What's the state of your local House race?

[W]

Not sure if this'd be better suited for Forum Community so if a mod wants to move it go for it. Just wanted a place for us to ramble about our house races that don't get discussed much.

I currently live in NY-19. Swing district at least in the past few years. The current incumbent is Antonio Delgado (D), one-termer who beat another one-termer in John Faso (R). Wholely convinced in my heart Zephyr Teachout only lost in 2016 due to down-ballot, but a moderate Dem is better than Faso.

New York has some ballot fusion fiascos so Delgado is also the nominee of the Working Families Party (WOOT!) and the Serve America Movement (ew).

Two Republicans now.

Ola Hawatmeh is a fashion designer. Very pro-Trump on Twitter. Making a big pitch on her background as not a lawyer (both Delgado and the other GOP candidate are), child of Jordanian immigrants, and otherwise an outsider.

Kyle Van De Water is an attorney and army vet. He only entered in February so I am not as familiar with him.

I think Van De Water is favoured in the primary but quite frankly with no real polling out there who knows. I wouldn't be surprised if Hawatmeh pulls it thru. I'd rank lean D in the general, however.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

In WA-07, Jayapal is very safe regardless of her opponent.

[We Live in Black and White]

Liz F**king Cheney.

[Non Swing Voter]

well let's just say Barbara Comstock isn't making a comeback.

[PAK Man]

I live in IL-09. Jan Schakowsky will sleepwalk to yet another term.

[Lognog]

The challenger in PA 05 literally has "make delaware county great again" lawn signs so she's DOA

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

TX 32nd, Likely D, total snoozefest.

[Interlocutor]

CA-41: Takano won with 65% last time & in 2016. He's facing the same opponent as 2 years ago. Pretty comfortable in saying he'll be at or above 65%

[The Night Owlditor]

Waste of space and totally deplorable Trump boot licker Jason Smith will hold the seat until he resigns, dies, or is primaried by an even more deplorable Trumplican in MO-08. Titanium R, unfortunately.

[Sir Mohamed]

CA-20 is Titanium D, nothing to see here. A GOPer made it into the runoff for November, though. Jimmy Panetta, son for Leon Panetta, will win handily.

[Galeel]

MI-9. Safe D.

[Skunk]

OK-01. Safe R. Our likely candidate seems pretty cool, a kindergarten teacher named Kojo Asamoa-Caesar who is in favor of universal healthcare and obviously shows strong support for teacher pay raises. He's smart to try and attack Hern over his coronavirus vote and him being a teacher would theoretically help if this seat was at all competitive. But it isn't, so oh well.

Oh and there's also an independent running in the general but she's an obvious non-presence. Doesn't really matter, she's a perennial candidate who usually runs in Republican primaries. No biggie.

MN-04. Safe D. Betty McCollum has a couple of primary challengers, but it isn't going to matter. One of the guys also ran in 2018 and got 3.3% of the vote and the other main primary challenger (if you can describe him as that) is David Sandbeck. Sandbeck seems to be one of those annoying online socialist types who constantly attacks Biden just by looking at his Twitter. Mostly attacking McCollum for being in office for too long and taking PAC money but again, mostly spends his time attacking Joe Biden.

As for the Republican candidates, I don't know much about them since I don't really pay attention to the Republican side of things very often. But I do know that one of them (Sia Lo) is the first Hmong American to run for Congress in Minnesota, which is cool, since Hmong Americans are one of the most overlooked demographics in America and St. Paul's one of the main population centers for them. Wouldn't vote for him, obviously, but still neat to see.

Oh and finally there's the Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidate, Susan Sindt. She's ran twice in the district before in 2016 and the 2018 as the Legal Marijuana Party now candidate. I have no why Minnesota has two different third-parties who's main focus is legalizing marijuana (because these are different parties, they're running different candidates for Senator) or why Sindt made the switch, but whatever.

[Dr. MB]

live in OR-01, it's the second safest Dem race in Oregon. But it's got absolutely zero chance of flipping. Bonamici will win by 30 points again.

[Upstater]

NY-26, Higgins will win again.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

TX-23. Likely D. GOJ’s 2018 race is very notable in that she did pretty well for a Democrat in the rural areas (better than Clinton), but actually lost because she lost suburban Bexar County. I don’t think she’ll have an issue winning the suburbs this year when Trump is going to be a drag here

[Consuming is good, it's what we're made for]

PA-11, probably Safe R. Sarah Hammond dominated in the D primary, but Republicans significantly outnumber Democrats in this district. Best case scenario is an 8-10 point loss.

[EastOfEden]

MO-06, safe R. At one time it was a swing district, but Sam Graves has been winning reelection by 20+ points every two years since 2000.

Maybe the suburban realignment (just beginninng to affect KC) can shrink those margins a bit in the future. We’ll see.

[Transgender for Everybody]

NC-12 is titanium D--even if there were an R opponent, Adams would easily dispatch them by a margin of over 40%.

[Del Tachi]

Safe R

[Calthrina950]

CO-5. My district is Safe R. I absolutely despise Doug Lamborn, but he's absolutely safe in both a primary and a general. Lamborn was challenged by Owen Hill and Darryl Glenn in the primary last cycle, but he won easily with a majority of the vote. For some reason, the Republican base here-which consists predominantly of evangelicals, military voters (both active-duty and retired), and Trumpists, as well conservative white college-educated voters, continues to vote for him cycle after cycle. This is despite the fact that many people in the district don't have a particularly high opinion of him personally.

[skbl17]

I live in GA-11, home of Barry "Trump's impeachment trial is worse than the trial of Jesus Christ!" Loudermilk.

It's safe R this year, but I think there's a decent chance the Dems could crack 40% this year. The Cobb County portion of GA-11 is blue now (like the county itself) and only getting bluer, while there is some slight GOP erosion in Bartow and Cherokee. Far from enough to make the seat competitive, though.

[Bea O'Problem]

CA-47. Nothing to see here. Republican John Briscoe loses in a landslide. Lowenthal wins what will likely be his last term before retiring.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-47. Nothing to see here. Republican John Briscoe loses in a landslide. Lowenthal wins what will likely be his last term before retiring.

What happens here in 2032?

[TML]

My home district (NY-4) is expected to be a Democratic hold (although I wish the incumbent representative had faced a progressive primary challenger).

My work district (NY-1) has a Republican incumbent, but there may be a chance of Democrats picking off this seat (particularly if the nationwide result is a massive Democratic win).

[Annihilation]

Washington's seventh district is titanium D but Jayapal has a primary challenger. I originally considered supporting him but after a disastrous reddit AMA he did I decided to stick with Jayapal. The only other candidates are Republicans who seem like lunatics.