N U T Part 3: The 2024 Election and a New America
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Author Topic: N U T Part 3: The 2024 Election and a New America  (Read 13518 times)
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« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2020, 09:24:47 PM »

Y E S
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2020, 09:09:41 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 11:06:11 PM by Save a breath for the world »

THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION
Kansas City, MO

Entrance to Sprint Center
Sprint Center entrance Kansas City Missouri
User:Charvex / Public domain


The Democratic Convention began with extremely high hopes. President Sanders remained popular, as was his heir-apparent and now presumptive nominee Ocasio-Cortez.

At the beginning of 2024 it appeared that the party could split, as rumors of AOC allies creating the Socialist Democrats were passed around establishment circles. These rumors were mostly false however, and AOC won in a similar fashion to Bernie: a narrow loss in Iowa, a big win in NV, and a split moderate field on Super Tuesday.

Things weren't completely good, however, as security caught two armed men believed to be far-right extremists trying to kill multiple high-ranking Democrats. Luckily, this was the only incident, and was prevented easily.

Day 1 was devoted to The Moderates, with focus on figures such as Sen. Joe Cunningham, Sen. Doug Jones and of course Sen. Kyrsten Sinema speaking. Sinema was expected to withdraw her name from consideration, but did not, sparking minor outrage in online left circles.

Day 2 was for Expertise, a field that many detractors within the party felt AOC lacked. Speakers included Sec. of Transportation Chokwe Antar Lumumba, EPA Administrator Al Gore, Sec. of HHS Howard Dean, and Sec. of HUD Pete Buttigieg. All affirmed AOC's work with them as both a Represenative and Senator to craft legislation.

Day 3 was for Unity, including speeches from Primary rivals Mayor Andrew Yang, Governor Gavin Newsom, and Vice President Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar and Yang announced their withdrawal from the balloting process.

This would be the day balloting began.

FOR PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
1,991 needed to win
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 2,276 ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 1,487
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 74
Mayor Andrew Yang (D-NY): 69
Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 67
Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 11
Att. Paul T. Ferrell Jr. (D-WV): 2
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): 1

FOR VICE PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): By Acclamation ✔

Day 4 was for The Past, including Fmr. President Barack Obama, Sec. of State Michelle Obama, a video address from Fmr. President Jimmy Carter, and finally the big speaker of the night: President Bernie Sanders. The Clintons were absent, some speculating that they refused, others asserting that they were blocked out.

Day 5 was dedicated to Our Bright Future, with generally young, more progressive speakers such as Gov. John Fetterman, Rep. Carlos Ramierez-Rosa, Rep. Lee Carter, Mayor London Breed, and State Rep. Summer Lee, who introduced Sen. Jaime Harrison. He introduced Sen. Ocasio-Cortez.

Quote from: Excerpt from AOC's Acceptance Speech
As I said a little over 6 years ago, I can not put this into words. Thank you all.

...

I believe that we can make a better future for everyone.  I accept this party's nomination because we won't wait, we can not wait, we can't afford to wait- to change the world. We'll continue the progress we've made these past four years, and we will go beyond.

DEMOCRATIC TICKET FOR PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
SEN. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ/SEN. JAIME HARRISON


MOVE AMERICA FORWARD

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Official Portrait
Franmarie Metzler; U.S. House Office of Photography / Public domain
DNC Winter Meet 0498 Jamie Harrison (33210877215) (cropped)
Edward Kimmel from Takoma Park, MD / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
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« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2020, 03:18:42 PM »

1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [July 24-31, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 36% (↑+6)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 24% (↓-2)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 16% (↓-3)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (→ +/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 3% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 1% (↓-1)
Undecided: 15% (→ +/- 0)

The Conservative Case for McAdams
-The Washington Free Beacon, 7/27/24

Constitution Party Endorses Crapo, Will Not Field a Candidate
-Ballot Access News, 7/27/24

OANN Poll: AOC Ahead 8 Nationally, Undecideds Go Crapo+7 When Pushed
-OANN, 7/30/24

Democrat Hacks FiveThirtyEight Call OANN Poll "Dubious"
-OANN, 7/30/24

Gunfire Outside of AOC Rally in Omaha Kills 4, Gunman Part of Three Percenter Movement
-MSNBC, 8/1/24

