NBC/WSJ: Biden +7

[Tender Branson]

49-42 Biden

8 in 10 Americans say „things are out of control in the country“:

According to the poll, 80 percent of registered voters say they feel that things are generally out of control in the country, versus 15 percent who believe that things are under control.

That includes 92 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of independents and even 66 percent of Republicans who think things are out of control.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-80-percent-voters-say-things-are-out-control-u-n1226276

[Hindsight was 2020]

The polling looks more 2018 then 2016

[Tender Branson]

White women voters with a college degree are slaying Trump:

[Panda Express]

Stop with these plus 7 polls

[Podgy the Bear]

Other points of the poll:

1) Trump's job approval 45/53 (31 approve strongly/47 disappove strongly)

2) Biden leads in their aggregate 11 swing states 50-42.  The "swing states" include the usual plus CO, ME, MN, NV, and NH.

3) Trump leads Biden on the economy and jobs.  But Biden leads on everything else, mostly on "bringing the country together" 51-26.

[Tender Branson]

The polling looks more 2018 2008 then 2016.

[Panda Express]

8 in 10 Americans say "things are out of control in the country“

Well, yeah. I mean, come on. What did you expect would happen when a mentally deranged reality television star got elected?

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ always has a more favorable approval rating for Trump than other pollsters. I always wonder why.

Topline looks legit, not to mention Biden has still some room to grow in this among minorities.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The lead is between 3 to 5 pts not 7

[Hindsight was 2020]

The lead is between 3 to 5 pts not 7

Biden was up by 3 to 5 pts but then the Lady Graham scandal happened so Orthodox Jews will deliver Texas to Biden like they were going to for Ford in 76 before Chevy Chase made fun of him 🤩🤩🤩

[psychprofessor]

NBC/WSJ always has a more favorable approval rating for Trump than other pollsters. I always wonder why.

Topline looks legit, not to mention Biden has still some room to grow in this among minorities.

There samples always include higher percentage of Whites. In this one, Whites are 77% of the sample and White/Non-Hispanics 72%. They are modeling a whiter electorate than 2016.

[MillennialModerate]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

[wbrocks67]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

[MillennialModerate]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

[wbrocks67]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

Trump has literally been polling at like 41-43 the entire year so far, no matter what was happening.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

The belief that this is Trump's ceiling depends on the assumption that things can only get better.

The lesson of 2020 is that they can always get worse.

[wbrocks67]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

The belief that this is Trump's ceiling depends on the assumption that things can only get better.

The lesson of 2020 is that they can always get worse.

Not to mention again, the nationwide polling was really not much different when A) the unemployment was 4%, B) no protests and C) no coronavirus

[SN2903]

Taken before the jobs number. We have to wait until at least Tuesday. Trump's approval should bump up too.

[OneJ]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

So in other words out of all the polls this cycle (and many of the recent ones showing larger Biden leads than this), with such a stable Biden lead in the aggregate since pollsters started to track this race and most voters having already made up their minds with undecideds leaning heavily in Biden's favor for the most part you decided to cherry-pick this poll to concern troll over? Amazing.

[Ferguson97]

Taken before the jobs before. We have to wait until at least Tuesday. Trump's approval should bump up too.

Is that before or after he was supposed to get the bump after the riots?

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

Awful take. You're underestimating the partisanship of voters. We're NEVER going to see a bigger PV margin than around 7-8 points for a long time.

[SN2903]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

Trump has literally been polling at like 41-43 the entire year so far, no matter what was happening.

His approval was 46 to 48% in late March for a few weeks.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Pollsters love to put up these 7 numbers, but never give you the math of individual battleground states

[Brittain33]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

Trump has literally been polling at like 41-43 the entire year so far, no matter what was happening.

His approval was 46 to 48% in late March for a few weeks.

He did have a small bump in March, but 538 had it topping out at just below 46%. We can't just "round up" and add "to 48%" to that number to make it sound better.

[SN2903]

I’m going to get ripped for this. For being a troll and chicken little. But just pause for a second to consider this.

With the economy like it is, pandemic and his handling of the race riots - to be not down 7 right now is borderline horrific for Biden considering Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This poll makes me almost think the race is tossup, not lean Biden.

I'm not sure in what world +7 nationwide is a tossup. You are most definitely trolling.

If he’s only up 7 this is almost definitely his ceiling. You don’t think improvements in the economy, the riots settling down and the pandemic cooling off won’t bring back some independent voters back to him? If 7 is his ceiling then I would almost expect Trump to make up at least a few points between now and November. And Biden +3 is an electoral tossup.

It would have to be Biden +12 to feel relatively comfortable

Trump has literally been polling at like 41-43 the entire year so far, no matter what was happening.

His approval was 46 to 48% in late March for a few weeks.

He did have a small bump in March, but 538 had it topping out at just below 46%. We can't just "round up" and add "to 48%" to that number to make it sound better.

It got to 47.4% in RCP so you average both averages he got to 47%. If his average approval is 44 45% he likely wins

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden +3 is Lean Trump ELECTORALLY.

This is not true.  All the evidence and simulations suggest that Biden is a solid EC favorite under a Biden +3 PV scenario.