2022 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This all assumes a Biden Presidency.

Governor:

MA moves to Likely D if Baker doesn’t run for another term.
TX moves to Lean R if Abbott doesn’t run for another term.
NH moves to Likely R if Sununu doesn’t run for Senate.
VT to Safe D if Scott retires.

Anywhere from R+1 to D+4 would be my starting point guess.

Senate:

NH assumes Sununu runs. Otherwise Tossup.
MD assumes Hogan runs. Otherwise Safe D.
IA to Likely R if Grassley retires.
NC to Tossup depending on candidates.

Anywhere from R+3 to D+1

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Laura Kelly has a 64-29 approval in the SUSA Poll. I’m sticking with my prediction that she’s still a slight favorite in 2022 even if Biden wins, since governors are hard to dislodge.