The election is basically over, isnt it?

[xavier110]

I believe the Trump campaign has some significant dirt on Biden (oppo research) that they have not dumped yet just how Bush had stuff on Kerry in 2004.

They went through a disinformation operation to manufacture that stuff and he got impeached for it.

And then the Trump campaign/Russians seemingly tried to do it again via Reade.

Nothing's been sticking, but their pattern of behavior suggests they'll try to invent something again. After focusing on nepotism/corruption and sexual assault allegations, I don't know what else they could try to create, though. It seems as if the media has gotten a little better at sniffing out the BS. There's a reason why the Reade story never really took flight.

[SN2903]

I believe the Trump campaign has some significant dirt on Biden (oppo research) that they have not dumped yet just how Bush had stuff on Kerry in 2004.

(And disclaimer: this isn't me attacking you, SN). 

You're basing this on...what, exactly? (Besides "a gut feeling" and "chances are good that he has something"). 

The Trump campaign has not started a negative ad blitz on Biden yet. I believe they have oppo research on him just judging on history how Bush and Obama both did on their opponents for re-election.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I already started this exact thread two months ago when it was obvious that Trump’s coronavirus response was going to be a disaster.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=367546.0

[SN2903]

I believe the Trump campaign has some significant dirt on Biden (oppo research) that they have not dumped yet just how Bush had stuff on Kerry in 2004.

They went through a disinformation operation to manufacture that stuff and he got impeached for it.

And then the Trump campaign/Russians seemingly tried to do it again via Reade.

Nothing's been sticking, but their pattern of behavior suggests they'll try to invent something again. After focusing on nepotism/corruption and sexual assault allegations, I don't know what else they could try to create, though. It seems as if the media has gotten a little better at sniffing out the BS. There's a reason why the Reade story never really took flight.

I think there is more women who will come with allegations.

[ProudModerate2]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

I was thinking the same thing.
There was another post, from another individual, that also mentioned this.
There isn't a chance in Hell that trump would start "acting like an adult" (yet alone for an entire 5 month span). Zero chance.

[SN2903]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

I was thinking the same thing.
There was another post, from another individual, that also mentioned this.
There isn't a chance in Hell that trump would start "acting like an adult" (yet alone for an entire 5 month span). Zero chance.

He was very disciplined the last 3 weeks of the 2016 campaign. He doesn't "need to start acting like an adult" he just needs to scale back the tweeting/offensive tweets and needs to hammer Biden with negative ads.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

I was thinking the same thing.
There was another post, from another individual, that also mentioned this.
There isn't a chance in Hell that trump would start "acting like an adult" (yet alone for an entire 5 month span). Zero chance.

He was very disciplined the last 3 weeks of the 2016 campaign. He doesn't "need to start acting like an adult" he just needs to scale back the tweeting/offensive tweets and needs to hammer Biden with negative ads.

I'm not sure Trump is capable of scaling back the tweets at this point.  He seems to consider it the best and fastest way to get his thoughts out to the general public. 

[HisGrace]

Biden is certainly the favorite, but you've got to remember how far behind Trump was a month out last time and remember we're five months out now. If the economy reopens in the near future and the riots continue and alienate a lot of people Trump's chances improve considerably. There's also the possibility of more allegations against Biden.

[Xing]

Even if Biden’s poll numbers are better, even if he’s running a better campaign than Clinton, even if he’s (so far been) a better candidate than Clinton....

The last thing we should do is get cocky. Come on, people, it’s not that hard.

[Alben Barkley]

It should be. And probably more people would be claiming it was if they weren’t so shocked in 2016 that it’s made them more cautious.

However, a couple things still bother me:

1. Extreme polarization exists and would keep Trump viable if nothing else. There is probably about 40-45% of the country that will vote for him no matter what, some of which is his diehard base/cult and some of which is just people who will vote for the R next to his name. If it was 1932 or 1980, it would be a different story. But it’s not. He is doing quite poorly in the polls for an incumbent, however.

2. While he is almost certain to lose the popular vote, as we saw last time he can still win the electoral college. The polarization affecting different parts of the country differently, rather than being evenly spread throughout the country, is why that is the case. Even if he loses them this time, the rust belt states and other swing states like FL will likely still vote to the right of the nation.