Rep. Marjorie Greene: "Those anti-American scum deserve to get what's coming to 'em"
-CNN, 8/2/24

"Ocasio-Cortez wants destruction of our system. Crapo wants racism to go unchecked. We just want a better government for Americans.
-Rep. Ben McAdams in Manchester, New Hampshire

"These socialists and cloaked socialists keep saying racism is the issue, when it's really the destruction of our American way of life. The elites won't stop beating us down."
-Sen. Mike Crapo in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

"The vast majority of people in this country are better off than they were 4 years ago. We can't let that progress stop, and I have no intention of letting it stop."
-Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Tuscon, Arizona
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« Reply #28 on: June 30, 2020, 04:08:16 PM »

Trump Reportedly Having Health Problems
-ABC News, 8/4/24

Why AOC's Lead Should Worry Democrats
-POLITICO, 8/5/24

Crapo After Nazi Salute Given by Group of Supporters at Rally: "We're Americans, not Nazis"
-CNN, 8/6/24

Explosion at Stone Mountain Monument Causes Minor Damage
-MSNBC, 8/7/24

Antifa is Responsible, and Need to be Called What They Are: Terrorists
-OANN, 8/7/24

Amazon Appealing Ruling to Supreme Court
-Business Insider, 8/8/24

Head-to-Head Polling Shows AOC Far Ahead of Crapo, Narrowly Ahead of McAdams
-New York Times, 8/9/24

"We have to come to the reality that many jobs have been taken by automation. We need a better safety net to ensure that people don't fall deeper and deeper into the pit of poverty and despair. A Guaranteed Income is the best way to do this."
-Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Macon, Georgia

"You think money grows on trees? Of course it don't! The real problem here folks is that some people are killing the economy, then paying people like AOC to defend them. I won't have any mercy for 'em. I'd put 'em up against the wall if I could, but no, no. Justice will be served."
-Sen. Mike Crapo in Altoona, Pennsylvania

"What you hear on both sides is craziness. On one side, you hear screams of free money, causing money's value to go down and put everybody where they were, and on the other you hear Hitler's speeches of 90 years ago."
-Rep. Ben McAdams in Flagstaff, Arizona
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« Reply #29 on: June 30, 2020, 09:25:06 PM »

AG Teachout Orders Investigation of MI, PA, OR Republican Primaries, Cites "Unusual Reports" of Election in Rural Areas
-Washington Post, 8/11/24

The communists who Haley is in cahoots with are trying to steal the election once again. Any real American needs to oppose this extrajudicial and illegal investigation
@RepMTGreene, 8/11/24, 2:24 PM

Crapo: I'd "100%" Impeach Bernie-appointed Judges, "He's an illegitimate president and his judges are too"
-FOX News, 8/12/24

Big Tech is Nervous About AOC
-Business Insider, 8/13/24

Poll Crosstabs Continue to Show Polarization Between Urban White+Minority and Rural Whites
-FiveThirtyEight, 8/14/24

1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [August 7-14, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 38% (↑+2)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 23% (↓-1)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 16% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (→ +/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 2% (↓-1)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 1% (→ +/- 0)
Undecided: 15% (→ +/- 0)
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« Reply #30 on: July 05, 2020, 03:13:37 PM »

"She and I have been talking about it for quite some time, and I think she has come around to the idea. Look, I think her concerns are some of the best questions I still had about UBI even when I ran in 2020, but with the right protocols those issues don't even pop up."
-Mayor Andrew Yang on AOC's pivot on UBI, on Yang Speaks podcast, 8/14/24

President Sanders Announces "New War on Poverty"
-MSNBC, 8/15/24

Iranian Leader Khamenei Dead at 85
-CNN, 8/16/24

New Wave of Protests Erupt in Iran
-FOX News, 8/17/24

Far-Right Groups Converge at Stone Mountain
-The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 8/19/24

Reps. Steve King and Marjorie Greene Address Crowd of 2nd Amendment Supporters and Patriots
-OANN, 8/19/24

Anonymous DSA Member Who Attended Stone Mountain Gathering in Secret Says He Heard Several Plots to Kill AOC
-Jacobin, 8/20/24

