2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions
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November 29, 2021, 03:36:05 PM

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  2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions
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Author Topic: 2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions  (Read 6130 times)
Heebie Jeebie
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« on: June 06, 2020, 11:45:56 AM »

Hawaii
Senate:  Kai Kahele (D)
   
California
Senate:  Linda Sánchez (D)

Massachusettes
Senate:  Ayanna Pressley (D)

Maryland
Senate:  Anthony Brown (D)

Vermont
Governor:  David Zuckerman (D)
Senate:  Matt Dunne (D)

New York
Senate:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Washington
Governor:  Bob Ferguson (D)
Senate:  Maria Cantwell (D)

Rhode Island
Senate:  Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

New Jersey
Senate:  Bob Menendez (D)

Connecticut
Senate:  Chris Murphy (D)

Deleware
Governor:  Bethany Hall-Long (D)
Senate:  Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

New Mexico
Senate:  Martin Heinrich (D)

Virginia
Senate:  Tim Kaine (D)

Maine
Senate:  Jared Golden (D)

Nevada
Senate:  Jacky Rosen (D)

Minnesota
Senate:  Amy Klobuchar (D)

New Hampshire
Governor:  Dan Feltes (D)

Michigan
Senate:  Elissa Slotkin (D)

Pennsylvania
Senate:  Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

Arizona
Senate:  Kyrsten Sinema (D)

North Carolina
Governor:  Josh Stein (D)      

Wisconsin
Senate:  Tammy Baldwin (D)

Florida
Senate:  Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)

Texas
Senate:  Joaquin Castro (D)

Ohio
Senate:  Sherrod Brown (D)
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S019
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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2020, 05:47:13 PM »

2024 Senate



This map assumes King retires, I also expect several safe state retirements, but those won't change the map, King is the only swing state retirement that I expect.

The upper midwest seats all shift one rating to the right if the incumbent retires (MI/PA/WI), WV moves to Safe, if Manchin retires, MT moves to Lean R, if Tester retires. MI/PA may even move to tossup if Stabenow and/or Casey retire. If King stays, ME moves to Safe D


2024 Governor:



This map assumes that Scott, Sununu, Cooper, and Cooney win in 2020, and that Sununu retires to run for Senate in 2022. It is also assumed that Sununu was succeeded by a Democratic governor. If Scott loses in 2020/22 or retires, VT moves to Safe D, if Cooper loses in 2020, NC moves to Lean R, if Gianforte wins in 2020, MT moves to Lean R. If Sununu is still running for NH Governor in 2024, NH moves to Likely R, if a Republican succeeded Sununu, NH moves to Lean R
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 11:36:29 PM »

Senate:
-Arizona: Lean D
-California: Safe D
-Connecticut: Very Likely D
-Delaware: Safe D
-Florida: Toss-up
-Indiana: Very Likely R
-Maine: Lean D/I
-Maryland: Safe D
-Massachusetts: Safe D
-Michigan: Lean D
-Minnesota: Lean D
-Mississippi: Very Likely R
-Missouri: Very Likely R
-Montana: Toss-up
-Nebraska: Safe D
-Nevada: Lean D
-New Jersey: Very Likely D
-New Mexico: Likely D
-New York: Safe D
-North Dakota: Safe R
-Ohio: Toss-up
-Pennsylvania: Lean D
-Rhode Island: Safe D
-Tennessee: Safe R
-Texas: Toss-up
-Utah: Safe R
-Vermont: Safe D/I
-Virginia: Likely D
-Washington: Very Likely D
-West Virginia: Likely R
-Wisconsin: Lean D
-Wyoming: Safe R
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2020, 07:33:28 PM »



Retirements predictions:
1. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
2. Tom Carper (D-DE)
3. Rick Scott (R-FL) - to run for President
4. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
5. Angus King (I/D-ME)
6. Ben Cardin (D-MD)
7. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
8. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT)
9. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Primary defeat:
1. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)

Gun to my head:
OH and MT are D hold
TX is D gain
FL is R hold
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Laki
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2020, 08:47:29 AM »

R gain: AZ, ME, MI, MN, MT, NJ, NV, NM, OH, PA, WI
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2020, 01:43:13 PM »

R gain: AZ, ME, MI, MN, MT, NJ, NV, NM, OH, PA, WI
Is this a joke?
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Laki
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2020, 03:43:57 PM »

No but you're right i went too far. I just expect dems to lose a lot when they gain in power especially since the economy won't recover soon and i expect the covid crisis to lsst for years.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »

West Virginia is Safe R

Manchin is retiring and Alex Mooney will win that seat.

Manchin may retire for good, he may not run for Governor
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2021, 05:10:24 AM »

2024 Senate

Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WY
Likely R: WV
Lean R: FL, MT, TX
Toss-Up/Tilt R: OH
Toss-Up/Tilt D: MI, WI
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA

Likely: >90%
Lean: 70-90%
Tilt: 50-70%

I always assume every incumbent runs early on, even though that won't be the case.
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Chips
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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2021, 12:10:36 AM »

2024 Senate

Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WY
Likely R: WV
Lean R: FL, MT, TX
Toss-Up/Tilt R: OH
Toss-Up/Tilt D: MI, WI
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA

Likely: >90%
Lean: 70-90%
Tilt: 50-70%

I always assume every incumbent runs early on, even though that won't be the case.

Seems like a fair list.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2021, 07:39:02 PM »

Not going to bother with Governor's races before ahead of 2022.

