GA - Progress Campaign (D) - head-to-head matchup for both elections

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A reminder that this group is still being vetted by 538, but they seem genuine. Poll previously embargoed during vetting, but released as the primary is tomorrow.

https://becd085d-5f24-4974-b9b5-73518197155a.filesusr.com/ugd/83fab9_3f5865357dc84aae989fc77021a6e4ce.pdf

May 4-15, 2020
2893 likely voters
MoE: 2%

Perdue 42%
Ossoff 42%
Other/undecided 16%

Perdue 42%
Tomlinson 41%
Other/undecided 19%

Collins 43%
Warnock 41%
Other/undecided 16%

1162 likely Democratic primary voters:

Ossoff 46%
Tomlinson 29%
Amico 9%
Other/undecided 16%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not good for Rs to be tied in GA and a runoff is expected. GA is finally becoming the new LA, where Dems won statewide elections.  It was trending that way in 2014 when Nunn and Carter almost won

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought the group vetted by 538 was Our Progress.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I thought the group vetted by 538 was Our Progress.

Same outfit; the name you've mentioned is their twitter handle.

[S019]

This aligns with we've seen in the past several Georgia Senate polls, both of these seats are pure tossups, and that odds that Democrats win at least one is probably above 50%, at this point.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This aligns with we've seen in the past several Georgia Senate polls, both of these seats are pure tossups, and that odds that Democrats win at least one is probably above 50%, at this point.

I do recall reading a 538 article from around 2018-midterms time that states with two simultaneous elections rarely split, though.  (I believe the article's focus was Minnesota).

[Landslide Lyndon]

This aligns with we've seen in the past several Georgia Senate polls, both of these seats are pure tossups, and that odds that Democrats win at least one is probably above 50%, at this point.

I do recall reading a 538 article from around 2018-midterms time that states with two simultaneous elections rarely split, though. 

Yeah, but there is the run-off wrinkle here.

[MT Treasurer]

Predicting that both seats go to a runoff, which should be... fun. Both seats start out as Pure Tossup in a runoff election if Biden wins in November (likely).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Predicting that both seats go to a runoff, which should be... fun. Both seats start out as Pure Tossup in a runoff election if Biden wins in November (likely).

Before people run in here talking about 2008. Lindy Miller and John Barrow got 48 percent in a low turnout run off for some random down ballot seats. One or TWO (!!) U.S. Senate races with one being a Black candidate endorsed by the Stacey Abrams machine will have high turnout on both sides.

[Roll Roons]

Predicting that both seats go to a runoff, which should be... fun. Both seats start out as Pure Tossup in a runoff election if Biden wins in November (likely).

It also depends on how every other Senate race goes. If Biden wins and Democrats get 50 seats or more, I think Perdue and Collins both win, though by <5. But if they have 48 or 49, all bets are off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter would have had a runoff, but the R wave swept the country. If they could make GA competetive in 2014, in a Lean R year, GA can go D in a D year in 2020

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ossoff must be resurrecting those Earley County Democrats to be able to counteract the massive Gwinnett County and Cobb County margins that David King of the Suburbs Perdue is racking up

[WD]

Ossoff must be resurrecting those Earley County Democrats to be able to counteract the massive Gwinnett County and Cobb County margins that David King of the Suburbs Perdue is racking up

This. Ossof will win with this map

[ajc0918]

If Dems get to 48/49 seats and both of these go to a run off I''ll literally quit my job to campaign in Georgia for a month.

[MT Treasurer]

Ossoff must be resurrecting those Earley County Democrats to be able to counteract the massive Gwinnett County and Cobb County margins that David King of the Suburbs Perdue is racking up

Yeah I expect Perdue and Collins to win by the same margin (R+1.39%, obviously) but Perdue to replicate Matt Mattingly's 1980 map while Collins wins with Kemp's map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems get to 48/49 seats and both of these go to a run off I''ll literally quit my job to campaign in Georgia for a month.

Dems are gonna win AZ, CO, ME and NC, while GA, IA, MT, KS, SC and AK get Ds to 51 seats

[WD]

Ossoff must be resurrecting those Earley County Democrats to be able to counteract the massive Gwinnett County and Cobb County margins that David King of the Suburbs Perdue is racking up

Yeah I expect Perdue and Collins to win by the same margin (R+1.39%, obviously) but Perdue to replicate Matt Mattingly's 1980 map while Collins wins with Kemp's map.

I know this is a joke, but would that even be possible IRL lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Really bad poll for the Democrats all-around tbh, although the Warnock numbers are about what I'd expect.