That’s not even getting into the possibility he will try to steal or rig the election. Can anyone really say he is above that? Although, the reports that even he's worried and frustrated with his campaign do suggest he knows he could lose. That could either mean he's not going to outright cheat, or it might make it more likely that he tries it.

That said, I agree 2016 was an incredibly narrow victory and he is highly unlikely to repeat the same feat twice. Especially because even with things as polarized as they are, only a narrow shift against him would be enough to beat him. Never mind his opponent is more popular this time, he no longer has the advantage of being the outsider/change candidate, and he has clearly pissed off a lot of people as much or more than he has excited a lot of people. In fact he's done essentially nothing to expand his base, but I have no doubt some people who stayed home in 2016, thinking he had no chance, will be sure to come out to vote against him this time. Ironically, the fact that people do believe he has a chance may be the very reason he does not.

[SN2903]

It should be. And probably more people would be claiming it was if they weren’t so shocked in 2016 that it’s made them more cautious.

However, a couple things still bother me:

1. Extreme polarization exists and would keep Trump viable if nothing else. There is probably at least 40% of the country that will vote for him no matter what, some of which is his diehard base/cult and some of which is just people who will vote for the R next to his name. If it was 1932 or 1980, it would be a different story. But it’s not.

2. While he is almost certain to lose the popular vote, as we saw last time he can still win the electoral college. The polarization affecting different parts of the country differently, rather than being evenly spread throughout the country, is why that is the case. Even if he loses them this time, the rust belt states and other swing states like FL will likely still vote to the right of the nation.

That’s not even getting into the possibility he will try to steal or rig the election. Can anyone really say he is above that?

That said, I agree 2016 was an incredibly narrow victory and he is highly unlikely to repeat the same feat twice. Especially because even with things as polarized as they are, only a narrow shift against him would be enough to beat him. Never mind his opponent is more popular this time, he no longer has the advantage of being the outsider/change candidate, and he has clearly pissed off a lot of people as much or more than he has excited a lot of people. In fact he's done essentially nothing to expand his base, but I have no doubt some people who stayed home in 2016, thinking he had no chance, will be sure to come out to vote against him this time. Ironically, the fact that people do believe he has a chance may be the very reason he does not.

But I think most people thought he had a chance in 2016. It was the media that constantly fed BS that he didn't. A lot of what happened in 2016 wasn't people staying home. Turnout was really high and in fact Clinton got real good turnout in some areas of the country what happened was Trump's turnout was better and a lot of people voted third party. Less people will vote 3rd party but you could make a legit argument Hillary had more energy behind her campaign than Biden did. If Biden stumbles it could really hurt his turnout.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

I was thinking the same thing.
There was another post, from another individual, that also mentioned this.
There isn't a chance in Hell that trump would start "acting like an adult" (yet alone for an entire 5 month span). Zero chance.

He was very disciplined the last 3 weeks of the 2016 campaign. He doesn't "need to start acting like an adult" he just needs to scale back the tweeting/offensive tweets and needs to hammer Biden with negative ads.

I'm not sure Trump is capable of scaling back the tweets at this point.  He seems to consider it the best and fastest way to get his thoughts out to the general public. 

I also wonder if his lack of impulse control is another sign of cognitive decline.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As long as Biden avoids a major scandal or October surprise, and as long as the massive failures of Trump's administration from this year alone stays in peoples' memories and they get out to vote for Biden because of it, Biden will win with Arizona, Michigan, NE-2, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin flipping to him at a minimum. Trump always had very little room for error, and now he might be at an unrecoverable point. Uncontrollable outside factors for either candidate were always going to be what defined this election, as someone said earlier, but so far those have disproportionately been detriments to Trump and his campaign.

There are still five months to go, however, and I refuse to get complacent or overconfident no matter how encouraging things look for now. I intend to stay worried about Trump, and I think that's the best option for every Democrat or anyone else who wants Trump out of office. We need to use our negative feelings to keep us focused on election day.

[Pericles]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

[Pericles]

I believe the Trump campaign has some significant dirt on Biden (oppo research) that they have not dumped yet just how Bush had stuff on Kerry in 2004.

