Using Cook's categories:
Safe: These seats are not competitive.
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
Governor:
MA moves to Lean D if Baker doesn’t run for another term.
TX moves to Lean R if Abbott doesn’t run for another term.
NH moves to Likely R if Sununu doesn’t run for Senate and instead chooses to seek another term as governor (assuming he wins reelection this year).
Senate:
VT moves to Likely D if Leahy retires.
