N U T Part 3: The 2024 Election and a New America

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

CONNECTICUT

McAdams narrowly finished behind Crapo, though it doesn't matter much in this state that AOC won in a landslide similar to the rest of New England.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 57.6%
Crapo/Cotton: 18.7%
McAdams/Scott: 18.3%
Other: 5.5%

SENATE
Chris Murphy sails to re-election over Candace Owens.

Sen. Chris Murphy: 63.5%
Mrs. Candance Owens: 34.6%
Other: 1.9%

DEM HOLD

HOUSE

Though in a normal year CT-05 could be in play, it really wasn't here as Jahana Hayes won re-election easily.

New York

AOC's home state loves her, and this was one of her best states.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 62.1%
Crapo/Cotton: 18.8%
McAdams/Scott: 14.4%
Other: 4.7%

SENATE

Senator Gillibrand cruised to an easy re-election.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand: 68.8%
State Assemblyman Brian Kolb: 31.0%
Write-in: 0.2%

DEM HOLD

HOUSE

NY-1

The most Republican-leaning of the downstate districts, Incumbent Rep. Kara Hahn was in a close race with Fmr. Rep. Lee Zeldin, managing a narrow victory to win re-election.

Rep. Kara Hahn: 51.5%
Fmr. Rep. Lee Zeldin: 48.3%
Write-in: 0.2%

DEM HOLD

NY-2

An EVEN PVI district, this one saw tons of money thrown at it by Republicans as Trump Jr. ran for this district after dropping out for President. It was expected that with no incumbent (Rep. Christine Pelligrino resigned in mid-2024 due to ethics investigations about her taxes) this could be a close race, but with a strong D candidate in County Executive Steven Bellone, that hope was diminished, and shattered on election night.

County Executive Steven Bellone: 56.6%
Mr. Donald Trump Jr.: 43.1%
Write-in: 0.3%

NY-10

Despite switching to the Moderates, incumbent Rep. Max Rose narrowly won the Democratic primary as well, this being the only district where the Moderate got the fusion endorsement of the Democrats. Even if he hadn't gotten the endorsement, it seemed unlikely that this more liberal-leaning district would flip, especially with challenge pisser Joey Salads as the Republican candidate.

Democratic Primary:
Rep. Max Rose: 55.3%
Mr. Michael DeVito Jr.: 44.5%
Write-in: 0.2%

Rep. Max Rose: 54.1%
Mr. Joey Saladino: 40.4%
Mr. Michael DeVito Jr. (WF): 5.2%
Write-in: 0.2%

MOD HOLD

NY-22

The closest race in the state pitted Plattsburgh Mayor Christopher Rosenquest against Fmr. Rep. Elise Stefanik in this R leaning, North Country based district. It was a narrow race but in the end Democrats held on to this seat.

Mayor Christopher Rosenquest: 50.0%
Fmr. Rep. Elise Stefanik: 49.7%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

NY-23

Comprising of the area between Rochester and Syracuse, taking in cities like Ithaca, Auburn, and Cortland, this district has a Republican lean but not to the degree of the 22nd. As such it's not a surprise that Assemblywoman Anna Kelles won this seat against fellow Assemblymember Phil Palmesano.

Assemblymember Anna Kelles: 52.8%
Assemblymember Phil Palmesano: 46.9%
Write-in: 0.3%

NY-25

The most Republican district in the state was thrown into turmoil when incumbent Chris Jacobs was drawn into the Safe D 26th. Fmr. Rep. Chris Collins was, however, in the district. Jacobs swiftly moved into neighboring Aurora, just across the town line and into the district. However Collins was strongly backed by Trumpist elements of the party, causing a competitive primary. Calling Jacobs a carpetbagger and a "RINO" for voting to strip MTG of her committee assignments and other votes with Democrats led to a narrow win after recounts.

Republican Primary
Fmr. Rep. Chris Collins: 49.55%
Rep. Chris Jacobs: 49.49%
Write-in: 0.96%

Collins' nomination sparked a massive opportunity for Democrats here, who nominated Assemblymember Monica Wallace. Wallace was certainly one of the strongest contenders, having flipped a R seat in 2018 and held on reasonably comfortably in the following years.

The endorsement of the Moderates may have been what changed the race, as in the end Wallace narrowly flipped this seat by a slightly larger margin than Ds held the 22nd. It seems likely that the seat is a 2 year rental, however.

