N U T Part 3: The 2024 Election and a New America

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Final senate update without pictures because formatting those actually takes up like 50% of the process.


Pennsylvania
Sen. Bob Casey Jr. v. Fmr. Rep. Scott Perry

Despite some rumblings of a Progressive challenge to Casey Jr., or him switching to the Moderates, no such thing happened.

POLLING AVERAGE: CASEY+9

Rhode Island
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse v. State Rep. Robert Nardolillo

A safe race in a safe state.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

Tennessee
Ms. Taylor Swift v. Rep. Scott DesJarlais v. Fmr. Sen. Bob Corker

Now this one is an interesting one. Not only has Swift brought considerable attention to this race, but the fact that Fmr. Sen. Corker announced a run after still scandal-ridden Rep. DesJarlais won the primary. Polling has shown an odd split, with Corker possibly having a damaging effect on Swift, with polls being closer before he joined the race.

Republican Senate Primary, TN
Rep. Scott DesJarlais: 35.6% ✔
Fmr. Rep. Diane Black: 32.7%
Lt. Gov. Randy McNally: 31.7%

POLLING AVERAGE: DESJARLAIS+2

Texas

Rep. Colin Allred v. Sen. Ted Cruz

Though this would be a close race in a normal year, this looks worse and worse for Cruz.

POLLING AVERAGE: ALLRED+4

Utah

County DA Sim Gill v. Fmr. Rep. Jason Chaffetz v. Sen. Mitt Romney

An odd 3-way race, but Romney is widely expected to win despite the split, eerily close to the 2022 election.

POLLING AVERAGE: ROMNEY+9

Vermont

Sen. Tim Ashe v. Fmr. State Auditor Thomas Salmon

Ashe is almost certain to continue Vermont's progressive streak.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE P/D

Virginia

Sen. Tim Kaine v. Fmr. Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr.

Virginia continues its leftward trend.

POLLING AVERAGE: KAINE+14

Washington

Sen. Maria Cantwell v. Mr. Joey Gibson

With basically no opposition in the primary, Cantwell is pretty much certain to win.

Washington Senate Primary
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D): 59.7% ✔
Mr. Joey Gibson (R): 10.8% ✔
County Executive Bruce Dammeier (R): 10.4%
County Councilman Dave Upthegrove (D): 9.7%
Fmr. State Rep. Dick Muri (R): 5.5%
Others: 3.9%

West Virginia

State Del. Barbara Fleischauer v. Rep. Alex Mooney

In probably the only truly certain flip, West Virginia has swung hard back into the R direction during Bernie's presidency.

POLLING AVERAGE: MOONEY+12

Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin v. Fmr. Sherriff David Clarke

Crapo and Clarke have been campaigning quite a bit together. It isn't helping.

POLLING AVERAGE: BALDWIN+9

Wyoming

Public Service Commissioner Mary Throne v. Sen. John Barasso

Blyoming will happen someday, but not today...

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE R

5 expected R gains so far, 4 from M, 1 from D.
1 expected D gain from R.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

By the way, I'm redoing all of the maps for redistricting, and hopefully I can make a nationwide map of them so I can use it for election night 2024.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Dario

Finally. It'd be his moment in the spotlight. After the rigged primary of 2020, Dario would carry the Green standard for 2024, and not only that, but be the first Green on a big debate stage.

"Good Evening America and welcome to the Presidential Undercard Debate. We have candidates here today that may be small compared to last night, but deserve to have their voices heard, and maybe even become the next President. This debate will be divided into....

.... we ask you to hold your applause throughout the debate, however we will ask you to clap as we introduce the undercard candidates.

Former Congressman Justin Amash!

Former CEO of Starbucks Howard Schultz!

and Former Youngstown, Ohio Board of Education Member Dario Hunter!"

The crowd was smaller than he hoped, but it was massive compared to what the Greens got in 2020.

He had spaced out and nearly missed something. An almost embarrassing miss.

"First we go to Mr. Hunter."

"Good evening America. My presence on this stage tonight comes as a surprise even to myself. I never believed I could actually get to talk to you directly.

My story is quite unique. I was born as a Muslim, but now I'm an ordained rabbi. I was fired from my synagogue because of my opposition to the Netanyahu regime. And on top of it all I am a gay man. But though it all I overcame. The experiences I had shaped me directly, and now I stand here because I know America can be greater..."