AOC Says Her Campaign Will Step Up Security
-ABC News, 8/20/24

Supreme Court Will Hear Amazon.com Inc. v. Washington Case
-CNN, 8/22/24

Unveiling the New Polling Map Tracker
-FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/24



1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [August 16-23, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 39% (↑+1)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 24% (↑+1)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 15% (↓-1)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (→ +/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 2% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 1% (→ +/- 0)
Undecided: 14% (↓-1)
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« Reply #31 on: July 05, 2020, 04:17:06 PM »

Loving this timeline. Very interesting (though I think AOC would get curb-stomped in a national election).
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« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2020, 10:32:01 PM »

Loving this timeline. Very interesting (though I think AOC would get curb-stomped in a national election).
I think right now (and probably 2024) you're right, though afterwards as the new generations (where "socialism" is no longer a dirty word) vote, she'd have a better and better chance.

As far as this TL goes, she's got the support of an incumbent popular president (Bernie approvals are high singles in net positive at this point), she's played her cards right in this TL to appeal a little better to those outside of the hardcore socialist and progressive wings of the party (her VP pick signifies that pretty well, and she's also mellowing out slightly irl by my perception) and she has the added benefit of her two main opponents being either crazy right-wing or from a party with little infrastructure (the moderates are just over a year old).
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« Reply #33 on: July 13, 2020, 09:18:31 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2020, 08:04:31 AM by Weatherboy »

Let's take a break from the presidential election and take some looks at the Senate.

ARIZONA
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Fmr. Rep. Andy Biggs


Andy Biggs official portrait
U.S. Congress / Public domain
Kyrsten Sinema (cropped)
US House office of photography / Public domain

Sinema dropped out of the Presidential race just in time to file to run for re-election. Arizona is a continually democratic-leaning state, and with Sinema also receiving support from most Moderates (no Moderate Party candidate filed) she seems to be a shoo-in for re-election.

Poll Average: SINEMA+9

Democratic Senate Primary, AZ
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema: 81.3%✔
Mrs. Sheila Bilyeu: 18.7%

Republican Senate Primary, AZ
Fmr. Rep. Andy Biggs: 53.3% ✔
Fmr. Rep. Debbie Lesko: 30.4%
State Sen. Steve Smith: 16.3%

CALIFORNIA
Mayor London Breed vs. Mr. Elon Musk


Elon Musk Royal Society
The Royal Society / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Mayor Breed
Office of Mayor London Breed / Public domain

In one of the strangest races of the cycle, the Primary Senate election saw a nearly 4-way tie between Incumbent Moderate Senator Dianne Feinstein, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, and Conservative Pundit Ben Shapiro. all candidates were positioned around 21% of the vote, and numerous recounts ended with Breed and Musk narrowly making it. This is considered quite a competitive race, as Musk has support of the large tech companies, while Breed has much of the California politicians on her side.

POLLING AVERAGE: BREED+3

Senate Primary, CA
Mayor London Breed (D): 21.86% ✔
Mr. Elon Musk (D): 21.77% ✔

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (M): 21.71%
Mr. Ben Shapiro (R): 21.55%
Mr. Cenk Ugyur (D): 3.55%
Fmr. Mayor Alan Autry (R): 3.33%
Mr. Rocky de la Fuente (R): 2.45%
Mr. Zoltan Istvan (Lbn): 1.01%

All others under 1%

CONNECTICUT
Sen. Chris Murphy vs. Mrs. Candace Owens


Candace Owens by Gage Skidmore 3
Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Chris Murphy, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped)
United States Senate / Public domain

Owens may be a conservative star, but in this deeply Democratic state she stands little chance.

POLLING AVERAGE: MURPHY+12

DELAWARE
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester vs. Fmr. State Treasurer Ken Simpler


Kenneth A. Simpler
Oceantulip / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
Lisa Blunt Rochester official photo
US House Office of Photography / Public domain

With Sen. Carper retiring, incumbent Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester easily beat out minor opponents. Meanwhile only Fmr. Treasurer Ken Simpler ran. Rochester is almost certain to win.

