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September 29, 2020, 09:49:02 am
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2022 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions
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Author Topic: 2022 Gubernatorial and Senate Predictions  (Read 1860 times)
Heebie Jeebie
jeb_arlo
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« on: June 06, 2020, 11:31:07 am »

Hawaii
Governor:  Clare E. Connors (D)
Senate:  Brian Schatz (D)
   
California
Governor:  Gavin Newsom (D)
Senate:  Kamala Harris (D)

Massachusetts
Governor:  Maura Healey (D)

Maryland
Governor:  Tom Perez (D)
Senate:  Chris Van Hollen (D)

Vermont
Governor:  David Zuckerman (D)
Senate:  T.J. Donovan (D)

New York
Governor:  Andrew Cuomo (D)
Senate:  Chuck Schumer (D)

Illinois
Governor:  J. B. Pritzker (D)
Senate:  Tammy Duckworth (D)

Washington
Senate:  Pramila Jayapal (D)

Rhode Island
Governor:  Peter Neronha (D)

Connecticut
Governor:  Ned Lamont (D)
Senate:  Jahana Hayes (D)

Oregon
Governor:  Tina Kotek (D)
Senate:  Kate Brown (D)

New Mexico
Governor:  M. Lujan Grisham (D)

Colorado
Governor:  Jared Polis (D)
Senate:  Michael Bennet (D)

Maine
Governor:  Aaron Frey (D)

Nevada
Governor:  Steve Sisolak (D)
Senate:  C. Cortez Masto (D)

Minnesota
Governor:  Tim Walz (D)

New Hampshire
Governor:  Dan Feltes (D)
Senate:  Maggie Hassan (D)

Michigan
Governor:  Gretchen Whitmer (D)

Pennsylvania
Governor:  Josh Shapiro (D)
Senate:  Chrissy Houlahan (D)

Arizona
Governor:  Katie Hobbs (D)
Senate:  Mark Kelly (D)

North Carolina
Senate:  Deborah Ross (D)

Georgia
Governor:  Stacey Abrams (D)
Senate:  Raphael Warnock (D)

Wisconsin
Governor:  Tony Evers (D)
Senate:  Mark Pocan (D)

Florida
Governor:  Nikki Fried (D)
Senate:  Darren Soto (D)

Ohio
Governor:  Andrew Ginther (D)
Senate:  Tim Ryan (D)

Texas
Governor:  Eric Johnson (D)

Iowa
Governor:  Rob Sand (D)
Senate:  Abby Finkenauer (D)
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Clinton/Newsom/Straight Ticket D 2018 voter for Mike Garcia
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2020, 09:59:54 pm »

It's early but whatever (adding 2021 as a bonus, also not rating special elections that result from Cabinet appointments, since I can't predict those, bump this on Inauguration Day 2021 and I will, also assuming Biden Presidency, since it's much likelier)


Governor:

2021

NJ: Lean D
VA: Safe D



assuming that Ducey runs for Senate, also TX GOV rating reflects uncertainty around Abbott running, if he does, it's Likely R, if he retires, it's a tossup, otherwise incumbents are assumed to run, if eligible

Senate:



Incumbents assumed to run unless they have already said they will retire.
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Bipartisan Bills or Bust
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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2020, 01:19:59 pm »

Rob Sand and Abby Finkenauer have about the same chance of winning a statewide/Senate race in IA in a Biden midterm as I do.
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2020, 01:48:13 pm »

Rob Sand and Abby Finkenauer have about the same chance of winning a statewide/Senate race in IA in a Biden midterm as I do.


I kind of expect Reynolds to retire and run for Senate, which would open up a semi competitive Governor race, that R's would win by 5 or 6, Lean R is justified, but yeah with polarization, etc., the Senate seat would not be competitive. Also SC-GOV should be Safe R, should have checked that, and if Murkowksi loses her primary, AK moves to Lean R.
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mrappaport1220
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« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2020, 11:27:12 pm »
« Edited: June 28, 2020, 09:57:06 am by mrappaport1220 »

This largely depends on who wins in 2020. If Trump wins, the 2022 midterm will be a disaster for Republicans and a historic Democratic wave. I covered this on my most recent TL, where Biden wins in 2020. Overall, my results were favorable to the Democrats given that Trump just lost and the majority of voters at the time were happy with Biden and the Democrats.

2022 Senate Predictions:

Biden wins 2020:
If Democrats are able to take back the senate in 2020, they will almost certainly keep it in 2022, no matter what. If they do not win it back but Biden does win, they could win it back in 2022, especially if the Democrats come in with 49 seats, they'd only need to pick up one seat (with Biden's VP breaking ties). So yes, Democrats definitely won't lose seats. The only vulnerable seats they will have up is maybe New Hampshire, which I'd classify as a lean Democratic state. Republicans will have a few states that could flip to the Democrats, these include both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I assume Arizona will go to the Democrats in 2020, but if it for some reason does not, then Arizona will also be very close in 2022. North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa would be competitive but at most would be either lean or likely Republican states. Also, Colorado would be likely not safe, my mistake.



