Now i understand that the executive branch has only gotten bigger since W's time, so biden will do incredible amount of damage to the energy sector and the jobs that go with it with his punitive regulations and his likely nutjobs who run the energy dept.
Ummm, those regulations will be to fight climate change, unless you think that we shouldn't do that. Also I think Cotton will be the nominee, but he's definitely on the extreme end of the party and to begin with, I see a hard time seeing any Republican win in 2024 due to demographic trends in the Sunbelt. Also Biden would probably chart a moderate course in office and would likely oversee the end of the coronavirus pandemic and the resultant economic surge, that would give Democrats some goodwill. But, on my earlier point, Cotton is pretty far right even for a Republican, and will do nothing to help the GOP win at that point, almost out of reach Sun-Belt swing voters.
Cotton doesn't have good instincts in my opinion. He has his neocon foreign policy, which is practically dead at this point and then there is his staunch opposition to any and all criminal justice reform and his stated reason was that someone would get out, kill someone, and then Republicans would get blamed.
Mass incarceration is a real problem and it is a big sticking point that keeps a nominally small gov't party away from large swaths of minority voters who might be interested in a pro-family message but aren't too keen on hearing it from the people who locked up their father because of weed possession. That is not to say that we should endorse drug use, it is to say that the extent that the war on drugs has broken up families, the Conservative movement has worked at cross purposes and undermined its own message or family and small government.
Foreign conflict works the same way and again runs in direct conflict with a party committed to family and small gov't, because when you send people to die in an unnecessary conflict like Iraq, again you end up hurting your brand and you wall yourself off from a number of voters who like a pro-family message and a small government message, but once again the agenda has worked at cross-purposes and has undermined itself.
Remember, Trump did not run as a traditional candidate, he ran very strongly against Iraq and his whole America first message played to people who were weary of such conflicts and wants a focus back on our country where things are perceived to be in decline.
The path forward has to draw from that, learn the lessons that worked and move on from the things that didn't.
1. Whoever it is cannot behave like Trump, cannot be a narcissist and must have a certainly level of demonstrated competence, preferably as a Governor, but not necessarily so. Military experience is a nice plus, and post trump that would be beneficial.
2. They have got to be in favor of foreign policy restraint and seeking to avoid foreign conflicts, rather than engaging in the kind of saber rattling that many are uncomfortable with. We cannot afford a conflict right now, the pandemic makes that doubly so and another botched conflict would wreck the GOP for decades.
3. Economic Populism. A. This doesn't have to come in the form of redistribution and perhaps you could use tax credits or something, but you need to have some way to ensure that families can get ahead and support their families. If minimum wage is a no go, then something like the Earned Income Tax Credit being expanded and increased, and structured to incentive work and at the same time lift people off of poverty and off entitlement programs.
B. Some kind of economic revitalization program, that backs away from the Trump's approach but still involves a pro-active posture against abuse like dumping and recognition of China's actions and trying to mitigate them. Generic across the board tax cuts don't work for this, as they help those areas that are already doing well for the most part. I know to the libertarian that might seem fine, "the market place choosing" but the GOP base isn't in San Francisco and New York City, it is in the suburbs of Louisville and St. Louis, as well as the post industrial towns the dot the rust belt, Appalachia and South Central United States. If you don't service the economic needs of your base (which are needs shared by a number of others that presently vote Democratic like say rural minorities), they will just overthrow you like with Trump. These places initially grew with a target program of industrialization: subsidization, protectionism and technical education. Its going to require a similar combination, perhaps with tax incentives as opposed to direct subsidies, the pro-active trade posture described above and a renewed focus on skilled trades (which have been ignored in favor of four year education for years).
4. Small Government and the Family: If strong families are the best defense against dependency on government, then the GOP needs to back away from all of the big gov't social/defense positions that have directly contributed to the splitting up of families: elective foreign war, the war on drugs, the war on crime, mass incarceration and so forth. When you consider the negative side effects of these policies and the dependency it creates you begin to see how a big government deviation begets more big gov't via increased dependence on entitlement programs, the exact opposite of what should be happening.
It is something of a paradox, the libertarians are going to gain massive ground socially in the coming years thanks to generational change as there are many younger Republicans even that just aren't on board with the policies that there parents would support. At the same time, they are going to lose ground on the economic sphere owing to the decline of middle America and the GOP's withdrawal from well to do suburbs in favor of down market areas that need government policies to help them.
