How does Gottheimer do in his primary?

[lfromnj]

Was previously calling him Safe but after seeing Fitzpatrick I can see an upset happening

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Safe - the one poll we've had indicates this. It's apparently much easier to run as a moderate Democrat when your party is out of power.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

[KaiserDave]

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

[DINGO Joe]

Was previously calling him Safe but after seeing Fitzpatrick I can see an upset happening

What happened to Fitzpatrick and what does that have to do with this?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Was previously calling him Safe but after seeing Fitzpatrick I can see an upset happening

What happened to Fitzpatrick and what does that have to do with this?

He faced a primary from a Trump wingnut, was expected to win overwhelmingly, and only won by 15. I guess I COULD see something similar happening here, but it feels like the left has triaged this seat and is concentrating on NYC.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Gottheimer will win easily, he is a perfect fit for this seat.

[We Live in Black and White]

This is very much not prime territory for a left-wing surge.

[DINGO Joe]

Was previously calling him Safe but after seeing Fitzpatrick I can see an upset happening

What happened to Fitzpatrick and what does that have to do with this?

He faced a primary from a Trump wingnut, was expected to win overwhelmingly, and only won by 15. I guess I COULD see something similar happening here, but it feels like the left has triaged this seat and is concentrating on NYC.

Well, Fitzpatrick is actually up by 24 and D turnout has been broad (strong) in suburban areas (opposed to narrow-weak R turnout), so i don't see the correlation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Oh, my bad. From what I know about his primary opponent she is a doctor who is very much in the vein of a Berniecrat.

[Abolish ICE]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he's moderate enough to lockdown that district instead of running as a DSA-type and then getting crushed in the GE as a result.  He does seem to get noticeably more hate from them than other Democrats with similar and I do sometimes wonder if that is partially due to Gotteheimer being Jewish (although this may have nothing to do with it).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

[Abolish ICE]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

I’d love to be wrong about this and I never use allegations of anti-Semitism as a “card.”  Perhaps you could elaborate as to why the AOC crowd hate him so much if that’s not the reason.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

I’d love to be wrong about this and I never use allegations of anti-Semitism as a “card.”  Perhaps you could elaborate as to why the AOC crowd hate him so much if that’s not the reason.

Hating blue dogs and new democrats is kinda their thing. Josh Gottheimer is in the blue dog caucus and the new democrats caucus. More people liked my post than yours. This is not rocket science.

[पिकाचु]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

I’d love to be wrong about this and I never use allegations of anti-Semitism as a “card.”  Perhaps you could elaborate as to why the AOC crowd hate him so much if that’s not the reason.

He's a moderate/center-left Dem who doesn't support some of the shibboleths like M4A and the Green New Deal. The lefties want someone who does.

[Abolish ICE]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

I’d love to be wrong about this and I never use allegations of anti-Semitism as a “card.”  Perhaps you could elaborate as to why the AOC crowd hate him so much if that’s not the reason.

Hating blue dogs and new democrats is kinda their thing. Josh Gottheimer is in the blue dog caucus and the new democrats caucus. More people liked my post than yours. This is not rocket science.

Imagine believing that whether something's true or not is determined by how many likes it gets on a random internet forum

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

I’d love to be wrong about this and I never use allegations of anti-Semitism as a “card.”  Perhaps you could elaborate as to why the AOC crowd hate him so much if that’s not the reason.

He's a moderate/center-left Dem who doesn't support some of the shibboleths like M4A and the Green New Deal. The lefties want someone who does.

Thank you for answering my question.  I maintain primarying Gottheimer with an AOC type would be akin to converting a Safe D seat to a Likely R seat for no reason and that Gottheimer in particular gets noticeably more hate than other Democrats with similar views, but this is still a reasonable enough explanation that I can give them the benefit of the doubt and have modified my post accordingly.  

[Badger]

This seat isn't exactly like West Virginia and it's political leanings, but it's way to middle of the road to run a hardcore left-wing candidate and expect not to lose.

[Abolish ICE]

This seat isn't exactly like West Virginia and it's political leanings, but it's way to middle of the road to run a hardcore left-wing candidate and expect not to lose.