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Justin

"Now, to Mr. Schultz: You've expressed interest in intervening directly in Iran. Can you explain why exactly you feel this would be the best option?"

"Well, simply put, Iran has been a thorn in our side for far too long."

Man, this guy was an idiot. It'd be Iraq all over again.

"We need to help the freedom-loving citizens of the new revolution by any means necessary, and-"

"Hold on, hold on. All I'm hearing right now is more world-policing nonsense. This is the exact same argument we've heard time and time again about intervention in the middle east. And guess what? Almost every single time it has been a failure. All we've done in the past is open up a vacuum that allowed for the rise of radical organizations. I do support the people of Iran in their struggle, but by no means would I put our own boys in danger for it."

a few cheers. Justin thought of another line.

"The way I see it, all you are is a Libertarian who wants to bomb civilians in other countries."

Who won the undercard debate?
Fmr. Rep. Amash: 37%
Fmr. BoE Member Hunter: 29%
Mr. Schultz: 24%
Unsure: 10%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [September 10-17, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 43% (↓-1)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 19% (↓-1)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 19% (↑+2)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5% (↑+2)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 3% (↑+1)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 2% (↑+2)
Other: 0% (↓-1)
Undecided: 9% (↓-4)

Minor Parties See Bump After Debate
-CNN, 9/27/24

Rise of the Moderates: How Abolishing the EC May be Leading to the Republicans' Downfall
-FiveThirtyEight, 9/29/24

AOC on Hot Mic Heard Discussing Possible Constitutional Convention if Elected
-MSNBC, 10/1/24

AOC PREPARED TO RIP UP CONSTITUTION
-OANN, 10/1/24

"She and her commie friends obviously have no love of America and its institutions. The so-called "Moderates" are also just a front to pull away support from a true American candidate"
-Mike Crapo on TNN, 10/2/24

[We Live in Black and White]

Mike is so full of Crapo.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Jimmy

Jimmy Carter sat staring at the candles. The little bits of flame at the end of each digit. 1, 0, 0.

To think that America had nearly gone down in flames like these four years ago. Now a bright future seemed certain.

As he blew out the candles, he wished that, God willing, he would be able to see just a little bit of that future.


Happy Birthday, Jimmy Carter! Fmr. President Becomes First to Live to 100
-CNN, 10/1/24

[McGarnagle]

U
P
D
A
T
E

W
H
E
N
?

[Captain Chaos]

Just give the election to AOC already.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Bernie

President Sanders glanced up at the TV, already tuned to the VP debate. He already knew Alexandria would win the election, but he did feel the slightest pang of doubt in the back of his mind. Something could go wrong... he shook his head. That wouldn't happen. He had spaced out for so long that Chris Wallace had already gone through the rules of the debate.

Our first question is to Senator Cotton. Just a month ago Senator Harrison and Senator Ocasio-Cortez were the targets of a horrific attack in Minneapolis that killed over a thousand people. The bomber was identified as a supporter of Senator Crapo and yourself...

Well first off, that's a mainstream news lie. Anyone who is like that is not a supporter of us. It's clear to me that the real violent ones here are those in terror groups like ANTIFA, and that this was a clear false flag to paint myself and Senator Crapo in a bad light...

An aide rushed in.

"Mr. President, I need to inform you..."

the aide stuttered a bit, trying to get the next words out.

"Former President Trump is dead."

[McGarnagle]

Bernie

President Sanders glanced up at the TV, already tuned to the VP debate. He already knew Alexandria would win the election, but he did feel the slightest pang of doubt in the back of his mind. Something could go wrong... he shook his head. That wouldn't happen. He had spaced out for so long that Chris Wallace had already gone through the rules of the debate.

Our first question is to Senator Cotton. Just a month ago Senator Harrison and Senator Ocasio-Cortez were the targets of a horrific attack in Minneapolis that killed over a thousand people. The bomber was identified as a supporter of Senator Crapo and yourself...

Well first off, that's a mainstream news lie. Anyone who is like that is not a supporter of us. It's clear to me that the real violent ones here are those in terror groups like ANTIFA, and that this was a clear false flag to paint myself and Senator Crapo in a bad light...

