Coronavirus at the Convention - a 2020 TL

[John King wannabe]

I believe that Pelosi will serve as POTUS until January 20, 2021 and delay her swearing-in to her Congressional seat until that date. House most likely elects an interim Speaker who will step down for Pelosi.

Pelosi has said she will step down from the Speakership in 2021 regardless, though I guess that could change ITTL given the circumstances.

Pelosi said she will step down in 2023 after the 2022 midterms*

[OBD]

I believe that Pelosi will serve as POTUS until January 20, 2021 and delay her swearing-in to her Congressional seat until that date. House most likely elects an interim Speaker who will step down for Pelosi.

Pelosi has said she will step down from the Speakership in 2021 regardless, though I guess that could change ITTL given the circumstances.

Pelosi said she will step down in 2023 after the 2022 midterms*

I'll try and address this during the next update, which should be out by around July 20 (I don't have time until then). That said, I'm most likely going to have her step down - the Presidency is a stressful job and Schiff, who's already Speaker, is a good replacement.

[tarrant]

To become acting President, she would have to resign her seat in the House too. You can't work for more than one branch of government at the same time.

[TarHeelDem]

Who's Pelosi's VP? With COVID raging it seems irresponsible not to select and have the Senate confirm one.

[OBD]

Here's a update to answer some pressing questions y'all have. Hope this helps.

Haley, Republicans face uphill climb in November
September 27, 2020
While the GOP has advanced out of their second convention (mostly) united, their prospects against Biden are far from ideal. In recent polls, the Haley/Trump ticket has trailed the Democratic one nationally by high single digits, and formerly Republican states like Ohio (Biden +1), Georgia (Tied), and Texas (Biden +2) are surprisingly in play (not to mention Biden’s 7-point lead in Arizona). Though Haley is not as divisive as the late President, it appears unlikely that she can mount a comeback from this far down - despite her being a young, charismatic female minority. That said, many prominent Republicans who had previously endorsed Joe Biden, including Mitt Romney and the Bush clan, now appear to be lining up behind the new GOP ticket...

DNC, RNC agree to new debate schedule
September 29, 2020
Following tripartite negotiations between the Biden and Haley campaigns, as well as the Commission on Presidential Debates, a new schedule and format for debates has been agreed upon, factoring in the Biden campaign’s desire to ensure a safe, socially distance environment and the Haley campaign’s desire to have more time to prepare. With COVID-19 still strong in Florida, the October 15th debate has been moved to the University of Notre Dame in South Bend (the location for today’s cancelled debate), and both candidates will only be able to bring small entourages to the debate sites, which will have no audiences. Additionally, the Vice Presidential Debate has been moved to the 15th (with the 1st Presidential Debate taking the October 7th slot), and a 3rd Presidential Debate, scheduled on the 29th, will be hosted at the University of Oregon in Eugene (Oregon has a relatively low number of COVID-19 cases). While the decision to hold a debate so close to the election has raised eyebrows among pundits, both campaigns wanted the extra opportunity to make their case to the American people...


Pelosi, in surprise announcement, appoints James Stavridis to Vice Presidency following negotiations with McConnell, Republicans - will not run for re-election
October 1, 2020
Ever since President Trump’s death and Mike Pence’s subsequent resignation, the Vice Presidency has been vacant, and due to Republican control of the U.S Senate, filling it has not been one of President Pelosi’s top priorities. Today, though, Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reached a deal, appointing compromise pick Admiral James Stavridis to the job. In a joint statement to the press, Pelosi and McConnell stated that Stavridis was a “dedicated and patriotic public servant who will serve admirably as a temporary Vice President”, also boasting that the appointment will secure the line of succession in the unlikely event that Pelosi contracts the coronavirus. Several progressive Democrats, including AOC and Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, have criticized the choice, as they had hoped Pelosi would appoint a more liberal politician to break ties in the Senate. However, responses from both parties have generally been enthusiastic, with the nomination garnering praise from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Utah Senator Mitt Romney, and the Senate is expected to approve the appointment quickly.