Assemblymember Monica Wallace: 49.8%
Fmr. Rep. Chris Collins: 49.0%
Write-in: 1.2%

DEM GAIN FROM R

This also meant that every seat in New England and New York was held by a D, or elected on the D line in Rose's case.

House standings:
Democrats: 45 (+1)
Moderates: 1
Republicans: 0 (-1)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

NEW JERSEY

It's not surprising that AOC won here, with strong turnout in urban areas counteracting Moderates making gains in the suburbs.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 59.2%
Crapo/Cotton: 23.3%
McAdams/Scott: 12.4%
Others: 5.1%

SENATE

As expected, Mayor Gusciora won this seat over Van Drew and Gottheimer's write-in efforts.

Mayor Reed Gusciora: 55.7%
Fmr. Rep. Jeff Van Drew: 38.7%
Others: 5.6%

HOUSE

NJ-2

Though potentially close in most years, Rep. Amy Kennedy won re-election easily, especially as Van Drew declined to run for the seat.

Rep. Amy Kennedy: 53.5%
Fmr. Freeholder Seth Grossman: 44.5%
Other: 2.0%

DEM HOLD

NJ-7

The first R pickup of the night, this district was drawn taking in the heavily R parts of western Jersey. No incumbent was in the district either, though some argue that Gottheimer could have made the seat competitive if he moved into it. 

Assemblymember Bob Auth: 56.7%
Fmr. Mayor Julia Fahl: 41.0%
Other: 2.3%

R GAIN

House standings:
Democrats: 55
Republicans: 2
Moderates: 1

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

PENNSYLVANIA

Increased turnout in urban areas and some WWC support coming back home to the Dems helped secure a good victory.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 52.9%
Crapo/Cotton: 30.1%
McAdams/Scott: 11.9%
Others: 5.1%

SENATE

Bob Casey Jr., though against party orthodoxy on abortion issues, remained pretty low-profile nationally, and easily won his race.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr.: 55.7%
Fmr. Rep. Scott Perry: 42.5%
Others: 1.8%

PA-10

With DePasquale districted out, Patty Kim decided to run in this Harrisburg and Lebanon based district. The race became safe D when Fmr. State Sen. and convicted felon Mike Folmer narrowly won the highly divided Republican primary. Folmer won by just 11 votes.

Republican Primary
Fmr. State Sen. Mike Folmer: 20.00%
County Commissioner Michael Pries: 19.99%
State Rep. David Hickernell: 19.81%
Mr. Terry Greene: 18.35%
Fmr. State Rep. Andrew Lewis: 16.34%
Others: 5.51%

Immediately the state party condemned Folmer and Pries ran a write-in campaign.

State Rep. Patty Kim: 53.1%
County Commissioner Michael Pries: 21.9%
Fmr. State Sen. Mike Folmer: 19.2%
Others: 7.8%

DEM HOLD

PA-11

This district consists of Pennsylvania's "War of the Roses" country, taking most of York and Lancaster Counties. Rep. DePasquale was redistricted here from the 10th, and decided to run here too. A close race pitted him against Fmr. State House Speaker Brian Cutler, leading to a narrow Cutler victory.

Fmr. State House Speaker Brian Cutler: 49.8%
Rep. Eugene DePasquale: 49.4%
Others: 0.8%

REP GAIN

House standings:
Democrats: 67 (-1)
Republicans: 7 (+1)
Moderates: 1

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

What is so nut worthy about a narrow Republican gain

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What is so nut worthy about a narrow Republican gain

The TL is becoming more realistic. That being said, that narrow R gain is in a district even Tom Wolf  lost in 2018 while winning by 17 statewide.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

OHIO

Though AOC did well with WWC voters, she still won by "only" 6 percent, a lower margin than expected. Meanwhile McAdams also did badly, barely cracking double-digits.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 45.2%
Crapo/Cotton: 39.4%
McAdams/Scott: 10.1%
Others: 5.3%

SENATE

With AOC winning statewide, and the R candidate still smelling of scandal, Sen. Brown won easily.

Sen. Sherrod Brown: 53.7%
Rep. Jim Jordan: 45.2%
Other: 1.1%

OH-3

Based around Dayton, this R-leaning district stayed D as Rep. Nan Whaley (elected in 2022) won re-election over Author J.D. Vance.

