TX-PPP: Tie at 48

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.texasdemocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TexasResults.pdf

Trump's approval at 46/50.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden needs to seriously contest Texas.

Still focus more energy on AZ, PA, FL, and MI, but Texas could be a sleeper. Plus, it’ll force the Republicans to take the defense in the state.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Trump +9 sample too.

[MidwestPollster]

On election night, if Texas results appear to be this competitive (which I still doubt) the dam will have already broken. There will be trends in other states, such as Georgia, that I believe will also be noticeable.

[DaWN]

Even if this does happen, the usual suspects will claim its a two-off anyway.

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden is winning men and losing women lol. Additionally, his black and hispanic numbers seem astronomically high at 97-1 and 66-23. I think Texas is close, but this poll is trash.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If it's this close in TX, Biden is winning GA by 3-4.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden is winning men and losing women lol. Additionally, his black and hispanic numbers seem astronomically high at 97-1 and 66-23. I think Texas is close, but this poll is trash.

How many times does it have to be said to not nitpick the crosstabs due to their higher margin of error?

Also those black and hispanic numbers really don't sound that off to me at all.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Good for Trump

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden is winning men and losing women lol. Additionally, his black and hispanic numbers seem astronomically high at 97-1 and 66-23. I think Texas is close, but this poll is trash.

How many times does it have to be said to not nitpick the crosstabs due to their higher margin of error?

Also those black and hispanic numbers really don't sound that off to me at all.

I am not usually a crosstabs troll, but from my experience complete impossibilities such as the gender gap flipping usually mean a poll is bad. As for black/Hispanic numbers, they would constitute a 20 point swing 2016->2020 among each group. The higher quality QPac had these numbers more realistic with blacks and Hispanics at 76-11 and 53-32 Biden respectively, and they still had Biden within the MoE. Texas will be close, and this result jives with some recent national polling, but all I am saying is that this particular poll appears to be trash.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Moving NM to safe D.

[lfromnj]

I think a gendered crosstab is fine to look at due to its 50/50 split but I dont like looking into minority crosstabs too much.

[MillennialModerate]

If it's this close in TX, Biden is winning GA by 3-4.

Christ with the Georgia BS.

The 3 races in Georgia are NOT turning Dem.

Texas... I could see it in a real landslide but that’s not happening because of the pathetic rigidity of the Trump electorate. After everything that’s happened he’s down by a lot but nowhere near “impossible”.

[MillennialModerate]

Moving NM to safe D.

I already had NM as Safe Dem

[ON Progressive]

If it's this close in TX, Biden is winning GA by 3-4.

Christ with the Georgia BS.

The 3 races in Georgia are NOT turning Dem.

Texas... I could see it in a real landslide but that’s not happening because of the pathetic rigidity of the Trump electorate. After everything that’s happened he’s down by a lot but nowhere near “impossible”.

Senator Dean Heller agrees.

[DrScholl]

Texas would decide the presidency by itself if it flipped, so this is really significant. But of course Republicans will explain that away by saying that Trump could just win Minnesota or Maine or Nevada or New Mexico or New Hampshire and be just fine with losing Texas.

[Pollster]

By media market:

Austin: Biden 59/41 (was Clinton 53/40)
Dallas: Trump 50/49 (was Trump 54/42)
Houston: Biden 62/34 (was Trump 50/46)
San Antonio: Trump 59/33 (was Trump 49/46)
Other: Trump 57/35 (was Trump 59/37)

[Ferguson97]

The small sample size upsets me more than the crosstabs. 682 doesn't seem like a very good sample size.

[Hammy]

If it's this close in TX, Biden is winning GA by 3-4.

I'm too pessimistic about voting access to see Dems winning Georgia anytime soon after the stunt Kemp pulled in 2018.

[ShamDam]

There has only been one poll this year showing Trump up by more than 5 in Texas. Doesn't mean Biden will win but it is wild that all signs are pointing to a low single digit race.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

[President Johnson]

More and more this is becoming a real pure tossup instead of Tilt Republican. If these numbers hold, Uncle Joe will smoke Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

I absolutely buy this, and we’ve literally had dozens of TX polls showing a Tossup already. It’s also in line with national polls showing a Biden blowout, the insane swings/trends we saw in 2016 and 2018, other swing state polls (especially OH/IA/GA/NC), and the relative accuracy of TX polls, which—unlike, say, IA polls—certainly have not underestimated Republican support in recent elections.

I guess I might also add that it was not that long ago that I was mocked for predicting that TX was more likely to flip than IA (especially by a certain R-OR avatar).

[Orwell]

Sad to see 48% of Texans supporting a racist

[S019]

TX is a pure tossup in this election, I'd say Trump+2, if the election was held tomorrow. These TX polls have to send alarms through Trump's campaign, if TX flips, he's genuinely being landslide by Biden.

[Blair]

why do people get so angry over what way other people think a state is going to vote.