Yeah, this is a suburban R+3, Trump +1 seat with a six figure median income.  A Berniecrat - to say nothing of an AOC-style bomb-throwing whacktivist - would get steamrolled here even in a Presidential election year.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

He wins commandingly. The guy isn't my ideological cup of tea to say the least, but he fits his district.

[पिकाचु]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

I’d love to be wrong about this and I never use allegations of anti-Semitism as a “card.”  Perhaps you could elaborate as to why the AOC crowd hate him so much if that’s not the reason.

He's a moderate/center-left Dem who doesn't support some of the shibboleths like M4A and the Green New Deal. The lefties want someone who does.

Thank you for answering my question.  I maintain primarying Gottheimer with an AOC type would be akin to converting a Safe D seat to a Likely R seat for no reason and that Gottheimer in particular gets noticeably more hate than other Democrats with similar views, but this is still a reasonable enough explanation that I can give them the benefit of the doubt and have modified my post accordingly.  

Eh, just to be charitable to his critics, I think it's fair to say that he's done more to brand himself as a centrist than anyone else in the NJ delegation and because the seat's in North Jersey, outside observers might be perceiving him as being more right-wing than necessary.

But yeah, I agree with your analysis for the most part. He's a good fit for the district and while I don't think getting rid of him with someone more to the left means the seat's an automatic loss, it adds a level for unnecessary difficulty.

[Abolish ICE]

I don't even know who his opponent is, which means this seat isn't a priority for the JD-types. Safe Gottheimer, and I don't expect him to underperform.

I've gotten mailers from one of his potential opponents, I forgot his name but he is running as a pure Trumpist who is running against sanctuary cities and somehow blaming congressional Democrats for the 2017 tax bill and how it affected SALT deductions. I get that it's a primary, but this district is not the same one that elected Garrett 17 years ago. Republicans would do well to realize that, because if a Republican does end up winning here again eventually I'd prefer a more moderate one to an outright reactionary nutcase like this guy seems to be.

This is not the kind of district to elect Berniecrats. Gottheimer will easily win the primary here. He's a bit too moderate for me, yet I am still going to vote for him. He is just too perfect for holding this district.

Isn't Josh like a real nasty guy? That's what I hear.

I'm not entirely sure. I personally haven't heard that. Regardless, I just do not want another Scott Garrett representing a district that they has no business in.

I meant his primary opponent, but that sounds about right for the district's GOP and it's why I expect Gottheimer to coast to reelection.

I think there was an Intercept hit piece against him a while back alleging that he was a jerk to staffers, but all Intercept pieces have to be taken with a grain of salt especially when they're focused on a Jewish politician.

Yeah, Gottheimer’s fine.  The AOC crowd just hate him because he’s Jewish.

This is not fair and is a dangerous usage of the anti semitic card. I say this as a Josh Gottheimer stanner. Tankies have plenty to hate him for, and saying they just hate him because he is jewish is a big cop out.

I’d love to be wrong about this and I never use allegations of anti-Semitism as a “card.”  Perhaps you could elaborate as to why the AOC crowd hate him so much if that’s not the reason.

He's a moderate/center-left Dem who doesn't support some of the shibboleths like M4A and the Green New Deal. The lefties want someone who does.

Thank you for answering my question.  I maintain primarying Gottheimer with an AOC type would be akin to converting a Safe D seat to a Likely R seat for no reason and that Gottheimer in particular gets noticeably more hate than other Democrats with similar views, but this is still a reasonable enough explanation that I can give them the benefit of the doubt and have modified my post accordingly.  

Eh, just to be charitable to his critics, I think it's fair to say that he's done more to brand himself as a centrist than anyone else in the NJ delegation and because the seat's in North Jersey, outside observers might be perceiving him as being more right-wing than necessary.

But yeah, I agree with your analysis for the most part. He's a good fit for the district and while I don't think getting rid of him with someone more to the left means the seat's an automatic loss, it adds a level for unnecessary difficulty.

Good point, thanks again for the insight

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Moderate shill running in a district full of #elitist suburbanites who voted republican but flipped to dems b/c orange man bad= perfect fit for the district!