Rep. Nan Whaley: 52.3%
Author J.D. Vance: 45.6%
Other: 2.1%

D HOLD

OH-5

This Toledo to Sandusky district leans far less Republican than the 3rd, and even voted for Hillary in 2016. Toledo Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz was able to win relatively easily.

Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz: 57.7%
County Commissioner Matt Old: 40.3%
Others: 2.0%

D HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 75 (-1)
Republicans: 14 (+1)
Moderates: 1

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

WEST VIRGINIA

Bernie's shock win in 2020 didn't last as AOC's outspoken social liberalism and green policy helped Crapo win this state by one of his largest margins nationwide and one of only 3 to give him over 60% of the vote. This was also McAdams' worst state, the only one where he fell below 5%.

Crapo/Cotton: 60.7%
Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 30.2%
McAdams/Scott: 4.7%
Others: 4.4%

SENATE

As expected, Manchin's retirement meant this seat was basically a guaranteed flip.

Rep. Alex Mooney: 59.9%
State Del. Barbara Fleischauer: 40.0%
Write-in: 0.1%

REP GAIN FROM MOD

GOVERNOR

And most certainly as expected, Governor Swearengin lost handily after multiple unpopular environmental policies but also gaffes including a comment about ketchup packets, which ended in a group of protestors dumping a bucket full of ketchup on the Governor's head during a news interview in Craigsville.

State Sec. of State Mac Warner: 69.9%
Gov. Paula Jean Swearengin: 29.9%
Write-in: 0.2%

REP GAIN FROM DEM

HOUSE

2 Republican holds, nothing to see here.

House standings:
Democrats: 75 (-1)
Republicans: 16 (+1)
Moderates: 1

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

DELAWARE

As expected, AOC won handily in this state.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 59.8%
Crapo/Cotton: 21.1%
McAdams/Scott: 13.6%
Others: 5.5%

SENATE

Rep. Blunt Rochester handily won this seat, as expected.

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester: 60.2%
Fmr. State Treasurer Ken Simpler: 38.7%
Other: 1.1%

DEM HOLD

HOUSE

With Rep. Blunt Rochester running for Senate, there was a big opening for many in the state. This led to many contenders joining, including progressive activist Kerri Evelyn Harris, State Senator Sarah McBride, Fmr. Governor Jack Markell, and State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro (though the last was forced to suspend his campaign in the last 3 days of the primary due to sexual harassment allegations).

Democratic Primary
State Sen. Sarah McBride: 30.3%
Fmr. Gov. Jack Markell: 29.8%
Activist Karri Evelyn Harris: 27.7%
State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro: 7.7%
Perennial Candidate Scott Walker: 4.3%
Write-In: 0.2%

In the end, it was McBride who ended up on top, and went on to win over local loony bin member Lauren Witzke, who predictably went crazy about a trans person being her opponent.

State Sen. Sarah McBride: 64.2%
Activist Lauren Witzke: 35.5%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 76 (-1)
Republicans: 16 (+1)
Moderates: 1

[Tekken_Guy]

DELAWARE

As expected, AOC won handily in this state.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 59.8%
Crapo/Cotton: 21.1%
McAdams/Scott: 13.6%
Others: 5.5%

SENATE

Rep. Blunt Rochester handily won this seat, as expected.

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester: 60.2%
Fmr. State Treasurer Ken Simpler: 38.7%
Other: 1.1%

DEM HOLD

HOUSE

With Rep. Blunt Rochester running for Senate, there was a big opening for many in the state. This led to many contenders joining, including progressive activist Kerri Evelyn Harris, State Senator Sarah McBride, Fmr. Governor Jack Markell, and State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro (though the last was forced to suspend his campaign in the last 3 days of the primary due to sexual harassment allegations).

Democratic Primary
State Sen. Sarah McBride: 30.3%
Fmr. Gov. Jack Markell: 29.8%
Activist Karri Evelyn Harris: 27.7%
State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro: 7.7%
Perennial Candidate Scott Walker: 4.3%
Write-In: 0.2%

In the end, it was McBride who ended up on top, and went on to win over local loony bin member Lauren Witzke, who predictably went crazy about a trans person being her opponent.

