2021 Gubernatorial Predictions
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Author Topic: 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 6325 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2021, 03:55:23 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2021, 07:51:30 PM by Mr.Phips »

NJ:  Murphy + 7
VA:  Youngkin + 3
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #26 on: October 25, 2021, 03:58:23 PM »

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.



EDIT: I accidentally edited this (clicked the modify button instead of the quote one). I am undoing the edit and replacing it with this message.

Updated Predictions (more will come in November):

VA: McAuliffe+7.2
NJ: Murphy+12.0
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2021, 10:54:43 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2021, 08:00:29 AM by DPKdebator »

My predictions:
Virginia: McAuliffe+3
New Jersey: Murphy+12
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2021, 03:10:09 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2021, 03:13:32 PM by Old School Democrat »

My final gubernatorial election (Made <1 week out):

Virginia: McAuliffe +7--likely D; Lynchburg (city) and Stafford County flip back; all other counties remain for the parties they voted for in 2020

New Jersey: Murphy +15--safe D; Gloucester county narrowly flips back to the GOP, all other counties remain for their respective parties.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2021, 01:34:34 PM »

FINAL 2021 GUBERNATORIAL PREDICTIONS FOR CENTRISTREPUBLICAN


My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so
My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.



EDIT: I accidentally edited this (clicked the modify button instead of the quote one). I am undoing the edit and replacing it with this message.

Updated Predictions (more will come in November):

VA: McAuliffe+7.2
NJ: Murphy+12.0

I know I said my final predictions would be in November, but it seemed weak to me to wait until right before the election when the outcome is more obvious. So on Friday, October 29, the better part of a week before the election, I am determining my final predictions. They are, to the nearest tenth of a point, as follows:

VA: McAuliffe+5.8 (I know this is more mild than my past 7.2 predictions, but having reviewed recent polling, I'm thinking the race is more competitive than that, though not nearly as competitive as most think)
NJ: Murphy+9.0 (Again, same logic as VA - I know this is a decline from my 12-point prediction, but I feel this is more likely)
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2021, 09:05:31 AM »

VA: Youngkin + 0.7
NJ: Murphy + 5.5
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2021, 02:56:30 PM »


Youngkin ain't winning. Polls have been wrong before; see MI, WI and PA in 2016 and 2020 for just six examples. VA is much too blue to elect a flip-flopping conservative as governor, even if by just 0.7%. My 5.8% McAuliffe win may be an exaggeration but it's much likelier to come true than a Youngkin win. You will see in a few days once the results are in (though they probably won't all come in on election night).
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2021, 05:12:13 PM »


Youngkin ain't winning. Polls have been wrong before; see MI, WI and PA in 2016 and 2020 for just six examples. VA is much too blue to elect a flip-flopping conservative as governor, even if by just 0.7%. My 5.8% McAuliffe win may be an exaggeration but it's much likelier to come true than a Youngkin win. You will see in a few days once the results are in (though they probably won't all come in on election night).
Polling in Virginia gubernatorial elections tends to favor the incumbent president's party, with an average over several statewide elections of polling being off by about 2 points to the left
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2021, 04:11:47 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2021, 03:08:16 AM by ElectionsGuy »

Final 2021 Prediction

NJ - Rating: Likely D

Murphy: 53.0%
Ciattarelli: 45.0%

This race has been mostly quiet but has tightened even more than I would've thought over the past 2 months. It does make sense though, that we're seeing McAuliffe slide at the same time as Murphy, suggesting this is environmental rather than candidate-based. Don't know how much third-party vote will impact this race, so I just guessed 2%. Could be wrong about that.

VA - Rating: Toss-Up/Tilt D

McAuliffe: 50.0%
Youngkin: 49.0%

This has been an interesting race, to be sure, with lots of national implications. I've said for months now that if Youngkin wins this race, there is no positive spin that can come out of that for Democrats. If it happens, Dems will likely get bogged down in a red wave environment similar to 2010 and 2014, unless they can really repair Biden's image and the overall national mood (large numbers of "wrong track" now vs beginning of 2021). The problem is that has shown no signs of repairing for Democrats over the past 3 months since the fall of Afghanistan. I'm guessing if or when it happens, we're going to hear a whole lot of spin saying it's just one election and McAuliffe ran a bad campaign and uniquely underperformed, whatever it is it's going to be another excusal/dismissal

What I'm predicting isn't much better though, a 9 point Republican swing from 2020's presidential results is still massive, and I'm predicting a similar swing in New Jersey (I do believe the two are somewhat linked by margin). What ultimately led me to air on the side of McAuliffe is the state's base partisanship + polls in Virginia with current party coalitions are probably some of the most "accurate" in the nation + some of the right-leaning pollsters still barely have Youngkin ahead, and it just wasn't enough for me to feel comfortable predicting him winning. However, I'm not confident in how accurate polls will be one way or another. I could be underestimating Youngkin because polls underestimate the "out" party in off-year/midterms, more or less. I could be underestimating McAuliffe because of that large college-educated block in Virginia being more reliable for Democrats than other state Dem coalitions. Although it does look like black voters do need to turn out on election day for Democrats as their early voting numbers aren't that high. But I do understand that I (and a few others) will be under much larger scorn if we underestimate Democrats rather than underestimating Republicans. A balanced prognosticator would do both, but overpredicting Democrats has been the accepted norm now for some time.

