What were the main reason why John Kerry lost?
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  What were the main reason why John Kerry lost?
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Author Topic: What were the main reason why John Kerry lost?  (Read 2633 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: June 04, 2020, 08:20:55 PM »

?

Would you consider Bush a string incumbent?
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2020, 10:35:57 PM »

?

Would you consider Bush a string incumbent?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332704.0
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2020, 08:55:47 AM »

In reality, it is very difficult to defeat an incumbent, especially during wartime.  By the fall of 2004, Bush's approval numbers were not great, but they were not horrible, like they became in his second term.  His approval ratings during the fall of 2004 were just below 50%, around 48% or 49%, and his disapproval numbers were around 46% or 47%.  Basically he was treading water.  The Iraq war wasn't that popular at that time but it had not yet become as unpopular as it later became. The economy was not great but it was recovering from the early 2000s recession.  Basically the election was a tie.  In baseball a tie goes to the runner.  In elections, a tie typically goes to the incumbent, unless the opponent is a really great candidate and runs a great campaign.  That was definitely not the case with John Kerry.  Not enough to justify throwing out the incumbent.  So the dynamics favored Bush narrowly.  Even so, Kerry still came one large state (Ohio) from winning.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2020, 09:13:45 AM »

Kerry was old and boring, not dynamic like other Democratic winners (Clinton, Obama, JFK, etc.)
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2020, 06:18:05 PM »

RRusso summed it up nicely.  I'm still convinced if Kerry picked Dick Gephardt as his VP or even Bob Graham that he would've won the election.  John Edwards added nothing to the ticket and in a close race that mattered.

Dick Cheney was also an unheralded factor, if only because he cleaned Edwards clock in their debate and it served as a valued reset after Bush stumbled really badly against Kerry in the first debate.  Joe Biden also served this function in 2012 when he beat Paul Ryan and helped get some grounding under the Obama re-election effort after Obama had a poor first debate against Mitt Romney.
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2020, 09:28:12 PM »

He voted for the Iraq War. Because he opposed it later, he was a flip flopper.
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2020, 01:39:01 PM »

Kerry and the Democrats made a critical error.  By the fall of 2004, it was clear that the intelligence that was used as a justification for the Iraq war was bad.  The Democrats could have used that error and a better candidate to beat Bush.  The mistake they made was going too far in their criticism of Bush.  They accused him of knowing there were no WMD's in Iraq and deliberately falsifying the intelligence.  Kerry seemed to dial it back and say, "He misled us into war," and allow other Democrats to take it further and say, "Bush lied, people died." The problem with this argument, and Bush knew this, was that the intelligence that was used to justify the war in Iraq said the exact same thing that the intelligence during the Clinton years said.  So Kerry was put in a position of undermining a war he originally supported when the intelligence that was used as justification for that war was consistent with the intelligence that they were getting long before Bush was President.
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Chips
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2021, 10:40:38 PM »

He didn't do enough for my state's voters.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2021, 11:42:02 PM »

?

Would you consider Bush a string incumbent?
He failed to get 270 electoral votes
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2021, 06:06:18 PM »

Because of 9/11 and Bush's wars he was more popular. In fact, no sitting president running for reelection during a war has lost the elction. Without it, I can easily imagine Bush losing reelection in 2004 to a generic Democrat.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2021, 08:27:38 PM »

W. still carried just enough residual support from 9/11 & Iraq to barely make it over the finish line when contrasted against such a not-great candidate as Kerry, whose own lack of charisma & inability to defend himself against the charges of his being a flip-flopper which he himself had helped buoy did him no favors. And even then, it still took swiftboating Kerry & supporting the enshrinement of marriage inequality within a constitutional amendment for W. to pull out a win in the end.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2021, 10:56:50 AM »

RRusso summed it up nicely.  I'm still convinced if Kerry picked Dick Gephardt as his VP or even Bob Graham that he would've won the election.  John Edwards added nothing to the ticket and in a close race that mattered.

Dick Cheney was also an unheralded factor, if only because he cleaned Edwards clock in their debate and it served as a valued reset after Bush stumbled really badly against Kerry in the first debate.  Joe Biden also served this function in 2012 when he beat Paul Ryan and helped get some grounding under the Obama re-election effort after Obama had a poor first debate against Mitt Romney.
Cheney was an HP, but that Senator Gone quote was probably the best burn in a debate I have heard about.
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