State Sen. Sarah McBride: 64.2%
Activist Lauren Witzke: 35.5%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 76 (-1)
Republicans: 16 (+1)
Moderates: 1

How did a former governor lose a primary?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DELAWARE

As expected, AOC won handily in this state.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 59.8%
Crapo/Cotton: 21.1%
McAdams/Scott: 13.6%
Others: 5.5%

SENATE

Rep. Blunt Rochester handily won this seat, as expected.

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester: 60.2%
Fmr. State Treasurer Ken Simpler: 38.7%
Other: 1.1%

DEM HOLD

HOUSE

With Rep. Blunt Rochester running for Senate, there was a big opening for many in the state. This led to many contenders joining, including progressive activist Kerri Evelyn Harris, State Senator Sarah McBride, Fmr. Governor Jack Markell, and State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro (though the last was forced to suspend his campaign in the last 3 days of the primary due to sexual harassment allegations).

Democratic Primary
State Sen. Sarah McBride: 30.3%
Fmr. Gov. Jack Markell: 29.8%
Activist Karri Evelyn Harris: 27.7%
State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro: 7.7%
Perennial Candidate Scott Walker: 4.3%
Write-In: 0.2%

In the end, it was McBride who ended up on top, and went on to win over local loony bin member Lauren Witzke, who predictably went crazy about a trans person being her opponent.

State Sen. Sarah McBride: 64.2%
Activist Lauren Witzke: 35.5%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 76 (-1)
Republicans: 16 (+1)
Moderates: 1

How did a former governor lose a primary?

Ask Pat McCrory, he's about to lose one

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

DELAWARE

As expected, AOC won handily in this state.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 59.8%
Crapo/Cotton: 21.1%
McAdams/Scott: 13.6%
Others: 5.5%

SENATE

Rep. Blunt Rochester handily won this seat, as expected.

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester: 60.2%
Fmr. State Treasurer Ken Simpler: 38.7%
Other: 1.1%

DEM HOLD

HOUSE

With Rep. Blunt Rochester running for Senate, there was a big opening for many in the state. This led to many contenders joining, including progressive activist Kerri Evelyn Harris, State Senator Sarah McBride, Fmr. Governor Jack Markell, and State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro (though the last was forced to suspend his campaign in the last 3 days of the primary due to sexual harassment allegations).

Democratic Primary
State Sen. Sarah McBride: 30.3%
Fmr. Gov. Jack Markell: 29.8%
Activist Karri Evelyn Harris: 27.7%
State Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro: 7.7%
Perennial Candidate Scott Walker: 4.3%
Write-In: 0.2%

In the end, it was McBride who ended up on top, and went on to win over local loony bin member Lauren Witzke, who predictably went crazy about a trans person being her opponent.

State Sen. Sarah McBride: 64.2%
Activist Lauren Witzke: 35.5%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 76 (-1)
Republicans: 16 (+1)
Moderates: 1

How did a former governor lose a primary?

1) At this point in the TL, Markell hasn't been relevant for nearly a decade, while Harris and especially McBride are much more known at this point.
2) Some campaign finance issues come up in the last few days, and though similarly to IRL where he isn't actually guilty of anything, it's enough of a hiccup to throw off his campaign's balance at the worst moment.
3) Many prominent figures support McBride including Governor Carney.

[hurricanehink]

I love this, having the first trans-person elected to the House!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

MARYLAND

AOC won handily in this diverse state, albeit with a number of suburbanites cutting into her margin as they went to McAdams.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 63.1%
Crapo/Cotton: 19.2%
McAdams/Scott: 12.4%
Others: 5.3%

SENATE

Franchot easily prevailed over his scandal-ridden opponent. The GOP pulled pretty much any of their limited funds from this race after a spotlight was put on Impallaria's criminal record, especially his 1982 charge of 4 counts of assault with intent to murder.

Comptroller Peter Franchot: 71.4%
Delegate Richard Impallaria: 19.8%
Mr. Jerome Segal: 5.0%
Write-ins: 3.8%

DEM HOLD

MD-01

Despite the strong Democratic performance, Andy Harris held on without much trouble.

