Why do so many people think Alaska's Senate Race can be competitive

[OSR stands with Israel]

I honestly think Alaska is Safe R but some  people on here think Ernst has a better shot at reelection than Sullivan

[OSR stands with Israel]

who is saying that

cite/quote specific examples plz

IndyRep and even other posters on here like S019 and others say AK isnt Safe R (though he thinks IA is more competitive than AK)

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't think this seat will flip in the end, but there are some indictations it may be more competitive than anticipated:

- Sullivan just barely won in 2014, in a GOP wave year. With just 47% of the vote.
- Sullivan is a lackluster incumbent
- The challenger, Al Gross, who runs as independent with Dem support, is a very strong candidate. Fits the state he's running to represent very well. The dude, who is a fisherman, reminds me of Jon Tester, a farmer. Sullivan is a carpetbagger.
- Gross is raising fair sums of money
- AK has some tendency to either elect independent candidates or 3rd parties get a higher voter share than usual. In 2014, an independent was elected gov over a GOP incumbent. Murkowski won as write-in in 2010
- I dunno whether it will have an effect: Gov. Dunleavy (R) is unpopular.

We need to see more polls (or some polls at all) and look how it goes as election day nears.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As above, but also:

AK is going through one of its greatest economic crises of all time thanks to the oil issue (which is much worse, and going to be sticking around for longer, than the economic effects of COVID-19/lockdowns in other states), so assuming there is room for dramatic change (one way or another) in the state's political character is justified.

It's an elastic state.

The one poll we've had of this race, way back in 2019, showed Sullivan tied with a different challenger.

I think AK-SEN is likely R, between SC (bordering on safe) and IA (bordering on lean) at this point.

[Eastern Washington Democrat]

I recommend reading this Politico piece about the current state of Alaskan politics.  It goes into the various people trying to make the state less red behind the scenes.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/12/how-to-turn-red-state-blue-purple-alaska-politics-2018-216304


An interesting aspect of Alaska's elections are the unique demographics of the state.  Those who live in the most rural parts of the state are primarily Native Alaskans, who tend to vote Democrat.  If you look at the map of the 2018 Gubernatorial race, you can see this clearly, with Western Alaska and much of Southeast going blue.  The suburbs of Anchorage, while historically very red, are a place some believe Democrats can make inroads, assuming the national trends of suburbs getting bluer apply here as well.

Pertaining to this year's Senate race specifically, many view Sullivan's meager 2% win during the GOP's 2014 wave as a sign he isn't a very strong candidate, especially in the context of Romney's 14 point win two years prior.  Another slightly positive sign for Democrats is that Don Young's challenger in 2018 received the highest percentage of the vote any of his challengers had received since 1990.

When it comes to the two main candidates, one knock against Sullivan is that he first moved to Alaska in his 30s, while Al Gross has lived in the state his entire life, a point emphasized in the first campaign ad Al Gross released.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIGXgu7M58A


One big detractor for Al Gross, however, is the presence of minor party candidates, which have always tended to take away votes from Democrats in Alaska.  This year, there are three, Alaskan Independence Party nominee John Howe, Green Party nominee Jed Whittaker, and Independent   Sid Hill.


Sorry if this was a bit of a ramble, but I find Alaska's politics to be really interesting.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I honestly think Alaska is Safe R but some  people on here think Ernst has a better shot at reelection than Sullivan

Ernst has a 37 percent approval rating she will lose, and it is the Ds 51st seat. As far as AK its wave insurance and the Dems would have a majority anyways

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I honestly think Alaska is Safe R but some  people on here think Ernst has a better shot at reelection than Sullivan

If you took Alaska at face-value, you'd think it would be Kansas-level at the Senate (a pure Democratic shutout). And, what's more, the state hasn't given its electoral votes to a Democrat since 1964 and hasn't sent a Democrat to the House since 1972.  

But Alaska doesn't really fit into the typical red-blooded conservative red-state mold.  Besides the oil industry, a big part of the reason it votes the way it does on the federal level is because of gun rights (rather than the standard Christian conservative fundamentals of, say, a Wyoming or a Utah). 

