AZ, OH, WI (Fox) - Biden +4, +2, +9

[SN2903]

AZ numbers are believeable. OH and WI are not. Biden is probably up 1-2 pts in WI and Trump is probably up 3-5 in Ohio. AZ I think 1-3 is more believable. All of this will be reversed soon. These numbers remind me of August 2016 and Trump rebounded. I remember Democrats and the Media calling the election in Aug 2016.

[CellarDoor]

AZ numbers are believeable. OH and WI are not. Biden is probably up 1-2 pts in WI and Trump is probably up 3-5 in Ohio. AZ I think 1-3 is more believable. All of this will be reversed soon. These numbers remind me of August 2016 and Trump rebounded. I remember Democrats and the Media calling the election in Aug 2016.

All of the polls are believable.

Ohio:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ohio/

Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/

Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ numbers are believeable. OH and WI are not. Biden is probably up 1-2 pts in WI and Trump is probably up 3-5 in Ohio. AZ I think 1-3 is more believable. All of this will be reversed soon. These numbers remind me of August 2016 and Trump rebounded. I remember Democrats and the Media calling the election in Aug 2016.

Biden is gonna win OH

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Arizona President by Fox News on 2020-06-02

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Ohio President by Fox News on 2020-06-02

Summary: D: 45%, R: 43%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Fox News on 2020-06-02

Summary: D: 49%, R: 40%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[pbrower2a]

I buy those Arizona numbers. I think Biden is currently up in Wisconsin, but not by that much and I'm not convinced he pulls it off in November. I'm skeptical of the Ohio numbers but I'd love to be wrong about that.

The margin for Wisconsin is barely more than twice the margin of error. The tipping-point state of 2016 looks at this point like a disaster for the President. Arizona (and if Trump is losing both Arizona and Wisconsin he needs to pick off Pennsylvania or perhaps Michigan and New Hampshire to compensate -- neither of which is likely) is at the margin of error. Ohio is within the margin of error, and Trump still has slightly-better-than-even approval in Ohio.

Here is how I see the states "falling" to Biden:


NH 232
MI 248
PA 268
WI 278
AZ 289
IA  295
NC 310
FL  349
NE-02  350
OH  368
ME-02  369
GA 385
TX  423

OK, Wisconsin could be a current exaggeration because events in a neighboring state are center-stage... but that also puts Iowa in play if these Wisconsin numbers stick.

We may be seeing a Trump collapse.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I buy those Arizona numbers. I think Biden is currently up in Wisconsin, but not by that much and I'm not convinced he pulls it off in November. I'm skeptical of the Ohio numbers but I'd love to be wrong about that.

The margin for Wisconsin is barely more than twice the margin of error. The tipping-point state of 2016 looks at this point like a disaster for the President. Arizona (and if Trump is losing both Arizona and Wisconsin he needs to pick off Pennsylvania or perhaps Michigan and New Hampshire to compensate -- neither of which is likely) is at the margin of error. Ohio is within the margin of error, and Trump still has slightly-better-than-even approval in Ohio.

Here is how I see the states "falling" to Biden:


NH 232
MI 248
PA 268
WI 278
AZ 289
IA  295
NC 310
FL  349
NE-02  350
OH  368
ME-02  369
GA 385
TX  423

OK, Wisconsin could be a current exaggeration because events in a neighboring state are center-stage... but that also puts Iowa in play if these Wisconsin numbers stick.

We may be seeing a Trump collapse.

Florida has 29 EV, not 39.

[Tender Branson]

AZ or even TX voting to the left of PA would be a shocker, but a funny map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ or even TX voting to the left of PA would be a shocker, but a funny map.

Wont happen, Dems will win Pa. Dems have had a lot of success in flipping 3 R seats in 2018 from red to blue and will keep those blue seats

[ProudModerate2]

Somewhat believable.
WI seems slightly high at +9.
OH with Biden +2 is mind blowing. I mean I could be wrong, but OH just does not seem reachable for Biden to win. I would like him to spend resources elsewhere instead (FL, NC).

[DaleCooper]

I don't expect Biden to win by 9 in Wisconsin, but I don't see why it's shocking that Wisconsin is polling similarly to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump did about as well there in 2016 as he did in the other two and with the exception of the Scott Walker race, a relatively popular incumbent R governor (who still lost), Democrats have performed about as well in Wisconsin as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. It's not terribly unbelievable that things look bad for Trump here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont think SN understand that 25 percent unemployment isnt going away by Election day unless there is a vaccine

[Sir Mohamed]

That's huge. I don't think OH will actually flip. It will be closer as 2016 for sure, but I guess Biden comes up short 3-4 pts at least. The WI margin is a bit much, but the state isn't tilt R as has been suggested. AZ appears to be tilt D at least as we speak. If my memory is correct, Mr. Trump hasn't led a single poll here for months.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's huge. I don't think OH will actually flip. It will be closer as 2016 for sure, but I guess Biden comes up short 3-4 pts at least. The WI margin is a bit much, but the state isn't tilt R as has been suggested. AZ appears to be tilt D at least as we speak. If my memory is correct, Mr. Trump hasn't led a single poll here for months.

