2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions

[S019]

2024 Senate



This map assumes King retires, I also expect several safe state retirements, but those won't change the map, King is the only swing state retirement that I expect.

The upper midwest seats all shift one rating to the right if the incumbent retires (MI/PA/WI), WV moves to Safe, if Manchin retires, MT moves to Lean R, if Tester retires. MI/PA may even move to tossup if Stabenow and/or Casey retire. If King stays, ME moves to Safe D


2024 Governor:



This map assumes that Scott, Sununu, Cooper, and Cooney win in 2020, and that Sununu retires to run for Senate in 2022. It is also assumed that Sununu was succeeded by a Democratic governor. If Scott loses in 2020/22 or retires, VT moves to Safe D, if Cooper loses in 2020, NC moves to Lean R, if Gianforte wins in 2020, MT moves to Lean R. If Sununu is still running for NH Governor in 2024, NH moves to Likely R, if a Republican succeeded Sununu, NH moves to Lean R

[S019]

Well I guess I'll bump this to update my pretty horrid ratings (reminder not to do ratings two cycles out)




VT is Safe D with a D incumbent and Likely D with an open seat, NH is Likely D with a D incumbent (not happening, lol) and Tossup as an open seat

Now the Senate:



PA moves to Tossup with a Casey retirement, I assume a King retirement (if he runs again it moves to Safe D), if Brown or Tester retire, their seats move to Likely R, and if Klobuchar retires, that moves to Likely D, everything else stays the same regardless of retirements. I went back and forth on NV and WI, but I think Tossup for both this far out is fair, if Democrats do unusually well in NV and/or WI in the midterms, then I will reassess. As for AZ, I really think Republicans will struggle there in a presidential year, three years from now, unless it's a pretty R friendly environment.