Still likely R given what all non-PPP public polls have been saying about Iowa, but closer to lean than safe at this point.
We haven't had any non-PPP polls of Iowa in months.
Yeah, that is what is tempting me to shift it outright to lean D, but there's just too little information and the priors are terrible for Democrats (including a Trump+10 Selzer poll from March). It's worth noting this was a privately commissioned poll for EMILY's list, and they may only have chosen to release it because the numbers looked good (as with lots of other internals).
