2022 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions (user search)
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  2022 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2022 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions  (Read 4795 times)
S019
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Posts: 18,248
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

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« on: June 08, 2020, 09:59:54 PM »

It's early but whatever (adding 2021 as a bonus, also not rating special elections that result from Cabinet appointments, since I can't predict those, bump this on Inauguration Day 2021 and I will, also assuming Biden Presidency, since it's much likelier)


Governor:

2021

NJ: Lean D
VA: Safe D



assuming that Ducey runs for Senate, also TX GOV rating reflects uncertainty around Abbott running, if he does, it's Likely R, if he retires, it's a tossup, otherwise incumbents are assumed to run, if eligible

Senate:



Incumbents assumed to run unless they have already said they will retire.
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S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,248
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2020, 01:48:13 PM »

Rob Sand and Abby Finkenauer have about the same chance of winning a statewide/Senate race in IA in a Biden midterm as I do.


I kind of expect Reynolds to retire and run for Senate, which would open up a semi competitive Governor race, that R's would win by 5 or 6, Lean R is justified, but yeah with polarization, etc., the Senate seat would not be competitive. Also SC-GOV should be Safe R, should have checked that, and if Murkowksi loses her primary, AK moves to Lean R.
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