Rep. Andy Harris: 53.9%
County Councilman Ernest Davis: 45.8%
Write-in: 0.3%

REP HOLD

MD-04

This district consisting of the western panhandle of the state as well as Carroll county and parts of Baltimore and Howard counties, was about as R-leaning as the 1st but trending D fast. However, the Democrats got a star recruit in Frederick County Executive Jan Gardener, with a strong local brand in the most populous county in the district and support from the suburbs, she won narrowly, by less than 0.5%. over Representative Neil Parrott, elected in 2022 after the redraw.

County Executive Jan Gardener: 50.1%
Rep. Neil Parrott: 49.8%
Write-in: 0.1%

DEM GAIN FROM REP

House standings:
Democrats: 83
Republicans: 17
Moderates: 1

[Liminal Trans Girl]

where is part 1?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

where is part 1?

Part 1: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=292250.0
Part 2: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=293995.0

many of the things here aged very well, like Bernie winning all those closet socialists in WV, lol

[Liminal Trans Girl]

where is part 1?

Part 1: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=292250.0
Part 2: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=293995.0

many of the things here aged very well, like Bernie winning all those closet socialists in WV, lol

thanks

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

WASHINGTON D.C.

No surprises here, AOC won big. If McAdams didn't take up much of his niche, Schultz might have pushed Crapo down to 4th with his performance of 1.3% being one of his best nationwide, while Hunter saw his vote number being far less than expected, possibly since the Green niche was already taken by AOC.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 92.3%
McAdams/Scott: 3.3%
Crapo/Cotton: 2.1%
Others: 2.4%

SENATE

Incumbent Democrat (after switching from Independent) Mike D. Brown won easily.

Senator Mike D. Brown: 82.6%
Party Chair Darryl LC Moch: 10.9%
Fmr. BoE Member Patrick Mara: 6.2%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

HOUSE

Eleanor Holmes Norton appears to be determined to be a lifer in the house, still running at 87. Considering her large role in making DC a state, the seat is hers as long as she wants.

Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton: 90.3%
Perennial Candidate Natale Lino Stracuzzi: 8.3%
Write-in: 1.4%

DEM HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 84
Republicans: 17
Moderates: 1

[Liminal Trans Girl]

TTL me is probably going like "na na na, na na na, hey hey, goodbye" RN

[Liminal Trans Girl]

Update when?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Update when?

been busy with class etc

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

VIRGINIA

AOC won, though McAdams ate into her suburban margins heavily.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 52.8%
Crapo/Cotton: 26.3%
McAdams/Scott: 15.7%
Other: 5.2%

SENATE

With a sparse field against him, Kaine won re-election with no issues.

Sen. Tim Kaine: 62.2%
Mr. Jerry Falwell Jr.: 34.7%
Other: 3.1%

HOUSE

VA-01
Containing the Virginia peninsulas and several suburbs of Richmond and exurbs of DC, this seat leaned Republican. Held by Moderate Abigail Spanberger, she won out over challenges from Fmr. Rep. Rob Wittman and previous candidate for the seat Krystal Ball (whose support had eroded massively in the final days, mostly due to worries by liberals that Spanberger would otherwise lose).

Rep. Abigail Spanberger: 46.5%
Fmr. Rep. Rob Wittman: 40.8%
Commentator Krystal Ball: 12.5%
Write-in: 0.2%

MOD HOLD

VA-02

The Virginia Beach seat, held by Elaine Luria. Though a bit moderate, she stuck with the Dems and won out against City Councilman Rocky Holcomb.

Rep. Elaine Luria: 54.5%
City Councilman Rocky Holcomb: 45.4%
Write-in: 0.1%

DEM HOLD

VA-10

Jennifer Wexton announced she would not run for re-election due to Parkinson's disease in this Leesburg to Charlottesville seat. Delegate Sally Hudson would narrowly win the primary over middle-finger raiser Juli Briskman and Winchester Mayor John D. Smith Jr.

Democratic Primary
State Del. Sally Hudson: 36.3%
County Supervisor Juli Briskman: 36.0%
Mayor John D. Smith Jr.: 27.4%
Write-In: 0.3%

Hudson faced State Sen. Bryce Reeves in the general election, and won without much issue.