An aide rushed in.

"Mr. President, I need to inform you..."

the aide stuttered a bit, trying to get the next words out.

"Former President Trump is dead."

What did he die of?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Fmr. President Trump Dies of Heart Attack at 78
-CNN Headline 10/3/24

Harrison-Cotton Debate Interrupted by Trump Death Announcement
-ABC News, 10/3/24

POLL: Harrison Handily Won Debate
-MSNBC, 10/4/24

POLL: COTTON WON DEBATE
-OANN, 10/4/24

Scott Unable to Get Much Screentime During Debate
-POLITICO, 10/4/24

The other candidates might as well pack it in, Delaney is gonna destroy the VP debate tonight
@TossupBot, 10/4/24 5:25 pm EST

Who won the Vice Presidential Debate?
Sen. Harrison: 49%
Fmr. Sen. Cotton: 25%
Fmr. Gov. Scott: 15%
Undecided/None: 11%

[McGarnagle]

N E X T          U
                      P
                      D
                      A
                      T
                      E        W H E N ?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

GUBERNATORIAL RACES:

Delaware:
State Sen. Nicole Poore v. State Sen. Bryant Richardson

There's no doubt that this state will stay D.

POLLING AVERAGE: POORE+18

Indiana:
Gov. Karen Freeman-Wilson v. Rep. Trey Hollingsworth

Freeman-Wilson has been a very "meh" governor after Buttigieg left to become Sec. of HUD. Some rumors of a mounting corruption scandal against the former Gary Mayor also make this race seem less likely to stay in D hands.

POLLING AVERAGE: HOLLINGSWORTH+5

Missouri:
Gov. Nicole Galloway v. Fmr. State AG Josh Hawley

After ascending to the Governor's office when Gov. Kander resigned to seek treatment for his PTSD and depression, Galloway has been effective and overall well-liked. Increasingly she has tied Hawley to Crapo, who polls badly statewide, though that is mostly in non-rural areas... this race is still very competitive though.

POLLING AVERAGE: GALLOWAY+2

Montana:
Gov. Mike Cooney v. Fmr. Sec. of the Interior Ryan Zinke

Cooney, like Bullock before him, is extremely popular in the state. It's unlikely he loses.

POLLING AVERAGE: COONEY+6

New Hampshire:
Gov. Steve Marchand v. State Sen. Chuck Morse

When Sununu announced he would not run for his old seat, Republicans wrote this state off.

POLLING AVERAGE: MARCHAND+10

North Carolina:

State AG Josh Stein vs. Fmr. Rep. Dan Bishop

Seems like Climbing Dan is gonna get knocked down...

POLLING AVERAGE: STEIN+8

North Dakota:

Fmr. State Sen. Min. Leader Mac Schneider vs. Gov. Doug Burgum

Burgum remains reasonably uncontroversial in this state.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE R

Puerto Rico:
Gov. Pedro Pierluisi v. Fmr. Sec. of Treasury Juan Zaragoza

Pierluisi has guided Puerto Rico decently through the transition to statehood, and it seems like he will win.

POLLING AVERAGE: PIERLUISI+10

Utah:

Gov. Rocky Anderson vs. Fmr. Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox vs. Mr. Burgess Owens

Anderson's approval is relatively good, and maybe he can manage to eke out a win here. However, Cox is bolstered by McAdams' presence up the ballot...

POLLING AVERAGE: COX+1

Vermont:

Mayor Anne Watson v. State Rep. Patricia McCoy v. Ms. Cris Ericson

Zuckerman lost in an upset, after some extremely controversial comments on vaccines.

Democratic Gubernatorial Primary, VT
Mayor Anne Watson: 47.8% ✔
Gov. David Zuckerman: 47.1%
Mr. Ralph Corbo: 3.3%
Write-in: 1.8%


Progressive Gubernatorial Primary, VT
Ms. Cris Ericson: 40.8% ✔
Gov. David Zuckerman: 40.6%
Mr. Christopher Helali: 11.9%
Write-in: 6.7%

POLLING AVERAGE: WATSON+16

Washington:
Gov. Jay Inslee v. State Rep. Brian Blake

Inslee seems set to become EPA Administrator if AOC wins, but nevertheless he is running for a 4th term as Governor. With no Republican winning 2nd, this seat is a D hold no matter what.

