What's the state of your local House race?

[UncleSam]

Safe D, WA 7 is the most democratic majority white district in the country. Jayapal isn’t going anywhere.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Safe R

[anthonyjg]

IL-06. Borderline safe D at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R, Williams loses by 3-4 points and underperforms Bullock and Cooney because of #populism . I do think Rosendale is an easier opponent for her than Gianforte, though.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Likely D. Republicans seem to be uniting around former NHGOP Executive Director Matt Mowers. Before that, he was a Christie staffer, and he's coming off of a stint in the State Department as one of Trump's top men.

He's running as a Trumpist, so between that and Pappas's popularity in the Manchester area, I'd expect him to lose handily.

[Lourdes]

NJ-01 is safe D. Nobody is unseating Norcross anytime soon in a primary or a general election.

[MarkD]

IL-12 is rated Safe R by most pundits. Seems like a good bet to me. Mike Bost has not won his three elections so far by great margins, because the Republican rural vote is only slightly greater than the Democratic suburban vote in St. Clair and Madison Counties. But his Democratic opponent this year, Ray Lenzi, is not going to do any better than the past three Democratic nominees, and will likely do even worse than them.

[Arson Plus]

PA-17: Conor Lamb will win easily, a liberal democrat would win

PA 18: Safe Dem, the Pittsburgh district

[The Mamdani Virus]

NJ-11 is a Likely/Safe D seat mostly due to the incumbent, Sherrill. In a more competitive year, this could be a possible flip, however it just won't happen this year. Sherrill defeated highly touted challenger Jay Webber by a margin of around 15 pts, the margin of victory was shocking given that she was expected to only win by 7 to 8 pts. Her challenger this year, Rosemary Becchi is definitely a better ideological fit for the seat than Webber, however the race has drawn far less attention than in 2018. I'd expect Sherrill to outrun Biden by a decent amount, and Biden wins this seat by 2 or 3 pts, it's very hard for me not to see Sherrill winning by double digits, especially with Trump as toxic as he is in the New Jersey suburbs.

[Cowboys for Christ]

NE-02: Don Bacon is currently concern trolling Kara Eastman's campaign with endorsements from random irrelevant Democrats to create an image that KOMRAKE KARA is too FAR LEFT FOR NEBRASKA VALUES. Such Democrats endorsing Bacon include beloved institutions Jim Moran and Joe Lieberman, as well as Republican-turned Independent-turned Democrat Bob "I had no backing as an independent so my only choice to have an ego trip for Governor in 2018 was to become a Democrat" Krist, and the some dude Mayor of Valley, NE, all voices that people know and care about.

I, too, value the endorsement of random congresscritters from yesteryear from another part of the country. Thank you, Don Bacon.

Also, Ann Ashford still hasn't endorsed Kara Eastman because Ashford thinks Eastman is sexist for thinking Ann Ashford was only running to "avenge" her husband's 2018 primary loss, which is something precisely everybody thinks anyway.

[Roll Roons]

Home (NJ-07): Highly competitive. Trump is very unpopular in most of the district, but Kean is a strong candidate who can distinguish himself from him, and Republicans, including him, have still managed to hold most of the legislative seats that cover the district. And Kean's Senate district, which includes a significant portion of the district's population, is actually more Democratic than NJ-07 as a whole!

College (IL-01): Black-majority district based on Chicago's South Side. Bobby Rush has his problems, but will get around 75%.

Current (DC): LOL. Absolutely nothing to say about this one.

[OBD]

Safe D, Bonamici ain't going nowhere.

[Ye We Can]

Safe R, Jan Schakowsky is obviously already dead w
In a presidential year

[Smash255]

NY-02, lean Republican, but one that can be flipped with King retiring.

Primary is on June 23rd, will likely rind up being Jackie Gordon who is a Babylon Town Board member for the Democrats and Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino for the Republicans.   Trump won the district by 9 in 2016, but should tighten up  a bit.  King faced his closest race in years in 2018 winning by 6.

[Illiniwek]

IL: Freshman Congresswoman Lauren Underwood is defending her seat against perennial loser and milk magnet Jim Oberweis (who I have previously supported and voted for as a state senator, but hate as a national office candidate). The race is Lean D; the seat could eventually go back to the GOP, but not in this political climate with this Republican candidate.

