2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 23, 2021, 12:36:09 PM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions  (Read 5476 times)
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,895
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 06, 2020, 11:45:56 AM »

Hawaii
Senate:  Kai Kahele (D)
   
California
Senate:  Linda Sánchez (D)

Massachusettes
Senate:  Ayanna Pressley (D)

Maryland
Senate:  Anthony Brown (D)

Vermont
Governor:  David Zuckerman (D)
Senate:  Matt Dunne (D)

New York
Senate:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Washington
Governor:  Bob Ferguson (D)
Senate:  Maria Cantwell (D)

Rhode Island
Senate:  Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

New Jersey
Senate:  Bob Menendez (D)

Connecticut
Senate:  Chris Murphy (D)

Deleware
Governor:  Bethany Hall-Long (D)
Senate:  Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

New Mexico
Senate:  Martin Heinrich (D)

Virginia
Senate:  Tim Kaine (D)

Maine
Senate:  Jared Golden (D)

Nevada
Senate:  Jacky Rosen (D)

Minnesota
Senate:  Amy Klobuchar (D)

New Hampshire
Governor:  Dan Feltes (D)

Michigan
Senate:  Elissa Slotkin (D)

Pennsylvania
Senate:  Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

Arizona
Senate:  Kyrsten Sinema (D)

North Carolina
Governor:  Josh Stein (D)      

Wisconsin
Senate:  Tammy Baldwin (D)

Florida
Senate:  Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)

Texas
Senate:  Joaquin Castro (D)

Ohio
Senate:  Sherrod Brown (D)
Logged
Clinton/Kaine/ Northam/ Biden/Warner voter for Youngkin
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,842
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2020, 05:47:13 PM »

2024 Senate



This map assumes King retires, I also expect several safe state retirements, but those won't change the map, King is the only swing state retirement that I expect.

The upper midwest seats all shift one rating to the right if the incumbent retires (MI/PA/WI), WV moves to Safe, if Manchin retires, MT moves to Lean R, if Tester retires. MI/PA may even move to tossup if Stabenow and/or Casey retire. If King stays, ME moves to Safe D


2024 Governor:



This map assumes that Scott, Sununu, Cooper, and Cooney win in 2020, and that Sununu retires to run for Senate in 2022. It is also assumed that Sununu was succeeded by a Democratic governor. If Scott loses in 2020/22 or retires, VT moves to Safe D, if Cooper loses in 2020, NC moves to Lean R, if Gianforte wins in 2020, MT moves to Lean R. If Sununu is still running for NH Governor in 2024, NH moves to Likely R, if a Republican succeeded Sununu, NH moves to Lean R
Logged
Tekken_Guy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,439
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 11:36:29 PM »

Senate:
-Arizona: Lean D
-California: Safe D
-Connecticut: Very Likely D
-Delaware: Safe D
-Florida: Toss-up
-Indiana: Very Likely R
-Maine: Lean D/I
-Maryland: Safe D
-Massachusetts: Safe D
-Michigan: Lean D
-Minnesota: Lean D
-Mississippi: Very Likely R
-Missouri: Very Likely R
-Montana: Toss-up
-Nebraska: Safe D
-Nevada: Lean D
-New Jersey: Very Likely D
-New Mexico: Likely D
-New York: Safe D
-North Dakota: Safe R
-Ohio: Toss-up
-Pennsylvania: Lean D
-Rhode Island: Safe D
-Tennessee: Safe R
-Texas: Toss-up
-Utah: Safe R
-Vermont: Safe D/I
-Virginia: Likely D
-Washington: Very Likely D
-West Virginia: Likely R
-Wisconsin: Lean D
-Wyoming: Safe R
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,421
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2020, 07:33:28 PM »



Retirements predictions:
1. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
2. Tom Carper (D-DE)
3. Rick Scott (R-FL) - to run for President
4. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
5. Angus King (I/D-ME)
6. Ben Cardin (D-MD)
7. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
8. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT)
9. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Primary defeat:
1. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)

Gun to my head:
OH and MT are D hold
TX is D gain
FL is R hold
Logged
Laki
Lakigigar
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,450
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.13, S: -4.72

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2020, 08:47:29 AM »

R gain: AZ, ME, MI, MN, MT, NJ, NV, NM, OH, PA, WI
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,421
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2020, 01:43:13 PM »

R gain: AZ, ME, MI, MN, MT, NJ, NV, NM, OH, PA, WI
Is this a joke?
Logged
Laki
Lakigigar
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,450
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.13, S: -4.72

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2020, 03:43:57 PM »

No but you're right i went too far. I just expect dems to lose a lot when they gain in power especially since the economy won't recover soon and i expect the covid crisis to lsst for years.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,690
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »

West Virginia is Safe R

Manchin is retiring and Alex Mooney will win that seat.

Manchin may retire for good, he may not run for Governor
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,799
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2021, 05:10:24 AM »

2024 Senate

Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WY
Likely R: WV
Lean R: FL, MT, TX
Toss-Up/Tilt R: OH
Toss-Up/Tilt D: MI, WI
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA

Likely: >90%
Lean: 70-90%
Tilt: 50-70%

I always assume every incumbent runs early on, even though that won't be the case.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2021, 12:10:36 AM »

2024 Senate

Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WY
Likely R: WV
Lean R: FL, MT, TX
Toss-Up/Tilt R: OH
Toss-Up/Tilt D: MI, WI
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA

Likely: >90%
Lean: 70-90%
Tilt: 50-70%

I always assume every incumbent runs early on, even though that won't be the case.

Seems like a fair list.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,193
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2021, 07:39:02 PM »

Not going to bother with Governor's races before ahead of 2022.

As for the Senate:

Republicans gain West Virginia, Ohio and Montana

Democrats gain Maine (from Angus King), Texas, and Florida
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,912
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2021, 11:03:30 PM »

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA, WI
Toss-Up: MI
Lean R: FL, MT, OH, TX
Likely R: None
Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WV, WY
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,698
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2021, 11:54:22 PM »

Brown will win just like Ryan can win in 2022
Logged
Fund Local and National Public Transport
beesley
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,554
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2021, 09:19:18 AM »

Senate -
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA
Likely D: ME, NM
Lean D: AZ, NV, PA
Tossup: MI, MT, OH, WI
Lean R: FL, TX
Likely R: WV
Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WY
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,253
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2021, 11:14:49 AM »

Governor -

Safe D: DE, WA
Likely D: --
Lean D: --
Toss-up: NC, NH (Likely D if D flip in 2022 & this assumes a R incumbent not named Sununu is the nominee)
Lean R: --
Likely R: UT, MT, MO
Safe R: ND, IN

VT is Likely R with Scott, Lean D if it’s an open seat, Safe D if there’s a D incumbent.


Senate -

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA
Likely D: ME, NM
Lean D: AZ, PA
Tossup: MI, MT, NV, WI
Lean R: FL, OH, TX
Likely R: WV, UT
Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, WY
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,698
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2021, 01:03:13 PM »

Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,698
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2021, 01:11:14 PM »

Brown, Whaley and Ryan will win locking down DC and PR Statehood, D's up 50/40 on Generic ballot, if Rs were up by that much the would say sweep😃😃😃

Generational D's for a Decade
Scott is easier to beat than Rubio
Logged
Tekken_Guy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,439
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2021, 06:51:01 PM »

Safe R: IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WV, WY
Likely R: MT
Lean R: FL, OH, TX
Toss-up: MI, NV, WI
Lean D: AZ, PA
Likely D: ME, MN, NM
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 13 queries.