Washington Gubernatorial Primary
Gov. Jay Inslee (D): 55.7% ✔
State Rep. Ryan Blake (D): 10.3% ✔
Mr. Tim Eyman (R): 10.1%
Mr. Dori Monson (R): 8.8%
State Rep. Drew C. MacEwen (R): 7.6%
Mr. Charles L. Reed (R): 4.3%
Others: 3.2%

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

West Virginia
Gov. Paula Jean Swearengin v. State SOS Mac Warner

Swearengin's green policies have been predictably unpopular, and her election was seen by many as a fluke and "last hurrah" for Democrats in the state.

POLLING AVERAGE: WARNER+22

POLLS PROJECTION:
R+2 (IN and WV)
M+1 (UT)
D-3

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The Only Word to Describe VP Undercard Debate: Forgettable
-FiveThirtyEight, 10/5/24

Who won the undercard VP Debate?
Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado: 22%
Mr. Larry Sharpe: 21%
Fmr. Rep. John Delaney: 15%
Unsure/None: 42%

MAYOR IANNARONE SHOT
-Portland Tribune, 10/6/24

Relatively Unknown "Alliance of the 14 Words" Militia Claims Responsibility for Attack on Portland Mayor
-The Cascadian, 10/6/24

Mayor Iannarone in Stable Condition
-MSNBC, 10/7/24

FBI Reportedly Investigating the Aot14W
-CNN Headline, 10/8/24

FBI ORDERING INVESTIGATIONS INTO ANTI-COMMUNIST PATRIOTS
-OANN, 10/8/24

Mayor Iannarone Makes First Public Appearance Since Shooting
-ABC News, 10/10/24

"The attacks on myself, Mayor Iannarone, and many other left-wing politicians show a horrific trend that we must stop before it spreads. We can not allow more bloodshed borne of hatred."
-Sen. Ocasio-Cortez in Portland on 10/11/24

"We're seeing political violence on a scale that's terrifying, and I honestly am surprised AOC is still doing events in person. I think that is a strong statement that she isn't scared of these guys, that she's going to take them on when she is inaugurated"
-Mayor Andrew Yang on CNN, 10/12/24

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Political Violence at Levels Nearing Pre-Civil War
-CNN, 10/13/24

AOC, McAdams Camps Considering Virtual Attendance of Second Debate Without More Security
-MSNBC, 10/13/24

Alexandria

They had refused. Too costly, they said.

Now the Senator was back to 2020, attending the debate virtually.

"Honestly, why can't the Senator come here and debate me face-to-face? She's afraid her communist ideals will be truly revealed is what I say."

That motherf**ker with a massive sh**t-eating grin on his face...

"I'm not doing this because I'm afraid of debating you, Senator. I'm doing this because every day more and more of your supporters are saying they're going to kill me. They nuked a major city for f**ks sake!" oops, let it slip. Makes it stronger anyway... "You refuse to condemn your supporters who shot the mayor of Portland! You refuse to condemn your supporters that threaten anyone who supports me! What in the hell does that say about your vision of America?"

Cheers. Resounding cheers as Crapo blanched.

"I've told you, Senator, that I take a strong stance against hatred from all sides. I know that you still owe an apology for all those marxist mobs that looted our cities..."

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Crosstabs on the CBS Debate Poll show a clear divide: 97% of AOC supporters, 73% of McAdams supporters and 4% of Crapo supporters say Crapo is at least partially responsible for right-wing violence...

while 98% of Crapo supporters, 34% of McAdams supporters and 1% of AOC supporters believe AOC is at least partially responsible for left-wing violence.
@natesilver538, 10/14/24

Polls Show Little Shift in Election
-CNN, 10/14/24

Fear of Right-wing Violence Hindering AOC, McAdams Campaigns
-MSNBC, 10/15/24

Minor Party Debate: Schultz Crashes and Burns, Amash and Hunter Make Little Impression
-ABC News, 10/15/24

Although "Wokeness" is Still Alive, Democrats Continue to Shy Away, Focusing on Economics
-POLITICO, 10/16/24

It's Quiet on the Campaign Trail-Too Quiet
-The New York Times, 10/20/24

"If it were not for the reversal of Citizens United, I think AOC would be at a serious fundraising disadvantage right now"
-Mayor Andrew Yang on CNN, 10/21/24

Iranian Loyalists Pushed to Northeast Corner of Nation, is the End Imminent?
-BBC, 10/22/24




1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [October 14-21, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 45% (↑+2)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 21% (↑+2)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 20% (↑+1)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (↓-1)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 1% (↓-2)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (↓-1)
Other: 0% (+/- 0)
Undecided: 8% (↓-1)

[McGarnagle]

Looking forward to seeing the result!

