Vern's NC Map

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a3be5352-e562-442c-9ab7-b5d7f60526c9


What do you guys think of this map?

[Nyvin]

The Charlotte-Union district will never happen.

The Raleigh-Johnston district is more feasible (I do like it!), but Dems would probably need to win a legislative majority or something to get that.

Good Sandhills district, that's very compact!

[Storr]

I like it as a Democrat. But, if there could be a modern NC Dem gerrymander, this is it. It clearly show why Republicans refuse to let Fayetteville be wholly in one district, since it would make its district automatically at least within reach for Democrats.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Charlotte arrangement strikes me as being highly likely to be struck down as a racial gerrymander.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A literally obvious gerrymander lmao. Putting urban Charlotte with Union County to dilute it's vote? Urban Raleigh with Johnston? Lol.

[Vern]

A literally obvious gerrymander lmao. Putting urban Charlotte with Union County to dilute it's vote? Urban Raleigh with Johnston? Lol.

And your map is any better? haha

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A literally obvious gerrymander lmao. Putting urban Charlotte with Union County to dilute it's vote? Urban Raleigh with Johnston? Lol.

And your map is any better? haha

Yes, an 8-6 D map with no competitive seats in a Trump +4 state is worse than a 8-6 R map with multiple competitive seats. I don’t really see how that is debatable. You split Raleigh and gerrymander Charlotte.

[lfromnj]

Not that bad  besides the Raleigh and Charlotte gerrymanders. Clean that up(you can get A charlotte Trump +8 seat by using Cabbarus) and put Cary if you want a competitive wake seat and give Raleigh to Durham.
This should give a nice 5 D-3 Tossup-6 Rmap.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a931f585-ad1d-4c9a-8c79-f50901969de4


There most of the map is the same partisanship wise.
The 3 major changes is the Johnson county goes to Trump +0.5 or pure tossup and trending D
The Charlotte suburban district goes to Trump +8 so lean/likely R and trending D
The Western NC district goes from Safe R at Trump +15 to Likely at Trump +12 and Mccrory +2 with a R trend mostly. Just put in Wautaga county to shift it a bit D.
The rest of the map looks mostly the same partisanship wise but I switched some of the area around Charlotte to keep the remaining suburbs/exurbs of Charlotte together in exchange for a slightly less compact but more COI based map.

I liked your map because it tried to keep a good compromise in the eastern portion of NC with the black district and 2 coastal districts and finally the sandhills, could never get a proper district there. your urban districts were clear gerrymanders so I made them pretty fair.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a931f585-ad1d-4c9a-8c79-f50901969de4


There most of the map is the same partisanship wise.
The 3 major changes is the Johnson county goes to Trump +0.5 or pure tossup and trending D
The Charlotte suburban district goes to Trump +8 so lean/likely R and trending D
The Western NC district goes from Safe R at Trump +15 to Likely at Trump +12 and Mccrory +2 with a R trend mostly. Just put in Wautaga county to shift it a bit D.
The rest of the map looks mostly the same partisanship wise but I switched some of the area around Charlotte to keep the remaining suburbs/exurbs of Charlotte together in exchange for a slightly less compact but more COI based map.

I liked your map because it tried to keep a good compromise in the eastern portion of NC with the black district and 2 coastal districts and finally the sandhills, could never get a proper district there. your urban districts were clear gerrymanders so I made them pretty fair.

Could you shift around your 10th, 11th and 14th to make your 14th district look less terrible? I can see the logic of having an exurban Charlotte seat, but the actual lines you've gone for are hideous and it's surely better to have two seats taking in exurban areas plus rural areas further out?

[Former President tack50]

A literally obvious gerrymander lmao. Putting urban Charlotte with Union County to dilute it's vote? Urban Raleigh with Johnston? Lol.

And your map is any better? haha

Yes, an 8-6 D map with no competitive seats in a Trump +4 state is worse than a 8-6 R map with multiple competitive seats. I don’t really see how that is debatable. You split Raleigh and gerrymander Charlotte.

While 8-6 is certainly fair for NC (though an argument can be made for 7-6-1); I do not think multiple competitive seats is any more unfair than a map with all safe seats.

A map that is 7-5-2 or 6-4-4 is certainly just as fair and functionally partisanly equivalent to 8-6.

