IA-PPP: Greenfield +2
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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Greenfield +2  (Read 1396 times)
gracile
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« on: June 05, 2020, 08:29:52 AM »

https://secure.emilyslist.org/page/-/IowaResults.pdf

Theresa Greenfield (D) 45%
Joni Ernst (R-inc) 43%
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2020, 08:33:01 AM »

Yet another state the NRSC will have to spend money on...
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2020, 08:38:04 AM »

I also remember Abby Finkenauer was supposed to beat Blum by 15 points
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indietraveler
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2020, 08:54:16 AM »

Looks like I was wrong about Ernst outperforming Trump as things stand today, however Greenfield is still relatively unknown. If these results hold relatively steady over the next few months this race shouldn't be ignored.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2020, 09:02:09 AM »

Hot take: Ernst will run behind Trump.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2020, 09:04:01 AM »

Still likely R given what all non-PPP public polls have been saying about Iowa, but closer to lean than safe at this point.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2020, 09:08:38 AM »

Still likely R given what all non-PPP public polls have been saying about Iowa, but closer to lean than safe at this point.

We haven't had any non-PPP polls of Iowa in months.
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Pollster
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2020, 09:20:41 AM »

Crossposting from the Presidential thread:

By Congressional district:

IA-01: Biden 53/42
IA-02: Biden 53/41
IA-03: Trump 53/42
IA-04: Trump 53/42

IA-01: Greenfield 54/37
IA-02: Greenfield 56/36
IA-03: Ernst 50/41
IA-04: Ernst 48/34

These subsamples are smaller and have higher margins of error. If anything, we're probably seeing a perfect demonstration of the central limit theorem here.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2020, 09:27:15 AM »

Another poll with poor approvals for Joni Ernst. Just two years ago, she had a 51-33 rating.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2020, 09:30:07 AM »

Still likely R given what all non-PPP public polls have been saying about Iowa, but closer to lean than safe at this point.

We haven't had any non-PPP polls of Iowa in months.

Yeah, that is what is tempting me to shift it outright to lean D, but there's just too little information and the priors are terrible for Democrats (including a Trump+10 Selzer poll from March). It's worth noting this was a privately commissioned poll for EMILY's list, and they may only have chosen to release it because the numbers looked good (as with lots of other internals).
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2020, 09:33:57 AM »

Another female bites the dust, Ernst votes to acquit Trump, Collims and Ernst are gone
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2020, 09:53:39 AM »

Iím going to hold off on believing this poll until SN24601 has had a chance to weigh in on its quality.
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Orser67
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2020, 11:50:54 AM »

This has potentially huge implications for the Senate, and I'll be looking forward to more polling here. Maybe the DSCC was right to get behind Greenfield (or maybe not, we'll see).
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2020, 12:05:02 PM »

Time for Cook and Sabato to update their ratings on KS, MT and IA. Cook moved IA 4 to safe R, was a mistake
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2020, 01:08:46 PM »

Itís funny how this is the only race/state where SnowLabrador isnít predicting doom and gloom for Democrats and whereís he more confident about Democratic prospects than many other posters. I wonder what prompted the sudden change of heart?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2020, 01:27:43 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2020, 01:40:45 PM by President Johnson »

This is great news for Abby Finkenauer. Not convinced the senate seat will flip, but no more than Lean Republican.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2020, 03:50:44 PM »

Ernst and Collins political careers are tied together, they both are viewed as moderates and both won in 2014 wave yrs, and both voted for Kavanaugh and Acquitted Trump; consequently,  both seem likely to lose and defeated by Betsy Sweet and Teresa Greenfield.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2020, 04:33:08 PM »

Ernst and Collins political careers are tied together, they both are viewed as moderates and both won in 2014 wave yrs, and both voted for Kavanaugh and Acquitted Trump; consequently,  both seem likely to lose and defeated by Betsy Sweet and Teresa Greenfield.

Ernst is in no way moderate.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2020, 06:25:39 PM »

Probably a bit too optimistic for Greenfield, but this seat shouldn't even be close to competitive!
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2020, 07:41:53 PM »

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isnít really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernstís numbers have been dropping in these polls, and sheís gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2020, 09:42:51 AM »

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isnít really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernstís numbers have been dropping in these polls, and sheís gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.


Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating

You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll
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UWS
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2020, 11:50:31 AM »

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isnít really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernstís numbers have been dropping in these polls, and sheís gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.


Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating

You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll

PPP is a pro-Democratic pollster so in real life Ernst's JA is likely higher. I say that if Trump wins Iowa in November, Ernst wins.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2020, 12:01:53 PM »

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isnít really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernstís numbers have been dropping in these polls, and sheís gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.


Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating

You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll

PPP is a pro-Democratic pollster so in real life Ernst's JA is likely higher. I say that if Trump wins Iowa in November, Ernst wins.

Ernst at 43% is in line with her current approvals at 37 positive/43% negative . Both Collins and Ernst are both at 45% which is a danger zone for an incumbent
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2020, 12:43:29 PM »

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isnít really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernstís numbers have been dropping in these polls, and sheís gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.


Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating

You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll

PPP is a pro-Democratic pollster so in real life Ernst's JA is likely higher. I say that if Trump wins Iowa in November, Ernst wins.

Most recent Iowa polls have found pretty substantial slippage in Ernst's approval, IIRC
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2020, 12:47:08 PM »

Given recent election cycles, a two-point lead for a Democrat in IA isnít really something to be confident about, but it does merit mention that Ernstís numbers have been dropping in these polls, and sheís gone from overperforming Trump by a few points to underperforming him by a few. If the national race is close, obviously Ernst wins, but in a Bidenslide, this race could end up being a close call. Still Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe, at this point.


Dont you realize that Ernst have a 37 percent approval rating

You know this is Tom Harkins seat before 2014 and Vilsack and Chet Culver were Govs and IA was a D state before 2014. Both Ernst and Collins are toast and Collins is down by 9 pts in a D internal. Yet Collins doesnt have a poll to combat the D internal poll

PPP is a pro-Democratic pollster so in real life Ernst's JA is likely higher. I say that if Trump wins Iowa in November, Ernst wins.

Most recent Iowa polls have found pretty substantial slippage in Ernst's approval, IIRC
This could end unideally for Joni Ernst. Heitkamp called.
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