I could see Pelosi having some dirt on Trump that she'll release at the end of October. Just enough to shift the narrative in the final days. But this is also just a gut feeling, I could be wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The protests did give Ds an enthusiasm gap bump initially, that's why the polls were inflated,  but today's polls shows that it was a bump, that's it, the polls are gonna get tighter, again

[SN2903]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

I agree turnout could be low esp. on the dem side. Trump's base will turn out. I think Biden will get worse turnout than Hillary.

[Hammy]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

While I don't agree with much of this post, the evidence does not yet suggest there is likely to be a significant spike in African-American turnout (relative to any turnout increase in the wider population, that is), nor does the polling we have (admittedly not much outside of subsamples) indicate Biden's primary support translates into numbers significantly better than HRC's among AAs. The protests should not be assumed to have increased voting propensity amongst those involved and many have demonstrated precisely because they believe they can't get what they want through more convenient means like electoralism.

[SN2903]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

While I don't agree with much of this post, the evidence does not yet suggest there is likely to be a significant spike in African-American turnout (relative to any turnout increase in the wider population, that is), nor does the polling we have (admittedly not much outside of subsamples) indicate Biden's primary support translates into numbers significantly better than HRC's among AAs. The protests should not be assumed to have increased voting propensity amongst those involved and many have demonstrated precisely because they believe they can't get what they want through more convenient means like electoralism.

I actually think what is going on may depress AA turnout because many may feel hopeless like neither side is listening to them. Trump, through ads, talking about the 1994 crime bill won't suddenly cause AAs to support him but it could depress AA turnout because they may feel there is no real choice. If dems don't get good minority turnout Trump can def win in the EC.

[Reaganfan]

I love the complacency and the measuring of the drapes! It is the same thing dems did in 2016. I remember this two times in 2016: in August 2016 and after the Access Hollywood tape when Democrats declared the race over. Trump's greatest strength similar to Reagan and Nixon is being underestimated.

Trump's base will come out in full force. You will see a turnout the likes of which you have never seen on 11.3.20. The polls are not measuring the turnout Trump will have. The silent majority is fed up with the media in this country and the constant political witch hunts the democrats and media have been doing.

I think this will be a Dewey beats Truman moment.

I remember how every single moment was "awful" for Trump.

Trump chooses his running mate Mike Pence.
(LIBERALS FLOAT RUMORS THAT "SOURCES" SAY TRUMP REGRETS IT AND WANTS TO SWITCH TO CHRIS CHRISTIE)

One of the many Trump/Pence logos unveiled.
(LIBERALS SAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LETTER'S TP AND A PENIS GOING INTO A HOLE)

Pence gives a great convention speech
(LIBERALS MAKE GIFS OF TRUMP JOKINGLY BLOWING A KISS AT PENCE)

Melania Trump gives a great speech
(LIBERALS SAY IT WAS PLAGIARISM AND DON'T COVER ANY OF WHAT SHE SAID WITH ANY SERIOUSNESS)

Trump gives a fantastic convention speech
(LIBERALS SAY IT WAS "DARK AND DIVISIVE"

Trump rips into one person who attacked him (Khan)
(LIBERALS SAY HE ATTACKS GOLD STAR FAMILIES (PLURAL))

Trump performs average at worst in first debate
(LIBERALS AND POLLS SAY HE LOSES HORRIFICALLY)

The Access Hollywood tape is released from 12 years prior, Trump brags about being about to have sex with many women due to his fame and status.
(LIBERALS SAY TRUMP ADMITTED TO SEXUAL ASSAULT)

("SOURCES" TALK OF PENCE LEAVING TICKET, REPLACING TRUMP, DOWNBALLOT RACES LIKELY GOING DEMOCRATIC)

Will Trump lose Utah? Will Hillary's coattails give Democrats the Senate?

What color dress will President-elect Hillary Clinton's granddaughter wear on stage?

Little girls with their faces painted being told "Today is the day a woman was elected President."

---------------------------------------


All of that is accurate. All of it happened before. The presumption of victory was so certain and to this day, I don't really see any difference in the polling methodology, the media bias, the "Trump campaign in disarray" op-ed articles.