As for the Senate:

Republicans gain West Virginia, Ohio and Montana

Democrats gain Maine (from Angus King), Texas, and Florida
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Very Pessimistic 😭😭😭😭 Xing
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2021, 11:03:30 PM »

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA, WI
Toss-Up: MI
Lean R: FL, MT, OH, TX
Likely R: None
Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WV, WY
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2021, 11:54:22 PM »

Brown will win just like Ryan can win in 2022
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beesley
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2021, 09:19:18 AM »

Senate -
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA
Likely D: ME, NM
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA
Tossup: MI, MT, OH, WI
Lean R: FL, TX
Likely R: WV
Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WY
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2021, 11:14:49 AM »

Governor -

Safe D: DE, WA
Likely D: --
Lean D: --
Toss-up: NC, NH (Likely D if D flip in 2022 & this assumes a R incumbent not named Sununu is the nominee)
Lean R: --
Likely R: UT, MT, MO
Safe R: ND, IN

VT is Likely R with Scott, Lean D if it’s an open seat, Safe D if there’s a D incumbent.


Senate -

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA
Likely D: ME, NM
Lean D: AZ, PA
Tossup: MI, MT, NV, WI
Lean R: FL, OH, TX
Likely R: WV, UT
Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, WY
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2021, 01:03:13 PM »

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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2021, 01:11:14 PM »

Brown, Whaley and Ryan will win locking down DC and PR Statehood, D's up 50/40 on Generic ballot, if Rs were up by that much the would say sweep😃😃😃

Generational D's for a Decade
Scott is easier to beat than Rubio
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2021, 06:51:01 PM »

Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WV, WY
Likely R: MT
Lean R: FL, OH, TX
Toss-up: MI, NV, WI
Lean D: AZ, PA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
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Centrist King Tom Suozzi
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« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2021, 08:52:26 AM »

Hawaii
Senate:  Tulsi Gabbard (D)
  
California
Senate: Kevin Paffrath (D)

Massachusetts
Senate:  Ayanna Pressley (D)

Maryland
Senate: Chelsea Manning (D)

Vermont
Governor:  Molly Gray (D)
Senate:  Jill Krowinski (D)

New York
Senate:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Washington
Governor:  Hilary Franz (D)
Senate:  Maria Cantwell (D)

Rhode Island
Senate:  Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

New Jersey
Senate:  Bob Menendez (D)

Connecticut
Senate:  Chris Murphy (D)

Deleware
Governor:  Madinah Wilson-Anton (D)
Senate:  Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

New Mexico
Senate:  Martin Heinrich (D)

Virginia
Senate:  Tim Kaine (D)

Maine
Senate:  Susan Collins (R)

Nevada
Senate:  Jacky Rosen (D)

Minnesota
Senate:  Amy Klobuchar (D)

New Hampshire
Governor:  Colin Van Ostern (D)

Michigan
Senate:  Mike Duggan (D)

Pennsylvania
Senate:  Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Arizona
Senate:  Kyrsten Sinema (D)

North Carolina
Governor:  Mark Meadows (R)  

Wisconsin
Senate:  Tammy Baldwin (D)

Florida
Senate:  Rick Scott (R)

Texas
Senate:  Ted Cruz (R)

Ohio
Senate:  Sherrod Brown (D)
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S019
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« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2021, 04:16:20 PM »

Well I guess I'll bump this to update my pretty horrid ratings (reminder not to do ratings two cycles out)




VT is Safe D with a D incumbent and Likely D with an open seat, NH is Likely D with a D incumbent (not happening, lol) and Tossup as an open seat

Now the Senate:



PA moves to Tossup with a Casey retirement, I assume a King retirement (if he runs again it moves to Safe D), if Brown or Tester retire, their seats move to Likely R, and if Klobuchar retires, that moves to Likely D, everything else stays the same regardless of retirements. I went back and forth on NV and WI, but I think Tossup for both this far out is fair, if Democrats do unusually well in NV and/or WI in the midterms, then I will reassess. As for AZ, I really think Republicans will struggle there in a presidential year, three years from now, unless it's a pretty R friendly environment.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #20 on: November 24, 2021, 10:19:15 PM »

FL and TX arent Tossup it's a 304 unless Covid Disappears

S019 thinks Crist and Val are gonna win and Demings was down 19 pts
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2021, 12:53:56 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2021, 01:02:38 PM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »



GOV MAP 23/24/25




SEN RACE

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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2021, 07:24:44 PM »

Senate
-Arizona: Toss-up
-California: Safe D
-Connecticut: Safe D
-Delaware: Safe D
-Florida: Lean R
-Hawaii: Safe D
-Indiana: Safe R
-Maine: Likely D/I
-Maryland: Safe D
-Massachusetts: Safe D
-Michigan: Toss-up
-Minnesota: Likely D
-Mississippi: Safe R
-Missouri: Safe R
-Montana: Lean R
-Nebraska: Safe D
-Nevada: Toss-up
-New Jersey: Safe D
-New Mexico: Likely D
-New York: Safe D
-North Dakota: Safe R
-Ohio: Lean R
-Pennsylvania: Lean D
-Rhode Island: Safe D
-Tennessee: Safe R
-Texas: Lean R
-Utah: Safe R
-Vermont: Safe D/I
-Virginia: Likely D
-Washington: Safe D
-West Virginia: Likely R
-Wisconsin: Toss-up
-Wyoming: Safe R

Governors
-Delaware: Safe D
-Indiana: Safe R
-Missouri: Safe R
-Montana: Likely R
-New Hampshire: TBA
-North Carolina: Toss-up
-North Dakota: Safe R
-Vermont: TBA
-Washington: Safe D
-West Virginia: Safe R
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#PACK THE COURTS
Solid4096
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« Reply #23 on: November 25, 2021, 09:04:10 PM »


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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: November 25, 2021, 09:21:03 PM »

Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown can sneek bye, Brown and Ryan have won every election


STABENOW isn't losing
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