Additionally, President Pelosi made another shocking announcement - she would not be running for re-election to the U.S House, thus stepping down from politics after 2021. In her statement, she cited the stress of the Presidency and hyperpolarized politics in general as factors in her decision, and expressed confidence that House Speaker Schiff would be able to carry on her agenda in the house most adequately. Many Democrats, including Schiff, Biden, and Obama, have since tweeted out statements of support for the longtime Democratic House leader, who leaves behind a long, distinguished record of service. As Pelosi is already on the ballot in November, she is expected to resign her seat on the swear-in date for the 117th U.S Congress, thus triggering a special election. San Francisco Mayor London Breed has been floated as a potential candidate for this seat...

President Pelosi Approval Ratings
Approve 51% (+2)
Disapprove 43% (-1)
Undecided/Neutral 6% (-1)
APPROVE +8

2020 General Election
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris 52% (--)
Nikki Haley / Donald Trump Jr. 41% (--)
Undecided/Other 7% (--)
BIDEN +11

[OBD]

State of the Race: October 2020

Following the unexpected death of President Donald Trump, the 2020 race appears to finally be settling down, with VP Biden and Senator Harris facing off against the new Republican ticket, consisting of former Governor Nikki Haley and the late President’s son, Donald Trump Junior. While Haley maintains higher approvals than the late Commander-in-Chief, polls thus far indicate that Biden’s strong lead, motivated by a weak federal response to COVID-19 and this year’s racial justice movements, has not wavered. At press time, POLITICO’s polling average had Biden ahead by an average of 10.8 points - a commanding lead that Republicans will be hard-pressed to overcome, even without the highly polarizing Trump on the ballot (at least technically).

Today, though, we’re diving into the state of the race for the U.S Senate, while Democrats are aiming to gain the 4 seats requisite to retake the chamber, while Republicans seek to defend it. We’ll take a look at the polling averages in each state, and give our best prognosis for how we believe things will shake out in November.

Alabama
Senator Doug Jones (D) vs. Football Coach Tommy Tuberville
State Polling Average (President): Haley +20.6
State Polling Average (Senate): Tuberville +10.2
In the Yellowhammer State, incumbent Senator Doug Jones, who won election in a 2017 upset over Roy Moore, is facing an uphill climb in one of the most Republican states in the nation. His opponent, former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, defeated former Senator Jeff Sessions in a closely contested primary. While Jones’s lingering crossover appeal from his 2017 win has him running significantly ahead of Biden here, polarization has placed his campaign in a tricky position, and word out of the DNC is that he’s at risk of triage. Most outlets rate this contest  Likely R Gain, one of the GOP’s few pickup opportunities.

Alaska
Senator Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Doctor Al Gross (I)
State Polling Average (President): Haley +8.3
State Polling Average (Senate): Sullivan +7.6
Dan Sullivan, Alaska’s incumbent Republican Senator, unseated Democrat Mark Begich in a close 2014 race. This year, though, he faces Dr. Al Gross, a DNC-backed Independent looking to ride a combination of Democratic momentum and Alaska’s historic elasticity to the Senate. However, Alaska hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and Sullivan has held a modest, but consistent, lead in both fundraising and polling - making this race a tough lift for Dr. Gross, who thus far has been unable to capitalize on split tickets (only outrunning Biden by a little under a point). While Alaska may be unusually close on the Presidential level, most pundits rate this contest Likely R Hold.

Arizona
Senator Martha McSally (R) vs. Astronaut Mark Kelly (D)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +7.7
State Polling Average (Senate): Kelly +12.3
Arizona, once a Republican stronghold, turned hard to the left during the Trump era, electing its first Democratic Senator in 25 years, Krysten Sinema, in 2018. Following the death of longtime Arizona political icon John McCain, Sinema’s defeated opponent, Rep. Martha McSally, was appointed to replace him - and she’s now up for election. Sadly for her and the GOP, though, Democrats have surged in the Grand Canyon State - both McSally and Haley trail here by significant margins. While Haley may be a more appealing candidate for the Phoenix suburbs racing away from the GOP, McSally is still significantly underperforming her party’s national ticket - even if Haley pulls off a comeback and wins Arizona, the state’s Senate seat might still flip. Thus, the consensus rating here is Likely D Pickup.