In fact, I would argue that maps with multiple competitive seats are preferrable to maps with all safe seats, though it would not be the number 1 priority.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a931f585-ad1d-4c9a-8c79-f50901969de4


There most of the map is the same partisanship wise.
The 3 major changes is the Johnson county goes to Trump +0.5 or pure tossup and trending D
The Charlotte suburban district goes to Trump +8 so lean/likely R and trending D
The Western NC district goes from Safe R at Trump +15 to Likely at Trump +12 and Mccrory +2 with a R trend mostly. Just put in Wautaga county to shift it a bit D.
The rest of the map looks mostly the same partisanship wise but I switched some of the area around Charlotte to keep the remaining suburbs/exurbs of Charlotte together in exchange for a slightly less compact but more COI based map.

I liked your map because it tried to keep a good compromise in the eastern portion of NC with the black district and 2 coastal districts and finally the sandhills, could never get a proper district there. your urban districts were clear gerrymanders so I made them pretty fair.

Could you shift around your 10th, 11th and 14th to make your 14th district look less terrible? I can see the logic of having an exurban Charlotte seat, but the actual lines you've gone for are hideous and it's surely better to have two seats taking in exurban areas plus rural areas further out?

Done, I prefer the former even if the lines are uglier due to the more clear COI's rather than just pure compactness especially considering the partisanship of the districts aren't affected. Other than your disagreement my main problem with my map is the moderate split of Durham.
Obviously any VRA concerns are satisfied here.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Blairite's Fair NC Map:



NC-01: Asheville, Boone. Trump+12.6. Likely R.

NC-02: Wilkesboro, Mooresville, Mount Airy. Trump+44.7. Safe R.

NC-03: Gastonia, Hickory, Forest City. Trump+37.2. Safe R.

NC-04: High Point, Lexington, Salisbury. Trump+33.7. Safe R.

NC-05: Concord, Matthews, Indian Trail. Trump+4.8. Tossup.

NC-06: Winston-Salem, Greensboro. Clinton+20.9. Safe D.

NC-07: Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington. Clinton+27.5. Safe D.

NC-08: Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Lumberton. Clinton+1.5. Tossup.

NC-09: Wilmington, Sunset Beach, Goldsboro. Trump+14.8. Safe R.

NC-10: Raleigh, Wake Forest, Smithfield. Clinton+25.1. Safe D.

NC-11: Cary, Apex, Research Triangle Park. Clinton+7.9. Likely D.

NC-12: Jacksonville, New Bern, Elizabeth City. Trump+24.9. Safe R.

NC-13: Greenville, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids. Clinton+11.3. Safe D. Black VRA.

NC-14: Charlotte, Huntersville, Mount Holly. Clinton+33.6. Safe D. Black VRA.

All in all, a 6D-6R-2T map.

[lfromnj]

Why did you make that Cut of Charlotte and Raleigh
Thats a clear gerrymander to dilute the natural Charlotte pack and make the suburban district more D.
Raleigh does not belong with Johnston like that. Keep Cary if you want a swing seat in Wake.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why did you make that Cut of Charlotte and Raleigh
Thats a clear gerrymander to dilute the natural Charlotte pack and make the suburban district more D.
Raleigh does not belong with Johnston like that. Keep Cary if you want a swing seat in Wake.

I was actually trying to get the black % up in the Charlotte district, which means you have to remove some of the Southeast portion of the city. Besides, you have to cut Charlotte as Mecklenburg has too many people for a district unless you want to do some sort of exurban spiral seat which I don't like.

I wasn't going for a swing seat in Wake, but I wanted to keep Cary-Apex-RTP, the city of Raleigh, and Durham-Chapel Hill intact. If you have suggestions for a better way to configure this then I'm all ears.

[lfromnj]

Why did you make that Cut of Charlotte and Raleigh
Thats a clear gerrymander to dilute the natural Charlotte pack and make the suburban district more D.
Raleigh does not belong with Johnston like that. Keep Cary if you want a swing seat in Wake.

I was actually trying to get the black % up in the Charlotte district, which means you have to remove some of the Southeast portion of the city. Besides, you have to cut Charlotte as Mecklenburg has too many people for a district unless you want to do some sort of exurban spiral seat which I don't like.

