CNN/SSRS: Biden + 14%

[Eraserhead]

I mean even someone like me is leaning towards voting for Biden in the general election at this point (rather than Green or whatever) so that should tell you something. It has nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with Trump.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I mean even someone like me is leaning towards voting for Biden in the general election at this point (rather than Green or whatever) so that should tell you something. It has nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with Trump.

Same here. 

Whatever it takes to boot that man from the White House. 

[YE]

Honestly +14 is insane and probably unlikely to materialize. This poll is almost certainly an outlier. But Biden +10 or so is realistic at this point.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Hoo boy.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Just saw this and it's biased.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

His 1% among Democrats is apparently the lowest of all time for major party candidates in terms of attracting opposite party support.

I guess they found Pear Squad!

[Eraserhead]

His 1% among Democrats is apparently the lowest of all time for major party candidates in terms of attracting opposite party support.

I guess they found Pear Squad!

But I thought the Bernie Bros loved Trump!

[Ye We Can]

About what I'd expect right now.  Turns out wanting to go full Hoover on protesters outside the White House puts you in the same electoral position as Herbert Hoover.

[Buzz]

Obviously not good, but it’s June so who cares?

[BlueSwan]

Hi everyone. This is my first post on this forum after around a decade (or so?) of being a lurker. Seriously.

Anyway, I got bored the other day and came up with a Uniform Swing (UNS) calculator for the 2020 us presidential election. It isn't meant to be perfect, or necessarily a predictor, but its useful to be able to check polls against a UNS and see which states fall at different polling levels.

So with Biden 55, Trump 41 UNS gives:

Biden 413, Trump 125

Closest states:

Alaska - Trump +4
Iowa - Biden +2
Texas - Biden +3
Ohio - Biden +4

Welcome to the forum! Good first post.

[Nyvin]

I think we can confidently say at this point that the riots most certainly have NOT helped Trump.

This probably is too D friendly, but just toss it on the pile with the rest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think we can confidently say at this point that the riots most certainly have NOT helped Trump.

This probably is too D friendly, but just toss it on the pile with the rest.

Elliott Morris has suggested that there may be a partisan non-response effect occurring (i.e. Republicans are discouraged and less likely to answer polls), in which case this would likely be a temporary bump.  But it could also be the start of a real shift.

[pbrower2a]

We’re witnessing something crazy this cycle

What's crazy this cycle?

TRUMP!

[pbrower2a]

I think we can confidently say at this point that the riots most certainly have NOT helped Trump.

This probably is too D friendly, but just toss it on the pile with the rest.

Elliott Morris has suggested that there may be a partisan non-response effect occurring (i.e. Republicans are discouraged and less likely to answer polls), in which case this would likely be a temporary bump.  But it could also be the start of a real shift.

Not since Reagan in 1984 have we seen anyone get 55% of the popular vote for President.  The last time that a challenger got 55% of the vote against an incumbent President was 1932... when FDR trounced Hoover.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1269932565659516930

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Biden is probably not up by 14%. However, what this poll and most other recent polls show is that this country is completely fed up with Trump.

That sentiment is highly unlikely to change and while the election is not over, it's pretty clear that this year is NOT 2016. Trump can't get away with doing the same shenanigans and he can't use the "outsider" label which helped him in 2016.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's time to start shifting a few safe R states into the likely R column, if you think any of them are capable of cracking. For my part, I'll suggest Alaska. I was tempted to add Missouri and Montana, but this could be something of a fluke.

Don't get your hopes up on Missouri.

Add Montana to the list, though! And Utah too.

Elliott Morris has suggested that there may be a partisan non-response effect occurring (i.e. Republicans are discouraged and less likely to answer polls), in which case this would likely be a temporary bump.  But it could also be the start of a real shift.

Well, then the question becomes: will they be discouraged from voting in November? It really does seem like, in the polarized era, the swing voters that matter are not those who swing between parties, but those who swing between voting and not voting.

[SN2903]

I wonder what SN will say about this one, in a few hrs, this is funny polls, that corrupt Trump is now down by 15

Really, this board needs to stop worrying about what SN thinks.  

Calm down the vast majority of the poll was conducted before the jobs number. June 2-5. Jobs number came out June 5th. We need to wait till Tuesday Wednesday to see the results. This poll was at the height of riots.

Also as others have pointed out the sample is not realistic. I predict we will many polls Biden +3 to +5 by the end of the week. The jobs number bump we have to wait till the middle of the week to see that.

Also no poll matters until Labor Day

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E7oMBq1vkCM

[SN2903]

I mean even someone like me is leaning towards voting for Biden in the general election at this point (rather than Green or whatever) so that should tell you something. It has nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with Trump.

Same here. 

Whatever it takes to boot that man from the White House. 

and you call yourself a Republican? Please...

[Hindsight was 2020]

I wonder what SN will say about this one, in a few hrs, this is funny polls, that corrupt Trump is now down by 15

Really, this board needs to stop worrying about what SN thinks. 

Calm down the vast majority of the poll was conducted before the jobs number. June 2-5. Jobs number came out June 5th. We need to wait till Tuesday Wednesday to see the results. This poll was at the height of riots.

Oh you mean the riots that you said were going to give Trump a polling bump?

[Bidenworth2020]

I mean even someone like me is leaning towards voting for Biden in the general election at this point (rather than Green or whatever) so that should tell you something. It has nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with Trump.

Same here. 

Whatever it takes to boot that man from the White House. 

and you call yourself a Republican? Please...

You literally aren't a republican lol

[SN2903]

I mean even someone like me is leaning towards voting for Biden in the general election at this point (rather than Green or whatever) so that should tell you something. It has nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with Trump.

Same here. 

Whatever it takes to boot that man from the White House. 

and you call yourself a Republican? Please...

You literally aren't a republican lol

I'm a GDI. Goddam Independent

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's time to start shifting a few safe R states into the likely R column, if you think any of them are capable of cracking. For my part, I'll suggest Alaska. I was tempted to add Missouri and Montana, but this could be something of a fluke.

Don't get your hopes up on Missouri.

Add Montana to the list, though! And Utah too.

The reason I'd add MO before UT is there are too many UT voters just locked in for someone other than the D nominee. I can just about imagine what a winning Dem coalition in Missouri at the federal level would look like in 2020; I can't do that for UT without LDS endorsements/a UUP challenger, and I can't do that at all for many other safe R states. On reflection, though, SC probably flips just before MO and KS just after. There's probably a decent-sized gap between that bunch (with MS a fair bit behind them) and MT (which is in turn less winnable than AK).