For months, political prognostication and hundreds of posts on this forum have assured us that Virginia is a safe blue state, anybody suggesting the race would be competitive is delusional and stupid, and the polls that these same people trusted so generously in 2018 and 2020 (because they showed Democrats winning) are now suspect because in 2017 there was a 6 point polling error in favor of Republicans, so the same polling error should occur here. Only in these last two weeks did a large chunk of people take the chance of Youngkin winning seriously, when now he's leading in the polling averages. There is ample reason you shouldn't expect (but shouldn't necessarily rule out) polls to have the same error: One is the enthusiasm gap, which is real and does affect elections, contrary to some posters who refuse to believe so. It often can explain some polling errors too. Dems had it in 2017, R's have it today. There is also an incumbent president underwater by 10 points in polling averages and a souring national mood that is starting to look pretty distressing. Another is that a 6 point error in favor of Republicans is just rare, it almost never happens and the Virginia 2017 race was one of the few you could point to over the last decade or so of it happening. The polls in the 2017 were also were more varied, with some tied and others being accurate at nearly Northam +10. These polls in this year are far more narrow in range and closer in margin, with the only outlier being Fox (which again, is a crappy pollster nobody should trust).

In a red wave environment that we saw back in 2010 and 2014, Virginia would be a toss-up state. It is a D+5-6 state now so with a R+5-6 margin, could be winnable for Republicans, if Republicans can get an elastic enough swing. Warner almost losing in 2014 actually was quite a Democratic overperformance considering that Virginia was still purple at that point. So if what we're seeing right now is a precipice of a red wave, it makes sense Virginia is a toss-up. And I've seen polling where the generic ballot in Virginia looks very similar to the Youngkin/McAuliffe numbers. If we're more likely to see a more mild R-leaning year, McAuliffe will probably win by 3-6 points. It also makes sense Virginia would be close because it has a tendency to go back and forth, with only McAuliffe's win over Cuccinelli (then cast as a very weak, extremist candidate) being the exception, and even then he underperformed polls that suggested he would win by at least 6 points. So while I'm not confident in terms of a winner of this race, the fundamentals suggest we're not going to be seeing Northam/Biden type margins in this race, but we can see McAuliffe win by 5 or so in a sigh of relief for Democrats, or say Youngkin winning by 4 in a huge blow to Democrats.

And even though I have the person on ignore, there is a passive-aggressive person sniping at me that I see randomly through quoted posts. If that person thinks I'm going to delete any posts, or be ashamed if I'm wrong, they clearly don't know me. If they think the California Recall prediction was embarrassing for me, they're wrong. Why would I still have it up? Why would I still have my 2020 prediction up? I don't delete any of my posts lol I pretty clearly said from the outset the race was not very competitive, and Democrats would ultimately close the race strong, which they did, and I pointed out the racial/class trends that ended up being accurate. I did get the margin 8 points off, with a weird election timing, varied polls that underestimated the No vote. I was not that shocked the recall failed by 24 points, I wasn't expecting some narrow range of results, and more importantly, I didn't berate people and call them insults because they didn't agree with my exact prediction. That's the toxic culture some on this forum continue to engage in and why I take long breaks from this place. I'm an elections nerd built for this type of forum but 20-30% of you guys make me never want to post here.

Also I plan to do an analysis of the California recall vote at some point, but overall it has very mixed implications and definitely does not weigh more on 2022 than these Governor races do.

edit: I read this over and realize I made a pretty large error and forgot the "not" in front of going. That's consistent with what I've been saying for weeks anyway.
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Xing
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2021, 05:11:05 PM »

Final predictions:

NJ-GOV:
Murphy 54%
Ciattarelli: 45%

Not much to see here, given how Democratic NJ is, but it'll be interesting to see how counties like Gloucester, Morris, and Somerset vote.