[McGarnagle]

Still waiting

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Mohammad
Sarakhs, Iran
October 28, 2024

General Mohammad Bagheri had failed.

He had been so confident, and now? Those damn west-loving Zionist heathens were at his doorstep. He had hoped that perhaps his forces could retreat to the mountains and continue their resistance. That didn't materialize. At least not well. Some small forces of his might be able to cause minor issues for a few months, maybe a year or two if they were lucky. And now, in his hand, the letter from Turkmenistan, denying him entry. Yesterday, he had fled Mashhad hoping that the Turkmens would open the gates for him, but even their sympathetic regime - bribed, no doubt - had turned against him.

He had retreated to his temporary quarters. A hotel they had forcibly taken. He made his way to his room, his right hand dangling, his fingers brushing the pistol at his side.

He didn't even notice he was in his room until he had locked the door behind him. He stared blankly out the window, wondering how it could've gone so wrong.



A gunshot rang out. The General's guardsmen broke down the door, finding him in a crumpled heap. Iran had fallen.



GENERAL BAGHERI DEAD: IRANIAN CIVIL WAR MOSTLY OVER WITH PRO-DEMOCRATIC FORCES TAKING CONTROL
CNN, 10/29/24

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

FINAL DEBATE CANCELED AFTER GUNSHOTS REPORTED NEAR VENUE
-MSNBC, 10/30/24

"That's how we're fighting for you here in Georgia! That's how we're gonna move America forward! That's how we're gonna win!"
-Sen. Ocasio-Cortez during her last rally before election day in Atlanta, 11/4/24

"We're gonna make America Great Again! We will destroy the radical socialists tomorrow, and we are gonna do it big! Thank you!"
-Sen. Crapo, during his last rally before election day in Fort Wayne, 11/4/24

"It's why Phil and I are gonna fight for you! It's why we are blazing a new, better path for America that brings us all together!"
-Rep. McAdams, during his last rally before election day in St. George, 11/4/24



1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [October 29-November 5, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 47% (↑+2)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 23% (↑+2)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 20% (+/- 0)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (+/- 0)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (+/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 0% (↓-1)
Other: 0% (+/- 0)
Undecided: 5% (↓-3)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

btw, I will include a house map for the final results, however I am definitely not an artist so you'll have to deal with my 5 year old scribbles lol

[NewYorkExpress]

So, I'm assuming AOC and Harrison aren't going to live to inauguration day...

Which raises the question of who the Speaker of the House is right now...

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So, I'm assuming AOC and Harrison aren't going to live to inauguration day...

Which raises the question of who the Speaker of the House is right now...

Current speaker is Ro Khanna.

But don’t worry, they aren’t gonna die. The Minneapolis Attack will be the closest for them.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

ELECTION NIGHT: PART 1

Good evening, and welcome to the coverage of the 2024 election results. It's 6 pm and polls have closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

Starting off with the top of the ballot, presidential results have begun to come in:

Indiana Presidential Election: 1% Reporting
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 45.7%
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 29.1%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 17.3%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5.2%
Others: 2.7%

Kentucky Presidential Election: 1% Reporting
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 56.7%
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 28.3%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 8.6%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4.5%
Others: 1.9%

Although these are strong results for the Republicans so far, these are results from some of the most conservative areas of 2 strongly conservative states. What is extremely interesting though is Indiana's Senate race:

Indiana Senate Election: 2% Reporting
Rep. Greg Pence: 55.4%
Sen. Joe Donnelly: 42.5%
Other: 2.1%

Despite the face that this is a strong conservative area, Donnelly is doing quite well. We'll have to see if he keeps that up, or if this is just a counting bias or similar.