State. Del. Sally Hudson: 54.1%
State Sen. Bryce Reeves: 45.7%
Write-in: 0.2%

DEM HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 91
Republicans: 19
Moderates: 2

Presidential Map + Standings


Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DEM-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (DEM-SC): 25,890,851 votes, 56.33%
Sen. Mike Crapo (REP-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (REP-AR): 11,462,445 votes, 24.94%
Rep. Ben McAdams (MOD-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (MOD-VT): 6,255,110 votes 13.61%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (LBN-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (LBN-NY): 1,623,388 votes, 3.55%
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (GRN-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (GRN-CA): 458,450 votes, 1.00%
Mr. Howard Schultz (LBL-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (LBL-MD): 215,251 votes, 0.47%
Others/Write-in: 48,881 votes, 0.11%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

NORTH CAROLINA

With the shift of highly educated voters away from the Republicans, AOC managed to win with just over 50%.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 50.2%
Crapo/Cotton: 30.9%
McAdams/Scott: 13.6%
Other: 5.3%

GOVERNOR

AG Stein easily knocked down Climbing Dan.

State AG Josh Stein: 54.6%
Fmr. Rep. Dan Bishop: 44.2%
Other: 1.2%

HOUSE

NC-01

The renumbered Asheville seat was represented by Julie Mayfield since 2022.  She won re-election against former Meadows staffer Madison Cawthorn.

Rep. Julie Mayfield: 52.6%
Mr. Madison Cawthorn: 47.1%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

NC-05

Jeff Jackson retired to run for Lt. Governor, which he won. This suburban seat taking in Cabarrus and Union counties, as well as much of eastern Mecklenburg, this seat was heavily contested between State Reps Rachel Hunt and Larry Pittman. In the end, Pittman's extreme views on social issues, something Hunt highlighted heavily, did not play well in this district. Hunt won easily.

State Rep. Rachel Hunt: 54.9%
State Rep. Larry Pittman: 44.8%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM HOLD

NC-08

A Fayetteville based seat, the Lumbee tribe is located here as well. In this timeline, they ended up backing Democrats after President Sanders gave the tribe federal recognition. As such, Rep. William Richardson won without issue over State Sen. Danny Britt.

Rep. William Richardson: 54.1%
State Sen. Danny Britt: 45.7%
Write-in: 0.2%

DEM HOLD

NC-14

Incumbent Renee Elmers faced a tough race against State Senator Natalie Murdock in this district that wraps around the western Raleigh area. The highly educated suburbs ended up narrowly delivering this one to Democrats.

State Sen. Natalie Murdock: 50.0%
Rep. Renee Elmers: 49.7%
Write-in: 0.3%

DEM GAIN FROM REP

House standings:
Democrats: 100 (+1)
Republicans: 24 (-1)
Moderates: 2

Presidential map + Standings:

Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DEM-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (DEM-SC): 28,952,838  votes, 55.61%
Sen. Mike Crapo (REP-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (REP-AR): 13,347,565 votes, 25.64%
Rep. Ben McAdams (MOD-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (MOD-VT): 7,084,141 votes 13.61%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (LBN-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (LBN-NY): 1,623,388 votes, 3.56%
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (GRN-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (GRN-CA): 524,482 votes, 1.01%
Mr. Howard Schultz (LBL-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (LBL-MD): 245,739 votes, 0.47%
Others/Write-in: 55,904 votes, 0.11%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

SOUTH CAROLINA

With a split R vote as suburbanites flocked from the GOP to the Moderates, AOC managed a narrow win with a bit over 40%.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 42.3%
Crapo/Cotton: 40.9%
McAdams/Scott: 11.7%
Other: 5.1%

HOUSE

SC-02

This district takes in most of the white liberal center of Columbia, as well as the white conservative suburbs in Lexington County and Aiken. Incumbent Dem Steven Benjamin, formerly the longtime mayor of Columbia, won against State Rep. RJ May.

Rep. Steven Benjamin: 52.1%
State Rep. RJ May: 47.5%
Other/Write-in: 0.4%

DEM HOLD

SC-03

Held by Elizabeth Webster since her shock win in 2022, she was challenged by Jeff Duncan in a rematch, with local Spanish teacher Wayne Porter running for the Moderates.

Many Republican voters who still had issue with Duncan threw their support behind Porter, something that caused the vote to once again split just enough for Webster to win.