VA-GOV:
McAuliffe 50.5%
Youngkin 48%

This race is exhausting and tiresome for so many reasons, and while McAuliffe is a very slimy person, this race is potentially close and getting attention for all the wrong reasons which I'm not going to get into. Anyway, it'll probably be a humiliatingly close result for McAuliffe, and it's not impossible that he loses, but people are probably going to learn the wrong lessons, whatever the result is.
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S019
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2021, 05:13:04 PM »

Murphy+12, McAuliffe+3

#fundamentalsmatter
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2021, 07:52:52 PM »

Virginia - McAuliffe +3-5 points
New Jersey - Murphy +12-15 points
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2021, 11:46:25 AM »

FINAL 2021 GUBERNATORIAL PREDICTIONS FOR CENTRISTREPUBLICAN


My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so
My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.



EDIT: I accidentally edited this (clicked the modify button instead of the quote one). I am undoing the edit and replacing it with this message.

Updated Predictions (more will come in November):

VA: McAuliffe+7.2
NJ: Murphy+12.0

I know I said my final predictions would be in November, but it seemed weak to me to wait until right before the election when the outcome is more obvious. So on Friday, October 29, the better part of a week before the election, I am determining my final predictions. They are, to the nearest tenth of a point, as follows:

VA: McAuliffe+5.8 (I know this is more mild than my past 7.2 predictions, but having reviewed recent polling, I'm thinking the race is more competitive than that, though not nearly as competitive as most think)
NJ: Murphy+9.0 (Again, same logic as VA - I know this is a decline from my 12-point prediction, but I feel this is more likely)

Okay, I was way off. But as I explained to Matty:

Because VA was a Biden+10 state and I figured polarization was way too strong for a GOP win even if Biden was unpopular. I suppose I also underestimated Biden's unpopularity, but to be fair the only point of comparison we had was the recall in our common state, which we both know was great for Democrats (well, not considering the partisan lean of CA, but considering polling and predictions that it'd be competitive). I didn't think McAuliffe was that bad a candidate - he seemed to me experienced and uncontroversial, actually - and while I thought Youngkin had a good campaign, I figured polarization would win the day. And yes, more polarized states have opposite-party governors, but let's look at them one-by-one. Hogan, Baker and Scott are all anti-Trump and very moderate (I'd call Baker and Scott centrists). Sununu is more libertarian and a good fit for NH, which didn't support Biden by as much as VA did. In contrast to these people, Youngkin is a mainstream Republican except slightly quieter in his support for Trump (to win votes, though it was clear he was pro-Trump even if he didn't explicitly say it or invoke Trump's name). AL, KY, LA don't compare. In LA ancestral Democrats supported a popular and very moderate Democrat in his bid for reelection by enough for him to narrowly win...Youngkin had none of these advantages. In KY (which incidentally borders VA), it was because Bevin was exceedingly unpopular, and even then Beshear barely won, and did so with the support of ancestral registered Democrats in places like Elliott County who backed Trump the following year (basically, similar to LA). I'm shocked you're even bringing AL into this...it hardly compares. Moore would've won comfortably if not for the fact that he was totally scandal-tainted, and Jones was a good candidate (I imagine Moore might've still won if his opponent was a progressive or something). So, yes, while I was wrong, I still feel I was justified in making the predictions I made. I was right that the polls were underestimating a party: My only mistake was thinking polls were underestimating Democrats, when they largely underestimated Republicans.







Ironically, this turned out to be an underestimation of the GOP:


Youngkin ain't winning. Polls have been wrong before; see MI, WI and PA in 2016 and 2020 for just six examples. VA is much too blue to elect a flip-flopping conservative as governor, even if by just 0.7%. My 5.8% McAuliffe win may be an exaggeration but it's much likelier to come true than a Youngkin win. You will see in a few days once the results are in (though they probably won't all come in on election night).
Polling in Virginia gubernatorial elections tends to favor the incumbent president's party, with an average over several statewide elections of polling being off by about 2 points to the left

My only defense is that I was right in everything I said: the polls were wrong and largely underestimated a party. The only mistake I made was thinking the Democrats were being underestimated, not the GOP. Oh, well.
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S019
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« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2021, 11:06:17 PM »

Well I was clearly wrong, and underestimated the impact that Biden's unpopularity would have on these races. Anyways this is a clear warning sign for 2022, and the bloomers really need to come back to reality
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: November 04, 2021, 04:12:25 PM »

Murphy+12, McAuliffe+3

#fundamentalsmatter

This was funny
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S019
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« Reply #40 on: November 04, 2021, 09:15:51 PM »


It'll be even more funny, when I bump all of your Ohio takes after the 2022 Senate election.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #41 on: November 05, 2021, 12:13:45 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2021, 05:07:09 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

It's the 53rd seat not the 55 th seat and Demings and Crist are down by 12 and 19 pts


D's are in denial about FL we ran a Socialist inn2018 Gillium and he lost in 2018 and Crist is a Flip flopper, a retread like Terry
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