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October 21, 2020, 10:21:14 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions
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Author Topic: 2024 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions  (Read 3784 times)
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
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« on: June 06, 2020, 11:45:56 AM »

Hawaii
Senate:  Kai Kahele (D)
   
California
Senate:  Linda Sánchez (D)

Massachusettes
Senate:  Ayanna Pressley (D)

Maryland
Senate:  Anthony Brown (D)

Vermont
Governor:  David Zuckerman (D)
Senate:  Matt Dunne (D)

New York
Senate:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Washington
Governor:  Bob Ferguson (D)
Senate:  Maria Cantwell (D)

Rhode Island
Senate:  Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

New Jersey
Senate:  Bob Menendez (D)

Connecticut
Senate:  Chris Murphy (D)

Deleware
Governor:  Bethany Hall-Long (D)
Senate:  Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

New Mexico
Senate:  Martin Heinrich (D)

Virginia
Senate:  Tim Kaine (D)

Maine
Senate:  Jared Golden (D)

Nevada
Senate:  Jacky Rosen (D)

Minnesota
Senate:  Amy Klobuchar (D)

New Hampshire
Governor:  Dan Feltes (D)

Michigan
Senate:  Elissa Slotkin (D)

Pennsylvania
Senate:  Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

Arizona
Senate:  Kyrsten Sinema (D)

North Carolina
Governor:  Josh Stein (D)      

Wisconsin
Senate:  Tammy Baldwin (D)

Florida
Senate:  Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)

Texas
Senate:  Joaquin Castro (D)

Ohio
Senate:  Sherrod Brown (D)
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Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia
S019
Atlas Politician
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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2020, 05:47:13 PM »

2024 Senate



This map assumes King retires, I also expect several safe state retirements, but those won't change the map, King is the only swing state retirement that I expect.

The upper midwest seats all shift one rating to the right if the incumbent retires (MI/PA/WI), WV moves to Safe, if Manchin retires, MT moves to Lean R, if Tester retires. MI/PA may even move to tossup if Stabenow and/or Casey retire. If King stays, ME moves to Safe D


2024 Governor:



This map assumes that Scott, Sununu, Cooper, and Cooney win in 2020, and that Sununu retires to run for Senate in 2022. It is also assumed that Sununu was succeeded by a Democratic governor. If Scott loses in 2020/22 or retires, VT moves to Safe D, if Cooper loses in 2020, NC moves to Lean R, if Gianforte wins in 2020, MT moves to Lean R. If Sununu is still running for NH Governor in 2024, NH moves to Likely R, if a Republican succeeded Sununu, NH moves to Lean R
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FalterinArc
Atlas Politician
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2020, 01:06:47 PM »

West Virginia gubernatorial: Evan Jenkins (R) def. Natalie Tennant (D)
Missouri gubernatorial: Jason Kander (D) def.. Mike Kehoe (R)
Vermont gubernatorial: T.J Donavan (D) def. Scott Milne (R)
New Hampshire gubernatorial: Inc. Kelly Ayotte (R) defeats Chris Pappas (D)
Indiana gubernatorial: Jonathan Weinzapfel (D) def. Suzanne Crouch (R)
Washington gubernatorial: Bob Ferguson (D) def. Kim Wyman (R)
North Carolina gubernatorial: Mark Walker (R) def. Yvone Lewis Holey
Montana gubernatorial: inc. Mike Cooney (D) def. Matt Rosendale (R)
Utah gubernatorial: inc. Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) def. Paul Rolly (D)
North Dakota gubernatorial: Brent Sanford (R) def. Ben Vig (D)
D+2
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2020, 11:36:29 PM »

Senate:
-Arizona: Lean D
-California: Safe D
-Connecticut: Very Likely D
-Delaware: Safe D
-Florida: Toss-up
-Indiana: Very Likely R
-Maine: Lean D/I
-Maryland: Safe D
-Massachusetts: Safe D
-Michigan: Lean D
-Minnesota: Lean D
-Mississippi: Very Likely R
-Missouri: Very Likely R
-Montana: Toss-up
-Nebraska: Safe D
-Nevada: Lean D
-New Jersey: Very Likely D
-New Mexico: Likely D
-New York: Safe D
-North Dakota: Safe R
-Ohio: Toss-up
-Pennsylvania: Lean D
-Rhode Island: Safe D
-Tennessee: Safe R
-Texas: Toss-up
-Utah: Safe R
-Vermont: Safe D/I
-Virginia: Likely D
-Washington: Very Likely D
-West Virginia: Likely R
-Wisconsin: Lean D
-Wyoming: Safe R
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2020, 07:33:28 PM »



Retirements predictions:
1. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
2. Tom Carper (D-DE)
3. Rick Scott (R-FL) - to run for President
4. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
5. Angus King (I/D-ME)
6. Ben Cardin (D-MD)
7. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
8. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT)
9. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Primary defeat:
1. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)

Gun to my head:
OH and MT are D hold
TX is D gain
FL is R hold
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Laki
Lakigigar
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2020, 08:47:29 AM »

R gain: AZ, ME, MI, MN, MT, NJ, NV, NM, OH, PA, WI
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2020, 01:43:13 PM »

R gain: AZ, ME, MI, MN, MT, NJ, NV, NM, OH, PA, WI
Is this a joke?
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Laki
Lakigigar
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2020, 03:43:57 PM »

No but you're right i went too far. I just expect dems to lose a lot when they gain in power especially since the economy won't recover soon and i expect the covid crisis to lsst for years.
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Atlanta 1997 World Champs
bronz4141
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »

West Virginia is Safe R

Manchin is retiring and Alex Mooney will win that seat.

Manchin may retire for good, he may not run for Governor
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