Chance Ds win the senate given Biden wins the presidential race?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This could be really problematic for SC nominees and passing any legistlation. Bernie Bro's can use the "tolf you so argument against Biden, and Rs won't suffer much long term consequences because of their small state advantage; they may even get enough senate seats to impeach and remove a D from office is Biden wins in 2020, and Biden is re-elected, or another D wins in 2024. 2020 could be +1 (+CO, AZ, -AL), 2022 could be -3 (-AZ, NV, NH), 2024 could be -7 (-WV, MT, OH, MI, WI, PA, ME, MN, NV) 2026 -3 (-MI, MN, NH), brining Rs to 67 seats

[eax]

I think it's about even. The absolute worst I can possibly see with Biden winning is only picking up Colorado and Arizona while losing Alabama. However, I also think the dems are favored in Maine and North Carolina, (where I think Cunningham will outrun Biden), so it's about even.

Also, there is Montana, which will not be affected as much by the presidential contest.

[andjey]

80%.

D gain: AZ, CO, NC, MT, ME
R gain: AL
D+4

51-49 D

Too early for 2022 and 2024, but my very early predictions

2022
D gain: PA, WI/NC
R gain: NH
D+1

52-48 D

2024
D gain: TX/FL
R gain: WV
0

52-48 D

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Only assuming Biden wins the presidential race automatically makes it more likely that the Democrats retake the Senate Majority because it cuts out all the scenarios in which the top of the ticket does really badly. A bare minimum win by Biden probably does not translate into control of the Senate, but Democrats are heading for something better than that at the moment and seem to be on course to take back that chamber, albeit narrowly.

Right now, I'm forecasting a 52D-48R chamber. If all I knew was that Biden had won the presidential race, I'd up that to 55D-45R (flipping GA-REG, KS and TX).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

A tie is definitely probable with AZ, CO and ME +1 of the vulnerable seats, but Ds have GA as a special and Daines look very vulnerable, since Cooney isnt being blown out in the Gov race. Also, Kobach havent been eliminated yet in KS senate race and he can cost Rs a seat. Ernst isnt unbeatable either

[Non Swing Voter]

60%.

It seems like their best path is AZ + CO + ME and then hope for one of the others to fall their way, presumably NC or MT.

[OBD]

I'd say 60%. With Biden (sort of) pulling away, and polling in states like AZ looking favorable, the chances are actualy pretty solid, especially if Biden holds on to a 7-8 point popular vote victory.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I'd say 60%. With Biden (sort of) pulling away, and polling in states like AZ looking favorable, the chances are actualy pretty solid, especially if Biden holds on to a 7-8 point popular vote victory.

Biden won't win by 7 pts

[Orser67]

It really depends on how much Biden wins by. If Biden wins the presidency with a 2-point national popular vote victory, Republicans are quite likely to retain the Senate. If Biden wins by 5 points, Democrats are probably at least 50-50 to take the Senate. If Biden wins by 10 points, than Democrats almost certainly win the Senate.