Rep. Elizabeth Webster: 35.6%
Fmr. Rep. Jeff Duncan: 35.3%
Mr. Wayne Porter: 28.3%
Other/Write-in: 0.8%

DEM HOLD

SC-05

Another 3-way race, this time between Democratic Rep. Mark Ali, Republican Former Rep. Ralph Norman, and Moderate Former State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex. Similarly to the 3rd, Norman was not terribly popular among the general public, leading to Ali winning by a little under 1%.

Rep. Mark Ali: 35.0%
Fmr. Rep. Ralph Norman: 34.1%
Fmr. Superintendent Jim Rex: 30.5%
Other/Write-in: 0.4%

DEM HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 105 (+1)
Republicans: 26 (-1)
Moderates: 2


Presidential map + Standings:

Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DEM-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (DEM-SC): 30,116,139 votes, 54.94%
Sen. Mike Crapo (REP-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (REP-AR): 14,472,366 votes, 26.40%
Rep. Ben McAdams (MOD-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (MOD-VT): 7,405,830 votes 13.51%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (LBN-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (LBN-NY): 1,953,652 votes, 3.56%
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (GRN-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (GRN-CA): 549,190 votes, 1.00%
Mr. Howard Schultz (LBL-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (LBL-MD): 256,618 votes, 0.47%
Others/Write-in: 58,681 votes, 0.11%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

GEORGIA

With rapidly diversifying Atlanta suburbs being favorable to the Democrats, AOC won this quickly D trending state with a slight majority.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 51.1%
Crapo/Cotton: 30.7%
McAdams/Scott: 13.0%
Other: 5.2%

HOUSE

GA-01

This coastal district saw a relatively close race between Rep. Van R. Johnson and State Rep. Jesse Petrea.

Rep. Van R. Johnson: 51.9%
State Rep. Jesse Petrea: 46.0%
Libertarian/Write-in: 2.1%

DEM HOLD

GA-03

This renumbered district covers south central Georgia, stretching up from Valdosta to Perry. Held by Dexter Sharper in one of the narrowest races in 2022, this district was simply to R to hold. State Sen. Russ Goodman brought this district back to the GOP.

State Sen. Russ Goodman: 54.6%
Rep. Dexter Sharper: 45.1%
Write-in: 0.2%

REP GAIN

GA-04

This Augusta-anchored district was represented by Lynn Gladney since 2023. She defeated 2012 R candidate for this seat, and State Senator, Lee Anderson, in the General.

Rep. Lynn Gladney: 53.7%
State Sen. Lee Anderson: 46.2%
Write-in: 0.1%

DEM HOLD

GA-05

This D-trending district includes Athens as well as growing suburbs in Newton and Rockdale counties, but also many rural and suburban Republican areas in between. Held by Kelly Girtz, he faced State Rep. Houston Gaines in the general.

Rep. Kelly Girtz: 52.9%
State Rep. Houston Gaines: 47.0%
Write-in: 0.1%

DEM HOLD

GA-10

This district, covering the northern Atlanta suburbs, including Roswell, Alpharetta, Buford, and all of Forsyth County, was rapidly shifting left. Karen Handel represented the district since 2022 after she moved there when the district was redrawn. She faced State Senator Michelle Au in the general election, and in a narrow race was beaten.

State Sen. Michelle Au: 50.3%
Rep. Karen Handel: 49.6%
Write-in: 0.1%

DEM GAIN

GA-13

Not notable because it was close, but more because MTG was the rep, Small dollar donations were sure to pour in for whoever the D was, who was Wendy Davis, a former city commissioner. She lost, but not by as large of a margin as one expected in this seat.

Rep. Marjorie T. Greene: 62.8%
Fmr. City Commissioner Wendy Davis: 36.8%
Write-in: 0.4%

REP HOLD

House standings:
Democrats: 115 (+1)
Republicans: 30 (-1)
Moderates: 2


Presidential map + Standings:

Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DEM-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (DEM-SC): 32,927,160 votes, 54.60%
Sen. Mike Crapo (REP-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (REP-AR): 16,161,057 votes, 26.80%
Rep. Ben McAdams (MOD-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (MOD-VT): 8,120,784 votes 13.47%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (LBN-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (LBN-NY): 2,151,966 votes, 3.57%
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (GRN-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (GRN-CA): 604,177 votes, 1.00%
Mr. Howard Schultz (LBL-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (LBL-MD): 278,474 votes, 0.46%
Others/Write-in: 64,119 votes, 0.11%