AZ (Fox) - Kelly +13

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is she gonna get Blanched?

At least Blanche Lincoln won two elections.

[We Live in Black and White]

As the poster above me pointed out, this isn't even a bad or biased poll. It also showed Biden up by a comparatively modest four points, which means McSally is titantically underperforming Trump. I think she's rapidly moving toward Cory Gardner levels of politically dead.

Is Kelly like well known or established in AZ? I don’t understand how their are so many Trump-Kelly voters either, he’s not particularly moderate and seems like an average Democrat.

He's known and loved. He's Gabrielle Giffords' husband, for starters, meaning that he gets a lot of residual sympathy even nine years after the assassination attempt. Beyond that, and more crucially, he's very well-liked personally and is seen as a national and state hero akin to John Glenn.

[Horus]

As the poster above me pointed out, this isn't even a bad or biased poll. It also showed Biden up by a comparatively modest four points, which means McSally is titantically underperforming Trump. I think she's rapidly moving toward Cory Gardner levels of politically dead.

Is Kelly like well known or established in AZ? I don’t understand how their are so many Trump-Kelly voters either, he’s not particularly moderate and seems like an average Democrat.

He's known and loved. He's Gabrielle Giffords' husband, for starters, meaning that he gets a lot of residual sympathy even nine years after the assassination attempt. Beyond that, and more crucially, he's very well-liked personally and is seen as a national and state hero akin to John Glenn.

People love astronauts. Unless you're Bill Nelson.

[We Live in Black and White]

As the poster above me pointed out, this isn't even a bad or biased poll. It also showed Biden up by a comparatively modest four points, which means McSally is titantically underperforming Trump. I think she's rapidly moving toward Cory Gardner levels of politically dead.

Is Kelly like well known or established in AZ? I don’t understand how their are so many Trump-Kelly voters either, he’s not particularly moderate and seems like an average Democrat.

He's known and loved. He's Gabrielle Giffords' husband, for starters, meaning that he gets a lot of residual sympathy even nine years after the assassination attempt. Beyond that, and more crucially, he's very well-liked personally and is seen as a national and state hero akin to John Glenn.

People love astronauts. Unless you're Bill Nelson.

Well, let's be honest, Bill Nelson "lost".

[Mexican Wolf]

It's really impressive how big of a lead Kelly's been opening up, even given McSally's weaknesses as a candidate. I'm really excited to see Arizona with an all-blue Senate delegation. Go Kelly!

[Webnicz]

Likely D.

Can Arizona Republicans ask her to step aside and find a better replacement?

Who else could they get? Arpaio? Ward? Biggs? Gosar? Aside from Ducey and Yee, Arizona's Republican bench is really poor for a state that was red until very recently.

^^^ This , the republicans weak bench is only going to escalate the rate of D trend in AZ. Think about it McSally was the *only one* who could be appointed that was seen as electable enough to keep the seat.

Why is McSally underperforming Trump so much

She Lost

[Person Man]

Stop! I can only get so erect!

[Webnicz]

Just to remind everyone Kelli Ward is running the AZ Republican Party

[The Mikado]

You guys...I think Martha McSally might be in trouble. Maybe.

As I've been saying in the top board, it's hilarious how people equivocate over "Biden up by double digits, over 50% vs incumbent president" but everyone sees "Kelly up by double digits, over 50% vs incumbent Senator" and just says "McSally is Blanched."

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

As the biggest skeptic of tilt/lean D AZ, even I'm ready to call this for Kelly.

[TarHeelDem]

I've seen enough.

Likely D -> Safe D

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The race is Likely D, but I’m still surprised to see Kelly outperforming Biden by this much.
I wonder if he might have gotten a bit of a subconscious boost from all the SpaceX publicity last weekend.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, hopefully Daines, McSally, Collins and Gardner are blanched. I have all of these states as likely Dem. Bullock wins by default due to Disappearing Daines🤩🤩🤩

[ProgressiveModerate]

Don't think Kelly will win by 13, but this sure is bad news for McSally, when poll after poll has her down by double digits in a race that should be extremely close. Sinema wasn't ever polling this well in 2018 pre-Kavanaugh, and she still won by 2 points despites a green party canidate being on the ballot, taking 2.5% of the vote away from Sinema.

[Epaminondas]

You guys...I think Martha McSally might be in trouble. Maybe.

As I've been saying in the top board, it's hilarious how people equivocate over "Biden up by double digits, over 50% vs incumbent president" but everyone sees "Kelly up by double digits, over 50% vs incumbent Senator" and just says "McSally is Blanched."

Senate seats don't have an antidemocratic electoral college.

[S019]

Lean D---->Likely D, there have been enough polls for me to call Kelly a sizable favorite, this isn't in Safe territory and probably won't reach there, but at the start of the cycle, this was expected to be one of the most competitive races, so we'll see.

[Sir Mohamed]

I thought this race would be a nailbiter with Kelly favored. But it more and more looks like Blanche Lincoln. McSally gets closer to a Gardner territory here rather than Tillis or Collins.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Kelly - 50
McSally - 37

1002 RV, May 30-June 2
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf

Is she gonna get Blanched?

For real though, I get that AZ is trending D, but loosing by double digits? Is McSally really that bad or are polls overestimating Kelly?

She isn't loosing anything, I don't believe.  However, she is losing.

[WD]

Kelly - 50
McSally - 37

1002 RV, May 30-June 2
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf

Is she gonna get Blanched?

For real though, I get that AZ is trending D, but loosing by double digits? Is McSally really that bad or are polls overestimating Kelly?

She isn't loosing anything, I don't believe.  However, she is losing.

lmao I meant losing, my bad man

[wbrocks67]

The race is Likely D, but I’m still surprised to see Kelly outperforming Biden by this much.
I wonder if he might have gotten a bit of a subconscious boost from all the SpaceX publicity last weekend.

Kelly was polling high / and in double digits before that

[SnowLabrador]

Lean D.

[here2view]

"Blanche Lincoln" McSally

[QAnonKelly]

Lmao

[SevenEleven]

AZ looks to be going the way of Virgina.

Colorado, not Virginia.

[Xing]

Democrats shouldn’t declare victory in this race just yet, but yeah, it’s looking pretty close to Likely D at this point, and it’s hard to see McSally winning, given how consistently she’s underperforming Trump.