Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isn’t really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernst’s numbers have been dropping in these polls, and she’s gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.
Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating
You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll
PPP is a pro-Democratic pollster so in real life Ernst's JA is likely higher. I say that if Trump wins Iowa in November, Ernst wins.