I don't expect Gross to flip this seat, but Alaska seems to love its native sons/daughters.  And having grown up in and spent his whole life in the state, Gross has a fair amount of clout.  Sullivan is a pretty uninspiring incumbent, so I put this race into a similar category as MI-SEN: won't flip, but not necessarily a race upon which the incumbent party can sleep.  

[Oryxslayer]

As above, but also:

AK is going through one of its greatest economic crises of all time thanks to the oil issue (which is much worse, and going to be sticking around for longer, than the economic effects of COVID-19/lockdowns in other states), so assuming there is room for dramatic change (one way or another) in the state's political character is justified.

It's an elastic state.

The one poll we've had of this race, way back in 2019, showed Sullivan tied with a different challenger.

I think AK-SEN is likely R, between SC (bordering on safe) and IA (bordering on lean) at this point.

This, but less long term. The disruptions from Corona have probably made oil prices much more volatile than they were at the start of the year. There are less people driving than there were before the lockdown, something that will persist for a while. If possible, people are still working from home, since that is easier than making your office safe by CDC guidelines. Throw in the potential for subsequent virus waves and various related disruptions and you have a commodity vulnerable to speculation for the immediate future.

This is important because Alaska is more or less a democratic Petro-state, something which is rare around the world. Authoritarians thrive on rentierism, since the boom and bust cycles of the economy almost necessitate a firm fist when the economy is poor. Spending cuts and a weaker state fuel dissent in the public and dissatisfaction in the branches of power, necessitate repression and crackdowns. Except a democratic state does not have easy access to these tools. The governor, or those tied closest to him, are safe when the price is good and uniquely at risk of primary or GE loss when the price goes south.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think Alaska is Likely R at all three levels: POTUS, House and Senate.

It has the potential to be one of the most volatile states this year with the oil crisis, Pandemic, and Dunleavy's extreme unpopularity. The dearth of polling we have on the state is a shame, and hopefully we get some decent pollsters to try their hand here.

[Gracile]

Because it is a peculiar state electorally where Democrats have done well downballot despite it being Solid R at the presidential level (not unlike Montana). It has had a competitive Senate race during a presidential year before (2008) and Sullivan only won by 1% in the middle of the 2014 Republican wave - which could be considered a poor performance given Alaska's partisan lean. That said, it's hard to pin down how competitive this race really is because there has been no polling.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Begich came back in 2014 and lost by 3 pts, AK is a hard right state anymore. Even Ted Steven's and Lisa Murkowski were pro choice and AK gives its Citizens 1K a mnth in UBI Benefits

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think for 2 big reasons: AK is very volatile, and the otehr being that Gross is running as a Democrat-Independent-Libertarian in a state that usually has a high 3rd party vote share. Rs rarely get an outright majority in recent history in AK senate races.

[KaiserDave]

When I read this you could very well be describing me.

I consider Ernst more likely to win than Sullivan, and I consider the view Alaska Senate is Safe R to be.....ill informed to speak lightly.

I would restate the words of the fine gentlemen Jon Tester and Sir Mohamed, specifically Al Gross's I and not D, and Alaska's general volatility. Combined with the volatility of oil prices, it is really impossible to say this seat is safe.

[Lognog]

If we actually got a single (decent) poll of this race I think people would recognize it as a very viable and creative way for dems to win back a senate seat that help them lose their majority 6 years ago

[Libertas Vel Mors]

DK where the narrative of Dunleavy being "extremely unpopular" is coming from, but it is certainly not accurate, and seems to have a lot more to do with how certain posters/online elements feel than actual Alaskans. Morning Consult has his approval at 42-42, which isn't exactly great, but is not nearly Ige or Lamont levels (neither of whom ever gets mentioned in comparative similiar discussions in this forum of course).

[The Mamdani Virus]

Alaska is a difficult to poll state, to begin with, so polling there isn't always reliable. Alaska also has a strong affinity for independents, and Gross has put up a decent fundraising operation. Perhaps most importantly, the oil market has collapsed, and that will disproportionately impact states like AK and TX. Add in Dan Sullivan's mediocre performance in 2014, and the ingredients for an upset are present. I'll be bold and say Lean R, but bordering on Likely R.