POLLING AVERAGE: ROCHESTER+15

Democratic Senate Primary, DE
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester: 71.3%✔
State Rep. Debra Hefferman: 17.6%
Mayor Eric Scott Thompson: 11.1%


FLORIDA
Lt. Governor Chris King vs. Fmr. Mayor Francis Suarez vs. Rep. Charlie Crist


Charlie Crist 115th Congress photo
United States House of Representatives / Public domain
Francis Suarez
City of Miami / Public domain
ChrisKing2018
El Nic / CC0

Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson retired, and an interesting 3-way race has begun. Moderate candidate Rep. Crist remains in 3rd, but is taking nearly 15% of the vote in most polls.

POLLING AVERAGE: KING+3

Democratic Senate Primary, FL
Lt. Governor Chris King: 60.1%✔
Mayor Teri Johnston: 21.0%
Fmr. Mayor Wayne Messam: 18.9%

Republican Senate Primary, FL
Fmr. Mayor Francis Suarez: 47.7%✔
Fmr. State Att. Gen. Ashley Moody: 43.5%
Mr. Augustus Sol Invictus: 8.8%

HAWAII
Sen. Mazie Hirono vs. Fmr. Lt. Governor Duke Aiona


Duke Aiona
U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. Jerome S. Tayborn / Public domain
Mazie Hirono, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped)
United States Senate / Public domain

Not even close to a close race here in a titanium D state.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

INDIANA
Sen. Joe Donnelly vs. Rep. Greg Pence


Greg Pence, official portrait, 116th Congress
Eric Connolly / Public domain
Joe Donnelly, official portrait, 113th Congress
United States Senate Photographic Studio / Public domain

A unique race, the Indiana Democratic Party did not field a candidate in order to prevent the possibility of Pence winning with a plurality. Either way, Pence is favored in this race.

POLLING AVERAGE: PENCE+6

MAINE
State Sen. President Troy Jackson vs. Fmr. Governor Paul LePage


Paul LePage by Gage Skidmore
Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Maine Senate President Troy Jackson
207politics / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

A colorful, though not particularly close race, Jackson and LePage's rivalry has led to one of the most entertaining or annoyingly combative senate races this cycle, depending on who you ask.

POLLING AVERAGE: JACKSON+9

MARYLAND
State Comp. Peter Franchot vs. Del. Richard Impallaria


No image available
en:User:Cburnett / Public domain
Franchot2008official photo emai version web
Comptroller's Office / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)

With an extremely popular Democrat and a scandal ridden Republican, this race may see one of the largest margins.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

Democratic Senate Primary, MD
Comptroller Peter Franchot: 48.8%✔
Rep. Kweisi Mfume: 44.3%
Ms. Chelsea Manning: 6.9%

Republican Senate Primary, MD
Del. Richard Impallaria: 28.9%✔
Fmr. State Att. Gen. John Wobensmith: 28.3%
State House Min. Whip Kathy Szeliga: 23.3%
Mayor Raymond Morriss: 19.5%


MASSACHUSETTS
Sen. Elizabeth Warren vs. Mr. John Kingston III


John Kingston Head Shot
Calboarder24 / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
Elizabeth Warren, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped)(2)
United States Senate / Public domain

Despite assumptions that she would retire, Warren has elected to run for re-election. With little opposition, she's expected to win in a landslide.

POLLING AVERAGE: WARREN+25

MICHIGAN
Fmr. Health Director Abdul El-Sayed vs. Fmr. Rep. Fred Upton


El-Sayed, Abdul (cropped)
Fred Upton 113th Congress photo
US House Office of Photography / Public domain
Tamekia Ashford, Communications Manager / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

With Stabenow retiring, a crowded Democratic field emerged with Fmr. Detroit Health Director El-Sayed as the victor, though only barely.

