NBC/WSJ: Biden +7

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

Congrats! You're the newest person on my ignore list.

[Bidenworth2020]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I think it speaks more to polarization and less to anything about Biden-- Trump's approval is 45/53 in this poll, almost identical to the horserace, and Biden has far more upside among the undecideds in this poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He did have a small bump in March, but 538 had it topping out at just below 46%. We can't just "round up" and add "to 48%" to that number to make it sound better.

Even then he never broke his ceiling of low forties. There was a rally around the flag effect but people still weren't voting for him.

[KaiserDave]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

PV wins over 8 are not possible anymore

[Brittain33]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

Trump has literally been polling at like 41-43 the entire year so far, no matter what was happening.

His approval was 46 to 48% in late March for a few weeks.

He did have a small bump in March, but 538 had it topping out at just below 46%. We can't just "round up" and add "to 48%" to that number to make it sound better.

It got to 47.4% in RCP so you average both averages he got to 47%. If his average approval is 44 45% he likely wins

He got up to like 45.8% in 538 so if you average both of them, which isn’t kosher but whatever, you get 46.6 which just barely rounds up to 47, but you can’t then *round it up again* to get “46 to 48.”

[ProudModerate2]

Taken before the jobs before. We have to wait until at least Tuesday. Trump's approval should bump up too.

Is that before or after he was supposed to get the bump after the riots?

And don't forget, SN was also hinting on some kind of trump bump after Biden's "ain't black" comment.

[Alben Barkley]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

You are a troll and chicken little. The fact that you can see a poll like this and say it’s bad for BIDEN rather than Trump is borderline unbelievable. It takes really strenuous mental gymnastics and willful ignorance to come to a conclusion like that.

You have bats—t insane, completely unrealistic expectations for how well Biden should be polling in a severely polarized time when about 40% of the country is in a cult that will support Trump no matter what. What, you expect him to consistently be polling ahead by 20 points or something? I’m not sure even Reagan ‘84 did that. You can say that Biden SHOULD be ahead by blowout margins in a rational world, but that’s not America 2020. Fact is however he’s still ahead by a comfortable margin, by significantly more than Hillary or even Obama was at this point.

And as for the economy? This poll shows that voters still approve of Trump’s handling of jobs and the economy more, and STILL they prefer Biden. It’s not just the economy, stupid, anymore. You know why that is, at least in part? Because a lot of the biggest swings against Trump since 2016 have come from well-off, well-educated, white, suburban, formerly Republican voters who the economy is working just fine for. They oppose Trump DESPITE the economy, not because of it.

Biden +3 is not “lean Trump electorally” either by the way. At BEST for Trump it’s a toss-up. Since a uniform 1 point swing from 2016 would have been enough for Hillary to win, maybe not even that. And since this is not a +3 Biden poll but rather a +7 Biden poll in which he almost gets 50% (which Hillary never even polled close to on average), and still room to grow with undecideds/independents who seem to be leaning more towards him this time... it’s just completely absurd to take from this “Oh but if we assume 4 points are going to be shaved off Biden’s lead he’ll probably lose.” Who’s to say the lead won’t get bigger instead, anyway?

In no other race would we have people arguing that a candidate down in almost every poll by high single to low double digits, who’s losing in almost every swing state poll too, with his opponent closing in on a majority of the vote in poll averages, who we basically all agree has effectively no chance of winning the popular vote, STILL might be the favorite. People are overcompensating for 2016 to absolutely ABSURD degrees. It is embarrassing how much people are allowing that one election to cloud their minds from all reason.

And the worst part is they don’t even seem to understand what actually happened in 2016 and why, or how the polls and electoral environments differ between that election and this one.

[SN2903]

Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This is not true.  All the evidence and simulations suggest that Biden is a solid EC favorite under a Biden +3 PV scenario.

No Biden has to have at least a 5 pt lead going into the election or he is going to lose. Add +2 to Trump for 1. Incumbency and 2. He polls worse than his support

[Ferguson97]

Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This is not true.  All the evidence and simulations suggest that Biden is a solid EC favorite under a Biden +3 PV scenario.

No Biden has to have at least a 5 pt lead going into the election or he is going to lose. Add +2 to Trump for 1. Incumbency and 2. He polls worse than his support

Incumbency is a disadvantage when the country is in bad shape.

[ultraviolet]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

Good thing Biden is up 12 in some recent polls!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1270015747117461505

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1270015747117461505

The battleground state polls are basically useless lol, can we please stop trying to attribute meaning to them

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1270015747117461505

With the exception of Michigan, all those states were either about 3 or more points more Republican than the average in 2016. Michigan was about 2.35 points more Republican.