Colorado
Senator Cory Gardner (R) vs. Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper (D)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +16.8
State Polling Average (Senate): Hickenlooper +12.5
Simply put, Cory Gardner, Colorado’s last elected statewide Republican and Trump loyalist, is in deep trouble this election cycle. Biden leads Haley in Colorado by an eye-popping 17 points, and while polling has been (fairly) sparse, there’s no denying that Democrats have made huge inroads here. And, despite a bruising primary, Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper advanced to the general election, a development that likely dealt a fatal blow to Gardner’s re-election chances. While Hickenlooper is notoriously prone to gaffes, the fundamentals in Colorado are highly unfavorable to Gardner - thus, most pundits rate this race Likely D Pickup.

Georgia
Regular: Senator David Perdue (R) vs. Media Executive and 2017 Congressional Candidate Jon Ossoff
Special: Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) vs. Representative Doug Collins (R) vs. Reverend Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Matt Liebermann (D)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +1.3
State Polling Average (Senate-Regular): Perdue +0.5
State Polling Average (Senate-Special-Runoff Collins v. Warnock): Warnock +1.0
Georgia, like Arizona, is a former Republican stronghold with multiple competitive races this year - both of the state’s Senate seats are up for grabs, and the Presidential race here is also close (made more so by Haley’s nomination - the Republican nominee resides in neighboring South Carolina). However, several factors here might blunt Democratic success in the state. Firstly, under Secretary of State and later-Governor Brian Kemp, Georgia has become notorious for allegations of voter suppression, and with coronavirus limiting in-person voting options, it’s unclear how accessible mail-in voting will be in the state. Secondly, Georgia’s runoff system means that Democrats will likely have to get over 50% in the first round to win - runoffs trigger if neither candidates receives 50%, and Democrats would likely struggle to turn out their base in that event. Special election candidate Raphael Warnock will almost certainly not hit this ‘magic number’, and Ossoff’s chances of hitting 50% are just slightly less slim. Lastly, recruiting in Georgia has not been kind to Democrats. Warnock, who preaches at the pulpit once occupied by Martin Luther King, is a solid get. However, Jon Ossoff lost a heavily nationalized race in a district that voted 3.5 points to the left of the state in 2017, only to see that same district (the 6th) flip in 2018, albeit by an extremely narrow margin, casting doubts upon his ability to win the state at-large. The consensus is that both seats are Lean R Hold for these reasons, though neither is unwinnable by any metric.

Iowa:
Senator Joni Ernst (R) vs. Businesswoman Theresa Greenfield (D)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +0.4
State Polling Average (Senate): Ernst +0.7
Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst won election in the wave year of 2014 by a solid 9-point margin, becoming the first Republican to hold the seat in 30 years. This year, she faces businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, who won a contested primary as the DNC’s preferred candidate. While many, given Iowa’s hard turn right in 2016, were quick to declare Ernst safe, Biden has returned the Hawkeye State to contested status - the Democratic ticket is virtually tied here, while Ernst just barely outperforms her fellow female candidate. Thus, Greenfield has a very real chance of victory here - that said, if Biden falters, her path to victory will be significantly narrowed. The consensus rating here is a pure Tossup.

Kansas:
Fmr. KS Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) vs. State Senator Barbara Bollier (D)
State Polling Average (President): Haley +8.2
State Polling Average (Senate): Marshall +5.4
Six years after Greg Orman’s independent candidacy gave the Kansas GOP a mild scare, and two years after Brownback blowback handed the state’s governorship to Democrat Laura Kelly, the typically Titanium GOP state is playing host to another somewhat competitive election. Republican Kris Kobach, the lightning-rod former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial candidate, fell to U.S Representative Roger Marshall in a relief to the state GOP, potentially avoiding a competitive matchup with State Senator Barbara Bollier. However, Bollier has proven to be a strong candidate, performing almost as well against Marshall as she would have against Kobach. Additionally, Biden is within striking distance here, making Bollier’s goal of outrunning the national ticket by enough to win a good deal easier. All media outlets rate this Leans Republican, as Kansas continues its march to the left.