Democratic Senate Primary, MI
Fmr. Health Director Abdul El-Sayed: 37.8%✔
Fmr. US Att. Barbara McQuade : 36.6%
Macomb County Executive Mark Hagel: 14.4%
Fmr. Rep. Bart Stupak: 8.9%
Fmr. Mayor Dayne Walling: 2.4%

Republican Senate Primary, MI
Fmr. Rep. Fred Upton: 51.9%✔
Fmr. State House Speaker Lee Chatfield: 48.1%

POLLING AVERAGE: EL-SAYED+5


So far:
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« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2020, 09:11:37 PM »

AOC Surprises Many, Says "I'd be open" to Moderates in Cabinet
-Washington Post, 8/25/24

"TREASURY SECRETARY PHIL SCOTT WHEN"
-KaiserDave, 8/25/24

Romney Leaves Republican Party, Will Run As Independent
-The Deseret News, 8/26/24

Despite National Wave, Democrats Luck is Running Dry in WV
-New York Times, 8/27/24

No Communication Coming from Tehran, Potential Coup
-CNN, 8/28/24

Major General Mohammad Bagheri: The Unrest Stops Now
-MSNBC 8/29/24

Iranian Military Retreats from Mahshahr as Protesters Take the City
-Al Jazeera, 8/30/24

"There is no question about it. Iran is on the brink of Civil War."
-President Bernie Sanders during press conference, 8/30/24
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« Reply #35 on: July 25, 2020, 07:50:05 PM »

Senate races continued!

MINNESOTA
Sen. Peggy Flanagan vs. State Sen. Minority Leader Jeremy Miller


Minnesota Senate President Jeremy Miller
Minnesota Senate Republicans / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)
PeggyFlanagan
Jonathunder / GFDL 1.2 (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/old-licenses/fdl-1.2.html)

Not an extremely interesting race, despite the initial prospects of MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell running, he decided to run for Congress to replace retiring Rep. Tom Emmer.

POLLING AVERAGE: FLANAGAN+10

MISSISSIPPI
Fmr. State Party Chair Jamie Franks vs. Sen. Roger Wicker


SenatorRogerWicker(R-MS)
United States Senate / Public domain
Jamie Franks
NatalieMaynor from Jackson, Mississippi, USA / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

In this heavily racially polarized state, Democrats stand little chance.

POLLING AVERAGE: WICKER+8

MISSOURI
Sen. Claire McCaskill vs. Fmr. State Rep. Marsha Haefner


Marsha Haefner at Business
Akneeps / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
Claire McCaskill, 113th official photo (cropped 2)
Office of Senator Claire McCaskill / Public domain

McCaskill's luck may finally run out in this reddening state. Her strategic decision to remain with the Democrats (to prevent a moderate-democrat vote split) has worked against her, with Republicans targeting her as a "socialist puppet".

POLLING AVERAGE: HAEFNER+6

MONTANA
Sen. Jon Tester vs. Ret. Navy SEAL Robert O'Neill


Navy SEAL Robert O'Neill CRC Public Relations / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
JonTester (cropped)
U.S. Congress / Public domain

Once again, Tester faces a close race, this time against the Navy SEAL who killed bin Laden.

POLLING AVERAGE: TESTER+3

NEBRASKA
Mr. Mark Elworth vs. Sen. Deb Fischer


Deb Fischer, official portrait, 115th Congress (cropped)
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio / Public domain
Mark Elworth
Krystal Gabel / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)

Incumbent Sen. Fischer faces minor opposition from former NE-03 D candidate and Legal Marijuana activist Mark Elworth.

POLLING AVERAGE: FISCHER+22

NEVADA
Sen. Jacky Rosen vs. County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian


Danny Tarkanian by Gage Skidmore
Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Jacky Rosen, official portrait, 116th congress
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio / Public domain

Rosen faces Tarkanian, who she is likely to beat once again.

POLLING AVERAGE: ROSEN+8

NEW JERSEY
Mayor Reed Gusciora vs. Fmr. Rep. Jeff Van Drew


Jeff Van Drew Official Portrait 116th Congress
U.S. House Office of Photography/House Creative Services / Public domain
Mayor W. Reed Gusciora
New Jersey Capital Cities / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

With Sen. Menendez all but forced to resign with resurfacing scandals, he opted not to run for re-election. A crowded Democratic primary saw Trenton Mayor Reed Gusciora edge it out. Rep. Gottheimer later tried to run as the Moderate party candidate, but was unable to thanks to the state's sore loser law.