I wasn't going for a swing seat in Wake, but I wanted to keep Cary-Apex-RTP, the city of Raleigh, and Durham-Chapel Hill intact. If you have suggestions for a better way to configure this then I'm all ears.

Then remove the Norther portion of Charlotte which is already a bit seperated

[lfromnj]

Wow turns out Ds really screwed themselves by trying to sue in Federal court in 2016.
Not only did the NC GOP get a free redraw which made 2 Trump +4 seats go to Safe R(these 2 would have easily flipped in 2018 , they lost the old Mell Wats district which would now actually help Democrats, both the Charlotte and Piedmont suburban/urban seat are Clinton +8 and be great statewide recruitment seats and are trending D at a decent pace while still being Likely D.So that lawsuit is probably the winner for dummymander of the decade . By costing them 2 seats in a wave year and then probably costing them a seat for a whole decade(although the GOP might be able to flip one of the seats in a wave year as Richard Burr did win the Charlotte district)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's perfectly rational to make some decisions that will look like gerrymandering in order to get a map that is designed to have a fair result. Splitting Raleigh and tinkering with the lines in Charlotte are both possibly very acceptable if done with this goal in mind.

[lfromnj]

I mean its much easier to make the Charlotte district even more AA for the VRA blairite.
Also the pink district was just seeing the maximum possible AA percentage in the Piedmont triad, its very easy to clean up with the green district if one wishes and its 38% black by CVAP(the pink district).
Also its not a partisan gerrymander FWIW as both districts would be Safe D and Safe R even if cleaned up.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I mean its much easier to make the Charlotte district even more AA for the VRA blairite.
Also the pink district was just seeing the maximum possible AA percentage in the Piedmont triad, its very easy to clean up with the green district if one wishes and its 38% black by CVAP(the pink district).
Also its not a partisan gerrymander FWIW as both districts would be Safe D and Safe R even if cleaned up.

I get that, but I also think compactness matters. I just can't get behind a district which has a narrow arm spiraling 2/3 of the way around Charlotte. Also, you still aggressively cut SE Charlotte and get even closer to the city center. In the context of a truly fair map (rather than a incumbent-protection gerry or a deal where both parties grab the demographics and communities they want and put them in their districts) I think clean lines matter--ideally following municipal or neighborhood or natural or county borders, and I can't get behind what you did to the Triad there.

[lfromnj]

Again the Triad is very easy to clean up, was just checking it out,


Heres a even cleaner version of the Charlotte that is quite compact and still COI based rather than adding some random titanium R voters from Gastonia to make the AA district less D while allowing more of the Southern triangle to be taken for the suburban district.
FWIW if you ask the white swingy urbanites near the city center I am 90% sure they would still want to be in the light blue district.

As I said I was just checking out the Triad district and don't support it myself, just wanted to see if a court might order it.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Blairite's Fair NC Map:



NC-01: Asheville, Boone. Trump+12.6. Likely R.

NC-02: Wilkesboro, Mooresville, Mount Airy. Trump+44.7. Safe R.

NC-03: Gastonia, Hickory, Forest City. Trump+37.2. Safe R.

NC-04: High Point, Lexington, Salisbury. Trump+33.7. Safe R.

NC-05: Concord, Matthews, Indian Trail. Trump+4.8. Tossup.

NC-06: Winston-Salem, Greensboro. Clinton+20.9. Safe D.

NC-07: Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington. Clinton+27.5. Safe D.

NC-08: Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Lumberton. Clinton+1.5. Tossup.

NC-09: Wilmington, Sunset Beach, Goldsboro. Trump+14.8. Safe R.

NC-10: Raleigh, Wake Forest, Smithfield. Clinton+25.1. Safe D.

NC-11: Cary, Apex, Research Triangle Park. Clinton+7.9. Likely D.

NC-12: Jacksonville, New Bern, Elizabeth City. Trump+24.9. Safe R.

NC-13: Greenville, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids. Clinton+11.3. Safe D. Black VRA.

NC-14: Charlotte, Huntersville, Mount Holly. Clinton+33.6. Safe D. Black VRA.

All in all, a 6D-6R-2T map.

Again, this is a literal gerrymander. There is no way you can justify putting Johnston County with urban Raleigh to turn it blue. And that's not even speaking of Charlotte.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Blairite's Fair NC Map:



NC-01: Asheville, Boone. Trump+12.6. Likely R.