Kentucky:
Senator Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Fmr. Fighter Pilot Amy McGrath(D)
State Polling Average (President): Haley +21.5
State Polling Average (Senate): McConnell +10.8
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been a boogeyman for Democrats ever since he ascended to the head of the GOP Senate caucus - known widely for blocking liberal legislation and judicial nominations, and for his role in acquitting the late President Trump during the 2020 impeachment trial. Consequently, Democrats would love to unseat him - however, despite his unpopularity, McConnell is deeply entrenched in his home state, deep-red Kentucky, winning several elections dating back to the 1980s by varying margins. This round, he’s challenged by fighter pilot and 2018 KY-06 candidate Amy McGrath, who narrowly defeated progressive state legislator Charles Booker in the primary. Despite running a high-profile campaign with a large warchest, McGrath has thus far been unable to make a dent in McConnell’s polling numbers, and the Majority Leader is favored strongly here (though the GOP Senate majority is far less secure). Likely R Hold

Maine
Senator Susan Collins (R) vs. Maine HoR Speaker Sara Gideon (D)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +10.9
State Polling Average (Senate): Gideon +6.2
Susan Collins has long been an entrenched moderate Senator in the Pine Tree State, winning re-election by huge margins since the turn of the century thanks to strong cross-over support - she won with 68% of the vote in 2014. However, Maine Democrats believe that her support of the Kavanaugh nomination and her vote to acquit Trump have, at long last, eroded Collins’s bipartisan goodwill. Thus far, polling has backed that hypothesis, with State House Speaker Sara Gideon leading Collins by a decent margin - and, unlike past campaigns where Collins far outstripped other GOP tickets in the state, she’s only ‘beating’ Haley by a relatively meager 4 points. While pundits have been reluctant to shift this race away from Tossup, sources from both Maine parties believe that the contest is, at least, Lean D Pickup - and Maine’s unique RCV system will likely give the Democrats an extra boost here.


Michigan
Senator Gary Peters (D) vs. Businessman John James (R)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +8.8
State Polling Average (Senate): Peters +9.6
After a surprisingly strong performance against Debbie Stabenow in the 2018 wave election, Republican businessman John James has thrown his hat in the ring again, challenging freshman Senator Gary Peters in a state that was a key cog in Trump’s upset victory in 2016. However, Michigan appears to be far less friendly to Republicans this cycle, and Senator Peters has, somewhat surprisingly, mounted a fairly energetic campaign against James (likely in an attempt to avoid the fate of vanquished Florida Senator Bill Nelson). With Biden holding a robust lead in the state, James has struggled to gain momentum, and pundits agree that Peters appears to be headed for re-election, rating the race Likely D Hold on average.

Minnesota
Senator Tina Smith (D) vs. Fmr. Representative Jason Lewis (R)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +10.3
State Polling Average (Senate): Smith +11.7
Incumbent Senator Tina Smith was appointed to her position in the wake of the infamous Al Franken sex scandal, and won a lightly-contested race in 2018 against State Senator Karin Housley. This year, she’s being challenged by Former Congressman Jason Lewis, who was defeated in the 2018 wave election by Angie Craig. While the RNC targeted the seat earlier in the year, a rapidly collapsing situation across the nation have forced them to pivot to defense, leaving Lewis out to dry. Accordingly, pundits expect Smith to be re-elected easily, rating the seat Safe D Hold.

Montana
Senator Steve Daines (R) vs. Governor Steve Bullock (D)
State Polling Average (President): Haley +9.6
State Polling Average (Senate): Bullock +1.5
In Big Sky Country, the highly competitive Battle of the Steves has attracted national attention after Governor Steve Bullock unexpectedly jumped into the race after an aborted Presidential campaign. While Montana has long been solidly Republican on the presidential level, it’s elected several Democrats to statewide offices recently, including Senator Jon Tester (2006, 2012, 2018) and Governor Bullock himself (2012, 2016), and thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, Bullock has received a boost in both visibility and popularity. Helped by Montana’s trend of swinging against presidential incumbents, Bullock has opened up a slight lead, but no one is favored at this juncture. This race is a Tossup as long as the national environment stays favorable to Democrats.