Democratic Senate Primary, NJ
Mayor Reed Gusciora: 35.8%✔
Rep. Josh Gottheimer: 35.1%
Fmr. Mayor Dawn Zimmer: 12.2%
Fmr. Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin: 7.4%
Mayor Mike Venezia: 5.4%

POLLING AVERAGE: GUSCIORA+13

NEW MEXICO
Sen. Martin Heinrich vs. State Sen. William Payne


William H. Payne
U.S. Navy / Public domain
Martin Heinrich, official portrait, 113th Congress
United States Senate / Public domain

This was not the swingy state it once was.

POLLING AVERAGE: HEINRICH+19

NEW YORK
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand vs. State Assemblyman Brian Kolb


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NYS_Assembly_Minority_Leader_Brian_M_Kolb.jpg#filelinks
Official Assembly Headshot
Kirsten Gillibrand, official photo, 116th Congress
US Senate Photography / Public domain

As should be expected, this is not a close race.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

NORTH DAKOTA
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp vs. Rep. Kelly Armstrong


Kelly Armstrong
Eric Connolly; U.S. House Office of Photography / Public domainHeidi Heitkamp official portrait 113th Congress
United States Senate / Public domain

Despite original prospects of State House Minority Leader Joshua Boschee running, he ultimately dropped out to try and stop vote splitting.

This is Heitkamp's 3rd time going against the incumbent Representative, but it seems like this third try will be the charm for Republicans.

POLLING AVERAGE: ARMSTRONG+8

OHIO
Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Rep. Jim Jordan


Jim Jordan official photo, 114th Congress
United States Congress / Public domain
Sherrod Brown official photo 2009 2
Office of Senator Sherrod Brown / Public domain

Brown is still very popular, although Jordan is fighting hard. Crapo's bad performance so far is leading many to believe Brown has this.

POLLING AVERAGE: BROWN+7



3 expected R gains so far, 2 from M, 1 from D.
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« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2020, 08:22:37 PM »

Tehran City Council Votes 18-3 to Support the Mahshahr Insurgency as Protesters and Military Clash
-Al Jazeera, 9/1/24

"If we hadn't signed the Iran Deal, this would be resolved so much faster. Iran wouldn't have nukes"
-Mike Crapo on Tucker Carlson Tonight, 9/2/24

UNSCR 3031 Calls for Iran Ceasefire; Russia and China abstain
-NBC News, 9/4/24

"We will not bow to Western whims and Eastern cowardice... we have submitted our withdrawl from the United Nations"
-Major General Mohammad Bagheri after UNSCR 3031 Passed, 9/4/24

"Let's just go with the supply mission and see how it goes from there. Keep our boys away from the front lines."
-??? during briefing on situation in Iran. Audio quality is poor. Early 9/5/24

"Oscar Alpha Whiskey is a go."
-Transmission received at Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait, 9/5/24

IRANIAN "LOYALIST" FORCES RETREAT FROM TEHRAN
-CNN Headline, 9/7/24

AOC Coming to Minneapolis Tomorrow
-Minneapolis Star Tribune, 9/8/24

"This is our shot. Operation Dirty Commie is a go. WWG1WGA."
-Closing line of Email sent to Brendan Roster. Sent from a throwaway email.
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« Reply #37 on: September 01, 2020, 03:16:28 PM »

Video transcript of CCTV in front of Ray Jay's American Grill, Minneapolis, MN


11:53 AM. Red pickup truck parks across the street in parking lot.

12:44 PM. Police "sweeper" motorcycles ensure there is no traffic blocking the route to the Target Center.

12:49:27 PM. Black vans appear, presumably the beginning of the entourage.

12:49:33 PM. Man emerges from red pickup truck with unknown vest on his chest.

12:49:37 PM. Man shouts an unknown phrase.

12:49:40 PM. Man makes a pulling motion.

12:49:41 PM. End of tape.


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« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2020, 07:01:32 PM »

Alexandria

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sat in the back of the van, looking out the window. The threats against her were increasing, and she wasn't taking any risks. That's why she had her van actually be inconspicuous, coming through a few minutes after the fake "entourage". It was a smart set-up, she thought. No one could see through the dark tinted windows to the inside, and no one could really suspect it was-

a flash to her left. The driver screamed in pain as he looked straight at it. He hit the brakes, and the van with Senator Harrison crashed into their back. The sound came through right after, causing her ears to ring. The agent next to the Senator jumped out and looked in the direction of the flash.

