TX-Quinnipiac: Trump +1
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Author Topic: TX-Quinnipiac: Trump +1  (Read 4563 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: June 03, 2020, 01:00:57 PM »
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=3662

Trump - 44
Biden - 43
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2020, 01:04:04 PM »
Trump is basically tied in Texas , is doing worse than McCain 2008 Nationally and he thinks the strategy to victory is a rerun of the 2016 campaign lol.

He never ever got that the best strategy for re-election is to actually be a leader who cares about governing especially in times of crises
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2020, 01:04:24 PM »
It's gonna be close, but democrats probably need another cycle to flip it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2020, 01:04:46 PM »
Basically a tie.

Trump leads men by 12, Biden women by 12.
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2020, 01:05:40 PM »
« Edited: June 03, 2020, 01:10:45 PM by 10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill.. »
Quote from: #Klobmentum on June 03, 2020, 01:04:24 PM
It's gonna be close, but democrats probably need another cycle to flip it.

Oh it will definitely in 2024. Especially if Trump manages another squeaker and a not-Trump has to run on his record. If he somehow grows into his job and on the people, the next guy will have big clown shoes to fill. In the event he was just able to maintain his popularity enough to win this year and the base abandons him, we will be in a 2008 situation. Texas will flip if 2024 is a 2008 situation.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2020, 01:06:04 PM »
Quote from: #Klobmentum on June 03, 2020, 01:04:24 PM
It's gonna be close, but democrats probably need another cycle to flip it.

It’s only close this year because of Trump.

In 2024, TX will be at least R+5 again.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2020, 01:06:47 PM »
I still think Texas is somewhere along the Leans/Likely Trump line of demarcation, but if Trump's having to spend money defending Texas in October, that's a horrible sign
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2020, 01:08:24 PM »
Texas is gonna be really close, polls tend to underestimate Democrats here too.
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Storr
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« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2020, 01:12:01 PM »
The fact Texas is this close, is a very ominous sign for Trump.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2020, 01:14:08 PM »
Since 1990 (and it was so in 2016), Texas has straddled 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee. I have yet to be convinced that such has changed. OK -- maybe it straddles "350" if the state has undergone demographic change that makes it more D than it used to be.  
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2020, 01:16:12 PM »
« Edited: June 03, 2020, 01:22:06 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
This is not an especially strong portent outside of TX, but it is a bad one for Republican fortunes in the SW.

TX-PRES: Likely->Lean R
TX-SEN: Likely->Lean R
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2020, 01:18:55 PM »
Great poll, Texas is a swing state!
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2020, 01:22:23 PM »
I've been hesitant to move Texas to Tossup, but if we keep getting polls in this very narrow range once we get to late July or early August I may change my mind.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2020, 01:22:43 PM »
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Texas is a toss-up, cowards!
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The Mikado
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« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2020, 01:23:49 PM »
Likely R -> Lean R.
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MidwestPollster
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« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2020, 01:26:33 PM »
Not good news for Trump but Dems dont carry this year.
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Gracile
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« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2020, 01:27:52 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 03, 2020, 01:08:24 PM
Texas is gonna be really close, polls tend to underestimate Democrats here too.

Quinnipiac specifically heavily underestimated O'Rourke all throughout 2018 (Cruz frequently lead in the high single-digits/low double-digits). So these numbers should be concerning for Republicans.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2020, 01:28:51 PM »
Texas will be quite close. Not the tipping point, but nonetheless quite close.
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2020, 01:34:36 PM »
Lean R.

Unlike GA which will be relying on Blacks who always vote above their weight, TX has to rely on Hispanics who are very unreliable voters.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2020, 01:37:53 PM »
Yikes. Just making Trump spend money is gonna be win for Ds tho. I don't think he's going to lose but it will be super tight.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2020, 01:43:12 PM »
I previously had this at 52-46 or 52-47 Trump, but at this point I'm expecting a complete repeat of 2018 SEN.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2020, 01:52:15 PM »
As others have said, let's not forget that polls have underestimated Ds in TX in the past.

However, as much as I love that it's basically tied, Q-pac is usually good with pushing the undecideds, but 13% undecided/other? That ain't it.
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SN2903
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« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2020, 01:52:35 PM »
Junk it. Quinnipiac is not reliable after 2018
Trump will win by 5-7. 13% undecided? LOL
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2020, 01:53:36 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on June 03, 2020, 01:52:35 PM
Junk it. Quinnipiac is not reliable after 2018
Trump will win by 5-7.

IF anything, Q-pac UNDER-estimated Beto in 2018, so...
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S019
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« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2020, 01:53:42 PM »
This is a tossup, at this point
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