North Carolina
Senator Thom Tillis (R) vs. Fmr. State Senator Cal Cunningham (D)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +5.3
State Polling Average (Senate): Cunningham +4.5
Senator Thom Tillis has been high on the DNC’s target list ever since he defeated the late Kay Hagan in 2014. This year, he faces former state senator Cal Cunningham, who won a mildly contested March primary. While Cunningham hasn’t been in elected office since 2003, strong fundraising and a left-leaning environment in the state have allowed him to take a fairly stable lead here. That said, Haley’s nomination could help Republicans here, and multiple sources in the RNC believe that the Haley campaign will pour a copious amount of resources into the state to defend Tillis - however, given their current deficit, the impact of this is thus far unclear. Currently, most pundits are rating this race Lean D Pickup.

South Carolina
Senator Lindsay Graham (R) vs. Fmr. State Dem Chair Jaime Harrison (D)
State Polling Average (President): Haley +9.8
State Polling Average (Senate): Graham +2.3
In the Other Carolina, incumbent Senator Lindsay Graham has rapidly become one of the most hated Republicans among liberals, becoming one of Trump’s staunchest defenders after defecting from the #NeverTrump movement in 2017. This year, he draws a strong challenge from former South Carolina Dem Chair Jaime Harrison, who, like Amy McGrath in Kentucky, has a huge warchest and strong grassroots appeal. However, while South Carolina is a more plausible Democratic target then Mitch McConnell’s seat in Kentucky, native daughter Nikki Haley’s selection as GOP nominee could give Graham the coattails he needs to ride to victory. Either way, the race remains Lean R Hold, upgraded from Tossup following Haley's addition to the ticket.

Texas
Senator John Cornyn (R) vs. Air Force Veteran M.J Hegar(D)
State Polling Average (President): Biden +1.0
State Polling Average (Senate): Cornyn +0.2
Once a Republican stronghold, the Lone Star state has burst into competitiveness this cycle - Biden and Trump/Haley have run neck-and-neck here since June, and Democratic Senate Candidate MJ Hegar has harnessed this energy to pull within striking distance of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. While Hegar’s campaign hasn’t quite recaptured the magic of Beto O’Rourke’s insurgent 2018 run against Ted Cruz, Cornyn isn’t well-loved within the state, and nearly all Biden voters here seem to be willing to fall behind Hegar. Republicans are banking on Haley to regain ground in suburban areas (a major playing field in Texas), but as of now, this race is a Tossup, against all odds.

PATH TO THE MAJORITY (538 Model)

Democratic Seat #43 / Republican Seat #58: Tom Udall retiring (D-NM) - Safe D Hold
D #44 / R #57: Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) - Safe D Hold
D #45 / R #56: Tina Smith (D-MN) - Safe D Hold
D #46 / R #55: Cory Gardner (R-CO) - Likely D Pickup
D #47 / R #54: Martha McSally (R-AZ) - Likely D Pickup
D #48 / R #53: Gary Peters (D-MI) - Likely D Hold
D #49 / R #52: Susan Collins (R-ME) - Lean D Pickup
D #50 / R #51: Thom Tillis (R-NC) - Lean D Pickup - Tipping Point Seat (Biden Win)
D #51 / R #50: Steve Daines (R-MT) - Lean D Pickup - Tipping Point Seat (Haley Win)
D #52 / R #49: Pat Roberts retiring (R-KS) - Tossup
D #53 / R #48: John Cornyn (R-TX) - Tossup
D #54 / R #47: David Perdue (R-GA) - Lean R Hold
D #55 / R #46: Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) - Lean R Hold
D #56 / R #45: Joni Ernst (R-IA) - Lean R Hold
D #57 / R #44: Lindsey Graham (R-SC) - Likely R Hold
D #58 / R #43: Dan Sullivan (R-AK) - Likely R Hold
D #59 / R #42: Doug Jones(D-AL) - Likely R Gain
D #60 / R #41 Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - Likely R Hold
D #61 / R #40 Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) - Safe R Hold

Note: A seat that is labelled D #XX indicates that said seat will be the Democrats's XXth seat in the Senate, assuming they win it.


ALSO OF NOTE
Ed Markey defeated Joe Kennedy III in the Massachusetts primary in a semi-upset, winning by a narrow 51-49 margin.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Go Bollier!

[MichaelRbn]

Just to be clear: 25th Amendment provides that nominee for a vice-presidential vacancy must be confirmed by a majority vote of both houses.

[NewYorkExpress]

Correct, and it would be really out of character for Republicans to approve of any choice Pelosi makes.