Despite being unprotected, Alexandria opened her door as well, her hands covering her still-ringing ears.

"We've gotta get out of here." she practically had to scream the words to be able to hear them. What she could hear, clear as day, were the sirens.
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« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2020, 06:18:45 PM »

Large Explosion Reported in Downtown Minneapolis
-CNN, 9/9/24 12:53 PM

"We have reports of people being blinded by the explosion, people bleeding from their ears, it's chaos."
-MSNBC Reporter, 9/9/24 1:03 PM

Democratic Candidates AOC and Jaime Harrison Missing, Police Assume the Worst
-Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 9/9/24 1:14 PM

"I'm not feeling so good out here guys. I feel like I'm gonna throw up."
-ABC Reporter, 9/9/24 1:28 PM

"We did it. There's no way they managed to escape it. The fight isn't over yet. -Q"
-Post on 4chan, 9/9/24 1:31 PM

"Jaime and I are relatively fine and have sheltered in an apartment building. Sincerest thanks to the Rosa family who let us in."
-@AOC, 9/9/24 1:32 PM

"holy sh*t guys i just peeked outside and my geiger counter went crazy what the f**k"
-@heyheyitsjay5, 9/9/24 1:35 PM

"Fire crews have said that the blast shattered windows out to Niccolet Island and St. Anthony Park, and we've got a helicopter that shows that there's a 10 foot deep crater at the junction of Hennepin and Central."
-CNN Reporter, 9/9/24 1:43 PM

"We are now certain that this was a terrorist attack and assassination attempt all in one. We can also confirm that this was a so-called "dirty bomb". I'm asking all residents of the city to shelter in place for the next few hours...
-Mayor Jeremiah Ellison, in a press conference held at 2:03 PM
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« Reply #40 on: September 02, 2020, 07:59:36 PM »

It's chilling how realistic this is. Q people are really unhinged.
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« Reply #41 on: September 04, 2020, 06:22:29 PM »

"We are opening a probe to find out who is behind this horrible attack"
-FBI Director James Cole, 5:48 PM

"There are people coming in with signs of serious radiation poisoning. I believe that the crude nature of the bomb made the fallout much more significant than a more well-made bomb"
-Volunteer interviewed by CNN reporter, 6:01 PM

Fires Around City Put Out
-Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 9/9/24 6:53 PM

"We were able to do it pretty quickly, actually. The fires were contained due to the fact that rubble and roads blocked their path to expand further, plus it was not very windy today. We have put ourselves in danger to save others, which is what this job is all about. I'm glad to serve the people of this city."
-Firefighter interviewed by ABC Reporter, 7:01 PM

AOC and Harrison Transported to Undisclosed Location; Joint Statement Expected Around 8:30 PM
-MSNBC News, 7:43 PM

"We will not allow these domestic terrorists to thrive in our lands. They've already killed a thousand in Minneapolis. How much more senseless violence can this country take?"
-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 8:33 PM

"The beliefs of these extremists reminds us that hatred, bigotry, and prejudice are still alive here in America. We need to finally extinguish the flame of white supremacy that burns within our nation."
-Jaime Harrison, 8:41 PM

CCTV Footage from Restaurant Across Street From Blast May Identify Perpetrator
-NBC News, 9/9/24 10:43 PM

"This isn't the end. our fight continues. if they rig the election hellfire will rain down upon the communists and pedophiles in Washington. WWG1WGA.
Post from "Q", 9/10/24 12:01 AM

Estimated Death Toll of Minneapolis Attack is 1041 From Blast Alone
-CNN, 9/10/24

"The bomber has been identified as 27-year-old Brendan Roster, a native of Montana. Upon a search of his home, we have come across numerous documents, both physical and digital, linking him to the QAnon conspiracy theory. Several emails were self signed by the eponymous "Q" and an attempt to trace their IP address is ongoing. I am not authorized to divulge any further information at this time."
-FBI Spokesperson, 9/13/24
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« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2020, 04:43:46 PM »

Minneapolis Bomber was Outspoken Crapo Supporter
-CNN, 9/14/24

After Minneapolis Bombing, Concerns over Nuclear Silo Security Skyrocket
-MSNBC, 9/15/24