NC-02: Wilkesboro, Mooresville, Mount Airy. Trump+44.7. Safe R.

NC-03: Gastonia, Hickory, Forest City. Trump+37.2. Safe R.

NC-04: High Point, Lexington, Salisbury. Trump+33.7. Safe R.

NC-05: Concord, Matthews, Indian Trail. Trump+4.8. Tossup.

NC-06: Winston-Salem, Greensboro. Clinton+20.9. Safe D.

NC-07: Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington. Clinton+27.5. Safe D.

NC-08: Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Lumberton. Clinton+1.5. Tossup.

NC-09: Wilmington, Sunset Beach, Goldsboro. Trump+14.8. Safe R.

NC-10: Raleigh, Wake Forest, Smithfield. Clinton+25.1. Safe D.

NC-11: Cary, Apex, Research Triangle Park. Clinton+7.9. Likely D.

NC-12: Jacksonville, New Bern, Elizabeth City. Trump+24.9. Safe R.

NC-13: Greenville, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids. Clinton+11.3. Safe D. Black VRA.

NC-14: Charlotte, Huntersville, Mount Holly. Clinton+33.6. Safe D. Black VRA.

All in all, a 6D-6R-2T map.

Again, this is a literal gerrymander. There is no way you can justify putting Johnston County with urban Raleigh to turn it blue. And that's not even speaking of Charlotte.

Where does Johnston County go, then? The Wilmington, Sandhills, Outer Banks, and Inner Banks districts are fairly drawn and they don't have room for Johnston. It's sort of the odd county out, but I don't see what I can do with it except push it into the Triangle. And what's wrong with Charlotte? I kept the bulk of Mecklenburg intact and took the whitest, most Republican precincts in the county and paired them with the suburbs.

[Sol]

Fwiw, it's possible to draw an exurban district where Johnston County fits in well:



Ignore the jagged cuts in Wayne and Lenoir; was trying to increase the Black CVAP. A cleaner version can be done easily with no difference elsewhere. FWIW, I'd prefer to send the 4th into Lee instead of Wake, but Lee has these jumbo precincts which aren't suited for county splitting.

Here's the link:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d29f7ea3-9a56-4727-a8f6-edfdb70b884e

[lfromnj]

Blairite's Fair NC Map:



NC-01: Asheville, Boone. Trump+12.6. Likely R.

NC-02: Wilkesboro, Mooresville, Mount Airy. Trump+44.7. Safe R.

NC-03: Gastonia, Hickory, Forest City. Trump+37.2. Safe R.

NC-04: High Point, Lexington, Salisbury. Trump+33.7. Safe R.

NC-05: Concord, Matthews, Indian Trail. Trump+4.8. Tossup.

NC-06: Winston-Salem, Greensboro. Clinton+20.9. Safe D.

NC-07: Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington. Clinton+27.5. Safe D.

NC-08: Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Lumberton. Clinton+1.5. Tossup.

NC-09: Wilmington, Sunset Beach, Goldsboro. Trump+14.8. Safe R.

NC-10: Raleigh, Wake Forest, Smithfield. Clinton+25.1. Safe D.

NC-11: Cary, Apex, Research Triangle Park. Clinton+7.9. Likely D.

NC-12: Jacksonville, New Bern, Elizabeth City. Trump+24.9. Safe R.

NC-13: Greenville, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids. Clinton+11.3. Safe D. Black VRA.

NC-14: Charlotte, Huntersville, Mount Holly. Clinton+33.6. Safe D. Black VRA.

All in all, a 6D-6R-2T map.

Again, this is a literal gerrymander. There is no way you can justify putting Johnston County with urban Raleigh to turn it blue. And that's not even speaking of Charlotte.

Where does Johnston County go, then? The Wilmington, Sandhills, Outer Banks, and Inner Banks districts are fairly drawn and they don't have room for Johnston. It's sort of the odd county out, but I don't see what I can do with it except push it into the Triangle. And what's wrong with Charlotte? I kept the bulk of Mecklenburg intact and took the whitest, most Republican precincts in the county and paired them with the suburbs.

Johnston goes with wake and some other exurbs but not the city of Raleigh itself.