[OBD]

Just to be clear: 25th Amendment provides that nominee for a vice-presidential vacancy must be confirmed by a majority vote of both houses.

Correct, and it would be really out of character for Republicans to approve of any choice Pelosi makes.

I mentioned above that Pelosi and McConnell came to a deal to appoint James Stavridis to the seat. In this case, partisan considerations are outweighed by fear of coronavirus wrecking more havoc in the chain of succession, so both sides are willing to go with a fairly neutral compromise pick.

[OBD]

Trump Jr. Catches Flak For Retweeting Conspiracy Theories
October 5, 2020
The selection of Donald Trump Jr. as the Republican Vice Presidential Candidate appears to have successfully united both the establishment and Trumpist factions of the GOP behind the Haley campaign - however, many GOP operatives have privately expressed worry that some of his more erratic tendencies could disrupt their strategy. Today, those concerns manifested, as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate retweeted several tweets promoting various QANON conspiracy theories, including one pinning the death of Donald Trump on a ‘swamp conspiracy’ of the DNC and several ‘#NeverTrump’ Republican operatives. While many pundits concur that Trump Jr.’s actions will not hurt his standing with the GOP base, it’s very possible that a few independent supporters of the Haley ticket could be repulsed by this incident. And, it’s almost certain that Trump Jr. will face flak from Senator Kamala Harris in the Vice Presidential debate over this issue...

Haley emerges victorious in 1st Debate as Biden stumbles
October 8, 2020
Joe Biden’s debating skills have been under question since the Democratic Primary - after several lackluster performances in 2019 that nearly cost him the nomination, he ultimately pulled off a string of strong-to-adequate debates to surge back into the race and fend off Bernie Sanders. Headed into the general election, the Biden campaign had prepared studiously for three debate showdowns with President Trump - however, Trump’s death threw a wrench in this strategy. While the Haley campaign pushed harder for debate postponement - citing a need for an extension in preparation time, it appears that it was Biden, not the South Carolina politician, that was greviously underprepared for the coronavirus-focused debate. Throughout the debate, held at the University of Utah, Biden appeared out of depth - many pundits believe he focused too much on hammering the late President’s handling of the crisis (including a humiliating gaffe where Biden lambasted the White House’s COVID response in present tense before realizing that Pelosi now occupied the Oval Office), while Haley managed to both distance herself from the unpopular Trump response and tacitly defend it successfully. The former U.N Ambassador did take some time to adjust to the debate stage, however, after the first 20 minutes, she came off as both deft and charismatic, in contrast to Biden, who was clearly struggling during the 2nd half of the debate. Republicans hope that Haley’s comprehensive debate win will be the first step onto a quickly-widening path towards a conservative comeback - meanwhile, the Biden campaign is reportedly undertaking damage control tactics. That said, a DNC aide said that the debate “was by no means a deathblow - Vice President Biden and his team are confident that the American people will not vote for 4 more years of GOP incompetence”.

Can Haley Actually Win? Unified GOP launches comeback bid
October 11, 2020
Following a strong debate performance, Ambassador Haley has regained significant ground in polls, narrowing Biden’s national lead to a seven-point average (trailing by 5 points in Morning Consult, trailing by 8 in Gallup). Additionally, flash polls in several swing states indicate that Haley has seemingly made large gains post-debate:

Morning Consult (compared with October 4 MC polls)
Texas: Biden +1 -> Haley +2
Ohio: Biden +1 -> Haley +1
Iowa: Biden +2 -> Haley +3
Georgia: Haley +1 -> Haley +3
Arizona: Biden +6 -> Biden +5
Florida: Biden +7 -> Biden +5

Hoping to capitalize on this surge, the Haley campaign has launched a renewed offensive into both swing states and Biden-leaning states - they have reportedly made large ad buys in the Rust Belt and Florida, while Haley and Trump Jr. are slated to tour the South over the next week. However, with the Vice Presidential debate coming, Republicans will have to hope that Donald Trump Jr. can hold his own against Senator Harris, a far more experienced politician and debater...