Socialism Must be Stopped by Any Means Necessary
-OANN, 9/15/24

Iran Loyalists Pushed Out of Cities in West
-ABC News, 9/17/24

"It's no surprise that the Saudis and American dogs are aiding the godless communist rebels"
-Major General Mohammad Bagheri, 9/17/24

AOC Sees Polling Spike after Minneapolis Terror, Signaling Sympathy
-FiveThirtyEight, 9/17/24



1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [September 10-17, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 44% (↑+5)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 20% (↓-4)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 17% (↑+2)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 3% (↓-1)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 2% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 0% (↓-1)
Other: 1% (→ +/- 0)
Undecided: 13% (↓-1)

"Protecting America from Nuclear Hijacking Act" Introduced, Allocates Millions to Increase Nuclear Silo Security
-FOX News, 9/19/24
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« Reply #43 on: September 08, 2020, 05:41:26 PM »

Republicans Have a Serious Fundraising Problem
-POLITICO, 9/20/24

New Democrat Police are Colluding with Antifa to Rig the Election
-OANN, 9/21/24

AOC Publicly Denies Help from Left-wing Militias in Security: "Let's not escalate this any further"
-MSNBC, 9/21/24

Dario Hunter Narrowly Makes First Debate
-CNN, 9/22/24

Debate Predictions: McAdams Likely to Bounce Simply from Getting His Name Out There
-FiveThirtyEight, 9/24/24

Ben

Ben McAdams smiled wide. This would be his ticket. If he can knock the two big candidates down, he'd be there to scoop up the pieces of whoever got in third to stop the other extremist.

The red light flickered on.

"Good evening America and welcome to the First Presidential Debate. I'm Lester Holt. Tonight the top 3 polling candidates are here to spread their message for you, and America as a whole... a second debate including lower polling candidates will be held tomorrow. We do ask you to hold your applause, except for right now as we introduce the candidates. They are...
Senator Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez!
Senator Mike Crapo!
and finally, Representative Ben McAdams!"

Cheers lit up the crowded auditorium. As the three candidates all walked to their podiums. Crapo on the right, Ben on the left, and AOC in the middle, at least from the viewer's perspective.

"Let's begin with opening statements. The candidates agreed to a random selection by dice roll. Usually this would be done by a coin, but, well, there's no three sided coin."

A chuckle or two from the crowd.

"By that dice roll, Congressman McAdams will speak first, followed by Senator Ocasio-Cortez, and finally Senator Crapo. Congressman McAdams your time starts now."

"Good evening America. I stand on this stage tonight as the face of a new, strong movement to break the current duopoly through a common-sense message. One that will bring this nation together, not tear it apart..."
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DeSantis4Prez
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« Reply #44 on: September 09, 2020, 12:42:35 PM »

Where can I find the other two parts?
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« Reply #45 on: September 09, 2020, 01:59:28 PM »

Part 1 and 2.
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« Reply #46 on: September 09, 2020, 02:10:51 PM »


Gracias Peebs
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« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2020, 11:16:49 AM »

Nneexxtt uuppddaattee wwhheenn??
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« Reply #48 on: September 15, 2020, 12:33:28 AM »

Nnneeexxxttt uuupppdddaaattteee wwwhhheeennn???
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« Reply #49 on: September 16, 2020, 12:06:50 AM »

Marjorie

Congresswoman Greene had her eyes closed on the couch. She didn't want to see that b*tch's face.

"The truth of the matter is that we still have work to do. We have come out of a Second Gilded Age with higher income inequality, where many people are stuck on the street with nowhere to go. We need to continue our movement to help people, not corporations."

Damn dirty commie...

She was so hopeful when she heard of what happened in Minneapolis. Maybe America wouldn't become Venezuela. But alas the plan had failed.

She opened her eyes when she heard Crapo.

"What we're talking about here is about the future of this country. And I don't mean that in a good way. We're looking at a choice where we fall to the forces of old soviet communism, and another where we pretend like communism in the USA is not an issue. The fact is that American Values will prevail. Any other possibility is fraud."

Debate Poll: Who won?
Sen. Ocasio-Cortez: 48%
Rep. McAdams: 24%
Sen. Crapo: 23%
Unsure: 5%
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