2022 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions

[President Biden Democrat]

This largely depends on who wins in 2020. If Trump wins, the 2022 midterm will be a disaster for Republicans and a historic Democratic wave. I covered this on my most recent TL, where Biden wins in 2020. Overall, my results were favorable to the Democrats given that Trump just lost and the majority of voters at the time were happy with Biden and the Democrats.

2022 Senate Predictions:

Biden wins 2020:
If Democrats are able to take back the senate in 2020, they will almost certainly keep it in 2022, no matter what. If they do not win it back but Biden does win, they could win it back in 2022, especially if the Democrats come in with 49 seats, they'd only need to pick up one seat (with Biden's VP breaking ties). So yes, Democrats definitely won't lose seats. The only vulnerable seats they will have up is maybe New Hampshire, which I'd classify as a lean Democratic state. Republicans will have a few states that could flip to the Democrats, these include both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I assume Arizona will go to the Democrats in 2020, but if it for some reason does not, then Arizona will also be very close in 2022. North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa would be competitive but at most would be either lean or likely Republican states. Also, Colorado would be likely not safe, my mistake.



Democrats: 49-50
Republicans: 47-48
Pure Tossups: 2 (PA&WI)

Trump wins 2020:
Democrats would gain seats and almost certainly regain the senate from the Republicans. By how much, depends on what happens in 2020 in the senate. My guess is that Democrats if Trump wins will still edge out in Arizona and maybe Maine. So they will be coming in with 48 or 49 seats, still in the minority after 2020. Democrats would win in the midwest (PA&WI). Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, and Georgia would be very vulnerable to flipping here. North Carolina is lean Democrat, while Florida, Georgia, and Ohio are tossups is because the incumbent Burr is retiring in 2022, he announced. Rubio is a very strong candidate and won by fairly large margins in 2010 and 2016 given the competitiveness of Florida. He could win but here it could go either way. In a Democratic wave year in 2018, Democrats lost the senate race in Florida to a candidate weaker than Rubio. Also, Georgia is likely Republican not safe, my mistake again.



Democrats: 51-52
Republicans: 47-48
Pure Tossups: 3 (FL&GA&OH)
2022 Gubernatorial Predictions:

Biden wins 2020:
Democrats definitely might lose seats here overall, as they gained seven seats in 2018. I'm not so sure exactly what would happen but I'd bet that Democrats would be able to hold onto their seats in the midwest in states that they gained in 2018 like Michigan and Wisconsin. Democrats would have opportunities for pick ups in many states, notably Georgia, Arizona, Texas, and maybe Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts depending on if their incumbents run or not for re-election. If incumbents in these three northeast states run, I think they'd win again especially in a Biden midterm. This also depends on the elections in both 2020 and 2021. In 2020, the Dems will either hold all of their seats or lose Montana. In 2021, Democrats will likely hold both Virginia and New Jersey.



Democrats: 21-22
Republicans: 25-26
Pure Tossups: 3 (AZ&FL&WI)

Trump wins 2020:
Democrats likely would gain governors mansions but who knows exactly what would happen. They'd likely hold all of their seats with the exception of maybe Kansas. They'd have opportunities to gain all across the country from the sunbelt to the midwest. Again, term limits would make certain states likely flip like Maryland with Hogan. NH, VT, and MA would all depend on if their governors run for re-election or not. If they decide not to, then all three would likely be favorable to the Democrats.



Democrats: 24-25
Republicans: 19-20
Pure Tossups: 6 (FL&GA&KS&MA&NH&VT)