At the end of the day, if enough people in the midwest shrug, Donald Trump will be President until 2025. It's not anywhere near over.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

I agree turnout could be low esp. on the dem side. Trump's base will turn out. I think Biden will get worse turnout than Hillary.

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

While I don't agree with much of this post, the evidence does not yet suggest there is likely to be a significant spike in African-American turnout (relative to any turnout increase in the wider population, that is), nor does the polling we have (admittedly not much outside of subsamples) indicate Biden's primary support translates into numbers significantly better than HRC's among AAs. The protests should not be assumed to have increased voting propensity amongst those involved and many have demonstrated precisely because they believe they can't get what they want through more convenient means like electoralism.

I actually think what is going on may depress AA turnout because many may feel hopeless like neither side is listening to them. Trump, through ads, talking about the 1994 crime bill won't suddenly cause AAs to support him but it could depress AA turnout because they may feel there is no real choice. If dems don't get good minority turnout Trump can def win in the EC.

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

While I don't agree with much of this post, the evidence does not yet suggest there is likely to be a significant spike in African-American turnout (relative to any turnout increase in the wider population, that is), nor does the polling we have (admittedly not much outside of subsamples) indicate Biden's primary support translates into numbers significantly better than HRC's among AAs. The protests should not be assumed to have increased voting propensity amongst those involved and many have demonstrated precisely because they believe they can't get what they want through more convenient means like electoralism.

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

While I don't agree with much of this post, the evidence does not yet suggest there is likely to be a significant spike in African-American turnout (relative to any turnout increase in the wider population, that is), nor does the polling we have (admittedly not much outside of subsamples) indicate Biden's primary support translates into numbers significantly better than HRC's among AAs. The protests should not be assumed to have increased voting propensity amongst those involved and many have demonstrated precisely because they believe they can't get what they want through more convenient means like electoralism.

I actually think what is going on may depress AA turnout because many may feel hopeless like neither side is listening to them. Trump, through ads, talking about the 1994 crime bill won't suddenly cause AAs to support him but it could depress AA turnout because they may feel there is no real choice. If dems don't get good minority turnout Trump can def win in the EC.

All of these comments are just plain idiotic. Do you guys live in reality?

[YE]

It’s too soon to say whether this election is over, although if Biden is up high single figures 12-15 weeks from now, it probably is. After the coronavirus and the riots, I don’t see base turnout being a serious issue in this election and honestly I struggle to know how someone can with a straight face think that there is less enthusiasm for Biden at this point than for Clinton although this isn’t something that could really be measured. The biggest thing stopping Biden isn’t anything he or Trump does at this point but rather the extreme polarization of the country. Potentially 45% or more of the country will vote for anyone with an R by their name regardless of how turbulent this year has been.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, it's not, with the poll that shows Biden plus 3 and Change Research showing PA and WI in flux and it's a VBM election, the polls will tighten again. Dems cant be complacent,  Trump voters were hidden in the polls last time. Dems didnt have a real primary again, and Bernie, whom tend to generate more enthusiasm,  would be doing much better is upper midwest than Biden.

Biden is an Establishment candidate like Hilary and has been campaigning most of the time from his basement

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

While I don't agree with much of this post, the evidence does not yet suggest there is likely to be a significant spike in African-American turnout (relative to any turnout increase in the wider population, that is), nor does the polling we have (admittedly not much outside of subsamples) indicate Biden's primary support translates into numbers significantly better than HRC's among AAs. The protests should not be assumed to have increased voting propensity amongst those involved and many have demonstrated precisely because they believe they can't get what they want through more convenient means like electoralism.

I actually think what is going on may depress AA turnout because many may feel hopeless like neither side is listening to them. Trump, through ads, talking about the 1994 crime bill won't suddenly cause AAs to support him but it could depress AA turnout because they may feel there is no real choice. If dems don't get good minority turnout Trump can def win in the EC.

I hate picking on other people on this forum, but JEEBUS CRIPES ON A CRACKER, this is so stupid on so many levels. Are you trolling, or do you really think this?

Have you not been paying attention to the primaries? Black voters have made it resoundingly clear that he's their guy. Contrary to popular perception, the African-American voting base is not full of ultra-woke, cancel-culturing SJWs. They understand that people change and evolve, and they know the difference between tone-deafness and genuine antipathy.