OH has correctly predicted the EC vote winner and has voted for every D Prez including Wilson to Obama, except for Kennedy,  due to 22% African Americans in NE OH, the same amount in NE VA

[Hindsight was 2020]

That's huge. I don't think OH will actually flip. It will be closer as 2016 for sure, but I guess Biden comes up short 3-4 pts at least. The WI margin is a bit much, but the state isn't tilt R as has been suggested. AZ appears to be tilt D at least as we speak. If my memory is correct, Mr. Trump hasn't led a single poll here for months.

OH has correctly predicted the EC vote winner and has voted for every D Prez including Wilson to Obama, except for Kennedy,  due to 22% African Americans in NE OH, the same amount in NE VA
Yeah but the Dems are a lot stronger with whites in NE VA then they are in NE Ohio

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's huge. I don't think OH will actually flip. It will be closer as 2016 for sure, but I guess Biden comes up short 3-4 pts at least. The WI margin is a bit much, but the state isn't tilt R as has been suggested. AZ appears to be tilt D at least as we speak. If my memory is correct, Mr. Trump hasn't led a single poll here for months.

OH has correctly predicted the EC vote winner and has voted for every D Prez including Wilson to Obama, except for Kennedy,  due to 22% African Americans in NE OH, the same amount in NE VA
Yeah but the Dems are a lot stronger with whites in NE VA then they are in NE Ohio

Cordray lost OH by 3 pts not by 8 that Hilary lost and Cordray wasnt as strong as Biden by running up score in African American communities, Biden can make that 3 percent,  like he helped Obama win OH in 2008 to 2012

[lfromnj]

I actually agree with SN here on the current numbers.
AZ is mostly believable here but I am pretty sure they aren't weighting properly by education for WI/OH.
Im going to wait however for the next marquette poll of Wisconsin which no one should discount.

The most recent MQ poll was Biden +4, I would currently plug it around Biden +5?
Ohio is probably like Trump +3 or 4.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I actually agree with SN here,
AZ is mostly believable here but im pretty sure they aren't weighting properly by education for WI/OH.
Im going to wait however for the next marquette poll of Wisconsin which no one should discount.

The most recent MQ poll was Biden +4, I would currently plug it around Biden +5?
Ohio is probably like Trump +3 or 4.

Why do people believe that Trump will win IA and OH, its 25 percent unemployment and Cordray and Hubbard were not as strong as Biden and they lost by 3.5,  tossup Biden.. biden helped Obama win both IA and OH in 2008-12

This is a Fox poll too

[tagimaucia]

I actually agree with SN here on the current numbers.
AZ is mostly believable here but I am pretty sure they aren't weighting properly by education for WI/OH.
Im going to wait however for the next marquette poll of Wisconsin which no one should discount.

The most recent MQ poll was Biden +4, I would currently plug it around Biden +5?
Ohio is probably like Trump +3 or 4.

Fox News polls do weight by education (and use voter files in states where that's possible).  I do wish they would show their college/non-college breakdown for the sake of transparency though, they don't seem to in those polls.

[President Johnson]

Arizona seems plausible, but I'm not buying Biden ahead in Ohio. If he actually wins by eight or ten points nationally, yeah, then it might flip. I believe this is a five or six point race. Also, in this case, Wisconsin won't be decided by nine. Two or three are more plausible.

[lfromnj]

I actually agree with SN here on the current numbers.
AZ is mostly believable here but I am pretty sure they aren't weighting properly by education for WI/OH.
Im going to wait however for the next marquette poll of Wisconsin which no one should discount.

The most recent MQ poll was Biden +4, I would currently plug it around Biden +5?
Ohio is probably like Trump +3 or 4.

Fox News polls do weight by education (and use voter files in states where that's possible).  I do wish they would show their college/non-college breakdown for the sake of transparency though, they don't seem to in those polls.

Fox had polls in 2018 for missouri and Indiana which both overestimated the d incumbents.
Anyway seems like they haven't done it properly in 2018 .
Their Az poll was pretty good though and I find it about right for right now

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Democrats, time to start spending in Ohio.

https://youtu.be/y0X0ZYbnHxA?t=3s