MI (where I will be voting): Congressman Bill Huizenga is defending his seat against UCC pastor Bryan Berghof. Berghof is really playing up the Christian-integrity angle in his campaign, and is depicting Huizenga as a rubber-stamp for trump-style politics. The race is Likely-to-Safe R, but could theoretically swing if trump has an epic collapse and the Dutch conservative evangelicals don't show up to support trump. I think Berghof is possibly the best challenger Huizenga has faced, and could beat the Democratic record in the district in recent history (2018 43%). But Huizenga should be back in Congress next year.

[WD]

Likely D,OR-4. Defazio will outrun Biden by a few points

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Likely D,OR-4. Defazio will outrun Biden by a few points

Cliff Bentz is going to steamroll in my district.

[cg41386]

NJ-1, Safe D.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

SC-03, Titanium R. Only way this would ever flip is with a great D, Duncan having a scandal, and a conservative third party challenger. Even then flip chances are under 10%


Current candidates:

Jeff Duncan(R): incumbent rep. from Laurens
Mark Welch(D): former educator from Oconee County
Hosea Cleveland(D): perennial candidate from Anderson(?)
Myself(write-in): student from Anderson county  (ineligible)

[Drew]

WI-2:  Mark Pocan (D) is expected to win re-election as he faces math professor and frequent candidate Peter Theron (R).  Both are uncontested in their respective primaries.

[Raccoon]

VA-11  and Gerry Connolly is 100% safe.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here in NJ-5, Gottheimer will probably win re-election by as much as last time, maybe even more. I would consider it likely D. I've gotten mailers from his potential opponent (I forgot his name, and who really even cares?) and the guy is running in the GOP primary as a hardcore Trumpist talking about ending sanctuary cities, blaming Democrats for the GOP tax bill and its affect on SALT deductions (the gall!), and other stupid s***. He makes John McCann, his opponent from last time, look like Tom Kean Jr. Not only that but Trump will be on the ballot this year, and even though Trump narrowly carried my district in 2016, I don't expect that to happen this year. Trump is not popular here! Maybe in Sussex and Warren counties, but they are are a significant minority of the district which is Bergen centered and consist of some pretty anathema demographics for Trump, specifically the well-educated northern and central suburbs as well as some more diverse suburbs like Hackensack and Teaneck.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My Clinton+73 district?

Yeah, Jimmy Gomez is going to be fine.

[Roll Roons]

Here in NJ-5, Gottheimer will probably win re-election by as much as last time, maybe even more. I would consider it likely D. I've gotten mailers from his potential opponent (I forgot his name, and who really even cares?) and the guy is running in the GOP primary as a hardcore Trumpist talking about ending sanctuary cities, blaming Democrats for the GOP tax bill and its affect on SALT deductions (the gall!), and other stupid s***. He makes John McCann, his opponent from last time, look like Tom Kean Jr. Not only that but Trump will be on the ballot this year, and even though Trump narrowly carried my district in 2016, I don't expect that to happen this year. Trump is not popular here! Maybe in Sussex and Warren counties, but they are are a significant minority of the district which is Bergen centered and consist of some pretty anathema demographics for Trump, specifically the well-educated northern and central suburbs as well as some more diverse suburbs like Hackensack and Teaneck.

I really can't believe this district continued to elect a Freedom Caucus guy for over a decade. A Roukema, Kean or Lance type could have still held it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here in NJ-5, Gottheimer will probably win re-election by as much as last time, maybe even more. I would consider it likely D. I've gotten mailers from his potential opponent (I forgot his name, and who really even cares?) and the guy is running in the GOP primary as a hardcore Trumpist talking about ending sanctuary cities, blaming Democrats for the GOP tax bill and its affect on SALT deductions (the gall!), and other stupid s***. He makes John McCann, his opponent from last time, look like Tom Kean Jr. Not only that but Trump will be on the ballot this year, and even though Trump narrowly carried my district in 2016, I don't expect that to happen this year. Trump is not popular here! Maybe in Sussex and Warren counties, but they are are a significant minority of the district which is Bergen centered and consist of some pretty anathema demographics for Trump, specifically the well-educated northern and central suburbs as well as some more diverse suburbs like Hackensack and Teaneck.

I really can't believe this district continued to elect a Freedom Caucus guy for over a decade. A Roukema, Kean or Lance type could have still held it.

Well, Garrett successfully primaried Roukema and then the district was made more Republican by stretching further into Sussex and Warren counties. Since redistricting, last decade, the district stretched more into Bergen and became less exurban and rural. So then when Garrett finally got a capable opponent in Gottheimer, he finally lost. It was bound to happen eventually, especially given demographic shifts and the Republican Party's turn to Trumpism.