AK? UT?).

I think Alaska before Iowa tbh. Biden couldn't even post a lead in Iowa in the most recent PPP poll despite there being like three national crises all at once. That's also before accounting for polling systemically underaccounting for Republican support there.

[ProudModerate2]

We are seeing a handful of these double-digit lead polls.
Wow.

[Alben Barkley]

It’s really a fascinating discussion. I was talking with some friends over the weekend and Trump supporters were guaranteeing to me that there is an incalculable quantity of trump voters that will vote In the general but cannot be quantified by polls before that point. I just don’t understand that logic. 

Hint: It's not "logic."

[Alben Barkley]

Who wins FL with a Biden +12 margin in the national popular vote?

Biden, easily.

I know, just messing around.

I think Biden would win NE-02/MI/WI/PA/FL/AZ/TX/OH/GA/NC with this kind of margin, and probably one or two other states as well (IA? AK? UT?).

I think Alaska before Iowa tbh. Biden couldn't even post a lead in Iowa in the most recent PPP poll despite there being like three national crises all at once. That's also before accounting for polling systemically underaccounting for Republican support there.

The latest poll was effectively tied, same as the latest Texas poll.

So if Texas is gonna flip in a nationwide blowout, Iowa very well could too.

Can we stop with the myth that Iowa is titanium R, let alone moreso than Alaska? Where is the evidence for THAT?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who wins FL with a Biden +12 margin in the national popular vote?

Biden, easily.

I know, just messing around.

I think Biden would win NE-02/MI/WI/PA/FL/AZ/TX/OH/GA/NC with this kind of margin, and probably one or two other states as well (IA? AK? UT?).

I think Alaska before Iowa tbh. Biden couldn't even post a lead in Iowa in the most recent PPP poll despite there being like three national crises all at once. That's also before accounting for polling systemically underaccounting for Republican support there.

The latest poll was effectively tied, same as the latest Texas poll.

So if Texas is gonna flip in a nationwide blowout, Iowa very well could too.

Can we stop with the myth that Iowa is titanium R, let alone moreso than Alaska? Where is the evidence for THAT?

Look at a recent history of Iowa polling in races that were supposedly tossups

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just noticed that the pollster name is Spoonerized in the title.

(It's actually Garin-Hart-Yang.)

[Yoda]

Sample's self-reported vote in 2016 was Clinton 48% and Trump 47%

That might make me even happier than the top line #'s

[Progressive Pessimist]

Rs can no longer say the election is a tossup

Nah, they still will because they are essentially Eugene from 'Hey Arnold' in that episode where he's stuck in a tree with Arnold and Harold. Eugene keeps saying "any minute now" in regards to being rescued.

They are so very devoted to waiting for a Trump resurgence that may not happen. It's kind of sad.

[Ferguson97]

Rs can no longer say the election is a tossup

Nah, they still will because they are essentially Eugene from 'Hey Arnold' in that episode where he's stuck in a tree with Arnold and Harold. Eugene keeps saying "any minute now" in regards to being rescued.

They are so very devoted to waiting for a Trump resurgence that may not happen. It's kind of sad.

‘This Will Be The End Of Trump’s Biden's Campaign,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Atlas Poster For Seventh Time This Year

[ultraviolet]

Just noticed that the pollster name is Spoonerized in the title.

(It's actually Garin-Hart-Yang.)

Haha I remember thinking that earlier but I wasn’t sure. “Yart-Hang” seemed very strange