IA-PPP: Greenfield +2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another female bites the dust, Ernst votes to acquit Trump, Collims and Ernst are gone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Time for Cook and Sabato to update their ratings on KS, MT and IA. Cook moved IA 4 to safe R, was a mistake

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst and Collins political careers are tied together, they both are viewed as moderates and both won in 2014 wave yrs, and both voted for Kavanaugh and Acquitted Trump; consequently,  both seem likely to lose and defeated by Betsy Sweet and Teresa Greenfield.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isn’t really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernst’s numbers have been dropping in these polls, and she’s gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.

Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating

You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isn’t really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernst’s numbers have been dropping in these polls, and she’s gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.

Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating

You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll

PPP is a pro-Democratic pollster so in real life Ernst's JA is likely higher. I say that if Trump wins Iowa in November, Ernst wins.

Ernst at 43% is in line with her current approvals at 37 positive/43% negative . Both Collins and Ernst are both at 45% which is a danger zone for an incumbent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All these polls coming out are bad news, for the Rs. This is the same Senate map that got Ds the majority in 2008.