Democrats: 49-50
Republicans: 47-48
Pure Tossups: 2 (PA&WI)

Trump wins 2020:
Democrats would gain seats and almost certainly regain the senate from the Republicans. By how much, depends on what happens in 2020 in the senate. My guess is that Democrats if Trump wins will still edge out in Arizona and maybe Maine. So they will be coming in with 48 or 49 seats, still in the minority after 2020. Democrats would win in the midwest (PA&WI). Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, and Georgia would be very vulnerable to flipping here. North Carolina is lean Democrat, while Florida, Georgia, and Ohio are tossups is because the incumbent Burr is retiring in 2022, he announced. Rubio is a very strong candidate and won by fairly large margins in 2010 and 2016 given the competitiveness of Florida. He could win but here it could go either way. In a Democratic wave year in 2018, Democrats lost the senate race in Florida to a candidate weaker than Rubio. Also, Georgia is likely Republican not safe, my mistake again.



Democrats: 51-52
Republicans: 47-48
Pure Tossups: 3 (FL&GA&OH)

2022 Gubernatorial Predictions:

Biden wins 2020:
Democrats definitely might lose seats here overall, as they gained seven seats in 2018. I'm not so sure exactly what would happen but I'd bet that Democrats would be able to hold onto their seats in the midwest in states that they gained in 2018 like Michigan and Wisconsin. Democrats would have opportunities for pick ups in many states, notably Georgia, Arizona, Texas, and maybe Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts depending on if their incumbents run or not for re-election. If incumbents in these three northeast states run, I think they'd win again especially in a Biden midterm. This also depends on the elections in both 2020 and 2021. In 2020, the Dems will either hold all of their seats or lose Montana. In 2021, Democrats will likely hold both Virginia and New Jersey.



Democrats: 21-22
Republicans: 25-26
Pure Tossups: 3 (AZ&FL&WI)

Trump wins 2020:
Democrats likely would gain governors mansions but who knows exactly what would happen. They'd likely hold all of their seats with the exception of maybe Kansas. They'd have opportunities to gain all across the country from the sunbelt to the midwest. Again, term limits would make certain states likely flip like Maryland with Hogan. NH, VT, and MA would all depend on if their governors run for re-election or not. If they decide not to, then all three would likely be favorable to the Democrats.



Democrats: 24-25
Republicans: 19-20
Pure Tossups: 6 (FL&GA&KS&MA&NH&VT)

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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2020, 11:36:05 am »
« Edited: June 28, 2020, 05:53:25 pm by JAMIE HARRISON »



Safe D CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, ME, MD, MI, MN, NV, NM, NY, OR, PA Shapiro will beat Toomey, RI
Tossup AZ,,FL, IA JD Scholten runs against Reynolds,  KS, Kelly is still popular, NH if Sununu runs for Senate, WI
Safe R AL, AK, AR, GA, ID, MA if Baker runs, NEB, NH if Sununu runs, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX if no Castro doesn't run, VT if Scott runs, WI

Gov races
Dependent on Scholten and which office he runs and Sununu, Baker and Scott running. Kemp is safe, GA reelected its R govs the last 2×s





Senate races dependent on Ryan, Scholten, Ducey, Lamb, Sununu, and Toomey

Safe D CO, CO, CT, HI, IL, MD, NV, NH depending on Sununu, NY,  OR, PA if Toomey retires and Lamb runs,,VT, WA, WI
Tossup AZ,if Ducey runs, IA dependent on Scholten,  NH If Sununu runs, OH if Ryan runs, PA if Toomey runs
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2020, 11:28:17 pm »


Senate:

-Alabama: Safe R
-Alaska: Likely R
-Arizona: Toss-up
-Arkansas: Safe R
-California: Safe D
-Colorado: Likely D
-Connecticut: Very Likely D
-Florida: Toss-up
-Georgia: Toss-up
-Hawaii: Safe D
-Idaho: Safe R
-Illinois: Very Likely D
-Indiana: Very Likely R
-Iowa: Lean R
-Kansas: Very Likely R
-Kentucky: Safe R
-Louisiana: Safe R
-Maryland: Safe D
-Missouri: Very Likely R
-Nevada: Lean D
-New Hampshire: Toss-up
-New York: Safe D
-North Carolina: Toss-up
-North Dakota: Safe R
-Ohio: Lean R
-Oklahoma: Safe R
-Oregon: Likely D
-Pennsylvania: Toss-up
-South Carolina: Likely R
-South Dakota: Safe R
-Utah: Safe R
-Vermont: Safe D
-Washington: Very Likely D
-Wisconsin: Toss-up
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Laki
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2020, 08:43:08 am »

R gain: AZ, NV, NH, OR
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2020, 01:00:03 pm »

Over the years I've learned to never count out Pat Toomey.  I can easily see him winning another term, especially if Biden wins the presidency.
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2020, 01:28:16 am »
« Edited: August 12, 2020, 02:28:26 am by MT Treasurer »

Using Cook's categories:

Safe: These seats are not competitive.

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.

Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.

Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

Governor:



MA moves to Lean D if Baker doesn’t run for another term.
TX moves to Lean R if Abbott doesn’t run for another term.
NH moves to Likely R if Sununu doesn’t run for Senate and instead chooses to seek another term as governor (assuming he wins reelection this year).

Senate:



VT moves to Likely D if Leahy retires.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2020, 04:00:54 am »
« Edited: August 12, 2020, 04:03:55 am by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

This all assumes a Biden Presidency.
Governor:



MA moves to Likely D if Baker doesn’t run for another term.
TX moves to Lean R if Abbott doesn’t run for another term.
NH moves to Likely R if Sununu doesn’t run for Senate.
VT to Safe D if Scott retires.

Anywhere from R+1 to D+4 would be my starting point guess.

Senate:



NH assumes Sununu runs. Otherwise Tossup.
MD assumes Hogan runs. Otherwise Safe D.
IA to Likely R if Grassley retires.
NC to Tossup depending on candidates.

Anywhere from R+3 to D+1
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2020, 01:05:00 am »

Laura Kelly has a 64-29 approval in the SUSA Poll. I’m sticking with my prediction that she’s still a slight favorite in 2022 even if Biden wins, since governors are hard to dislodge.
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MassTerp94
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2020, 06:34:48 pm »

In MA, Republican Governor Charlie Baker has the approval of 89% of Democrats. In fact, he is more popular among Dems than Republicans. He is probably going to run for a 3rd term and provided he survives an inevitable primary, he will get it.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2020, 09:47:02 am »

In MA, Republican Governor Charlie Baker has the approval of 89% of Democrats. In fact, he is more popular among Dems than Republicans. He is probably going to run for a 3rd term and provided he survives an inevitable primary, he will get it.

Why isn't the dude just switching parties?
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2020, 05:29:39 pm »

JD Scholten probably runs against Gov Reynolds in IA, since he will lose IA 4 District race, this yr. I can see AZ and IA flipping D
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2020, 11:53:31 am »

JD Scholten probably runs against Gov Reynolds in IA, since he will lose IA 4 District race, this yr. I can see AZ and IA flipping D

Why should IA Dems nominate a 2 times failed House candidate? In a Biden midterm, IA-Gov is lean/likely R anyway.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2020, 06:57:08 pm »

JD Scholten probably runs against Gov Reynolds in IA, since he will lose IA 4 District race, this yr. I can see AZ and IA flipping D

Why should IA Dems nominate a 2 times failed House candidate? In a Biden midterm, IA-Gov is lean/likely R anyway.

No its not, Ernst and Reynolds approvals aren't at 50 percent before like they were before Covid they are below 50 percent
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2020, 01:59:24 pm »

JD Scholten probably runs against Gov Reynolds in IA, since he will lose IA 4 District race, this yr. I can see AZ and IA flipping D

Why should IA Dems nominate a 2 times failed House candidate? In a Biden midterm, IA-Gov is lean/likely R anyway.

I mean, he came pretty close to winning a very R district in 2018. Iowa was 3 points away from having a 4D-0R House delegation.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2020, 04:30:15 am »

We never know how IA and KS will vote, they are tossups each election cycle, but Dems have better succcess, now in KS and KS is an open Senate seat in 2020 and KS Gov is an incumbant reelect and Kelly is an inoffensive Dem like Mark Kelly is
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The Notorious ACB
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2020, 11:20:46 pm »

Alabama Governor - Kay Ivey
Alaska Governor - Mike Dunleavy
Arizona Governor - Katie Hobbs
Arkansas Governor - Sarah Huckabee-Sanders
California Governor - Gavin Newsom
Colorado Governor - Jared Polis
Connecticut Governor - Ned Lamont
Florida Governor - Stephanie Murphy
Georgia Governor - Brian Kemp
Hawaii Governor - Tulsi Gabbard
Idaho Governor - Brad Little
Illinois Governor - JB Pritzker
Iowa Governor - Kim Reynolds
Kansas Governor - Molly Baumgardner
Maine Governor - Paul LePage
Maryland Governor - Mary Washington
Massachusetts Governor - Charlie Baker
Michigan Governor - Gretchen Whitmer
Minnesota Governor - Tim Walz
Nebraska Governor - Lou Ann Linehan
Nevada Governor - Steve Sisolak
New Hampshire Governor - Chris Sununu
New Mexico Governor - Michelle Lujan Grisham
New York Governor - Andrew Cuomo
Ohio Governor - Emilia Sykes
Oklahoma Governor - Kevin Stitt
Oregon Governor - Tina Kotek
Pennsylvania Governor - Josh Shapiro
Rhode Island Governor - Seth Magaziner
South Carolina Governor - Henry McMaster
South Dakota Governor - Kristi Noem
Tennessee Governor - Bill Lee
Texas Governor - Greg Abbott
Vermont Governor - Rebecca Holcombe
Wisconsin Governor - Sean Duffy
Wyoming Governor - Mark Gordon

Senate results depend on unknown 2020 results too much, at the moment.
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Samof94
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2020, 05:12:11 am »

What is Kansas like for the GOP given the lean of the state?
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