Haley drops sharply on PredictIt - Cause Unclear
October 14, 2020 - 5:50 AM EST
After two weeks of consistent rise from 12 cents to 38 cents, motivated by a vigorous campaign and a decisive debate victory, Nikki Haley’s PredictIt stock has suddenly dropped sharply, to 23 cents. The reasons for this abrupt plunge, which was reported by several tabloid magazines and the “Daily Kos”, are currently unclear - however, the Haley campaign has reportedly cancelled several events - including VP candidate Donald Trump Jr.’s Charlotte rally and Ambassador Haley’s campaign tour in Central Texas with Senator Cornyn - without comment to the media and prospective attendees. While our sources in the RNC are silent, several DNC aides have speculated that Haley and/or Trump Jr. tested positive for coronavirus...



Who won the First Debate?
Nikki Haley 53%
Joe Biden 34%
Undecided 13%

Pelosi Approval Rating
Approve 49% (--)
Disapprove 44% (--)
Undecided/Neutral 7% (--)
APPROVE +5

2020 General Election
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris 50% (-1)
Nikki Haley / Donald Trump Jr 43% (+1)
Undecided / Other 7% (--)
BIDEN +7

[NewYorkExpress]

Are you going to kill off Haley/Trump Jr. too?

Still think you can't do all this, without killing off Biden. It's very unrealistic for Trump/Pence etc. to get COVID, and get seriously ill/die without Biden also getting seriously ill and dying too.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Are you going to kill off Haley/Trump Jr. too?

Still think you can't do all this, without killing off Biden. It's very unrealistic for Trump/Pence etc. to get COVID, and get seriously ill/die without Biden also getting seriously ill and dying too.

Biden ain't leaving his basement. Biden's good.

[NewYorkExpress]

Are you going to kill off Haley/Trump Jr. too?

Still think you can't do all this, without killing off Biden. It's very unrealistic for Trump/Pence etc. to get COVID, and get seriously ill/die without Biden also getting seriously ill and dying too.

Biden ain't leaving his basement. Biden's good.

He left his basement for the debate...

[John King wannabe]

Are you going to kill off Haley/Trump Jr. too?

Still think you can't do all this, without killing off Biden. It's very unrealistic for Trump/Pence etc. to get COVID, and get seriously ill/die without Biden also getting seriously ill and dying too.

Biden ain't leaving his basement. Biden's good.

He left his basement for the debate...

If Kamala is elevated to the top of the ticket I swear to god...

[OBD]

Are you going to kill off Haley/Trump Jr. too?

Still think you can't do all this, without killing off Biden. It's very unrealistic for Trump/Pence etc. to get COVID, and get seriously ill/die without Biden also getting seriously ill and dying too.

Biden ain't leaving his basement. Biden's good.

He left his basement for the debate...

If Kamala is elevated to the top of the ticket I swear to god...

Guys, guys, guys. Just because he's like 87 isn't a guarantee that Biden will get and succumb to COVID. ITTL his team is taking the proper precautions (as in IRL) so it's unlikely that he gets it. Additionally, I'd say that Biden's campaign is careful about social distance and masks at (limited) in-person rallies, so there's that too.

[McGarnagle]

You should revive this. It seems quite possible something like this timeline could happen what with the big maskless event outside the White House. We'll find out in a couple weeks.

[NewYorkExpress]

Given Trump just tested positive for COVID, maybe you should come back to this?

[OBD]

Well this aged well.

I suppose I have no choice. I'll look into doing an update soon, though obviously the timing's quite a bit off.

[We Live in Black and White]

Goddamn, I think you might have predicted the future.

[NewYorkExpress]

Goddamn, I think you might have predicted the future.

We'll know if this kills Trump.

[BigVic]

This was 3 months ago

[McGarnagle]

You should revive this. It seems quite possible something like this timeline could happen what with the big maskless event outside the White House. We'll find out in a couple weeks.

Took about five weeks

[LAKISYLVANIA]

LOL.

[OBD]

Quick announcement regarding the next update. I'm retconning Kris Kobach's primary defeat at the hands of Roger Marshall, and am changing the polling of that race accordingly. I may also adjust some polls to better reflect IRL circumstances.

Regarding the death of RBG, this will happen shortly in this TL. Given the vastly different implications of her death with a President Pelosi, retconning it wouldn't allow enough description of said implications.