Monmouth: Biden +11

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Beautiful. Thank you America!

True honer!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Say what you will about the race potentially narrowing, but Biden clearly has room to fall based on this poll. You could give Trump all of the undecideds and Biden still wins by four, which may be just enough to still win the electoral college.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

“Biden only up 11 in June? LOL”-SN250498765432791

Mike Dukakis was up by 17 points in summer 1988, so Biden is going to do worse than Duke.

[Obiden2020]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

When? When have we heard this before?

Trump is always wrote off.

Hey buddy, facts dont care about your feelings. You're acting pretty damn emotional right now. I thought that was what the Libs do?

[Yoda]

Trump has been very consistent at polling around 41%-43% in all of these national polls.

It's Biden who fluctuates between 47%-53% depending on the specific pollster.

He also continues to under poll his own approval rating, though only by a couple points in this poll if you accept the current 538 approval tracking # of 43%. Trump has been consistently polling 3-4% under his own approval, which suggests a small number of those who approve still prefer Biden. The opposite is true for Biden. Big sign of weakness for trump.
 

[SN2903]

If you look at the polls this week Monmouth and ABC are clearly outliers. Most polls show Biden +4 to +7. This race is tilt D at best right now. Trump could easily still win FL, PA and WI right now. NC is tilt R . There were many polls showing Hillary up 10 just weeks before she lost. One major slip up by Biden and Trump is ahead in the EC by a decent margin - 285-300 EV. Trump can win the EC losing the popular vote by 4% easily.

[woodley park]

If you look at the polls this week Monmouth and ABC are clearly outliers. Most polls show Biden +4 to +7. This race is tilt D at best right now. Trump could easily still win FL, PA and WI right now. NC is tilt R . There were many polls showing Hillary up 10 just weeks before she lost. One major slip up by Biden and Trump is ahead in the EC by a decent margin - 285-300 EV. Trump can win the EC losing the popular vote by 4% easily.

Your analysis is flawed because the fundamentals have changed. As long as COVID continues to sicken Americans, so long as the economy remains in a COVID-induced recession, and so long as unrest continues to roil America, Trump is not going to just revert to his “just competitive enough” mean. You’re stuck in the mindset that this is 2015-2019, when the economy was humming along. Trump is in charge and the country is a mess.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If you look at the polls this week Monmouth and ABC are clearly outliers. Most polls show Biden +4 to +7. This race is tilt D at best right now. Trump could easily still win FL, PA and WI right now. NC is tilt R . There were many polls showing Hillary up 10 just weeks before she lost. One major slip up by Biden and Trump is ahead in the EC by a decent margin - 285-300 EV. Trump can win the EC losing the popular vote by 4% easily.

If a PPP poll doesnt have Dems down in PA, WI and MI, dont buy it and so far, every poll that has come out in PPP has Biden ahead in all three states

Trump only won all three due to Comey letter and Gary Johnson and you act like Dems before 2016 never won WI, PA and MI ever in a Prez contest, which they have, WI, PA, OH 76, IA WI, 88, IA, OH, PA, WI, MI 92-96, 08-12, 2000 IA, WI, MI and 2004 WI, MI and PA🤩🤩🤩

Trump is corrupted and he is going to jail, since R Senators didnt convict him, that's why Collins is gonna lose, she acquitted Trump

[SN2903]

If you look at the polls this week Monmouth and ABC are clearly outliers. Most polls show Biden +4 to +7. This race is tilt D at best right now. Trump could easily still win FL, PA and WI right now. NC is tilt R . There were many polls showing Hillary up 10 just weeks before she lost. One major slip up by Biden and Trump is ahead in the EC by a decent margin - 285-300 EV. Trump can win the EC losing the popular vote by 4% easily.

Your analysis is flawed because the fundamentals have changed. As long as COVID continues to sicken Americans, so long as the economy remains in a COVID-induced recession, and so long as unrest continues to roil America, Trump is not going to just revert to his “just competitive enough” mean. You’re stuck in the mindset that this is 2015-2019, when the economy was humming along. Trump is in charge and the country is a mess.

Country isn't going to blame the virus on Trump or the economy they are gonna judge him rebuilding and the efforts to get the economy going.

[Ferguson97]

If you look at the polls this week Monmouth and ABC are clearly outliers. Most polls show Biden +4 to +7. This race is tilt D at best right now. Trump could easily still win FL, PA and WI right now. NC is tilt R . There were many polls showing Hillary up 10 just weeks before she lost. One major slip up by Biden and Trump is ahead in the EC by a decent margin - 285-300 EV. Trump can win the EC losing the popular vote by 4% easily.

Your analysis is flawed because the fundamentals have changed. As long as COVID continues to sicken Americans, so long as the economy remains in a COVID-induced recession, and so long as unrest continues to roil America, Trump is not going to just revert to his “just competitive enough” mean. You’re stuck in the mindset that this is 2015-2019, when the economy was humming along. Trump is in charge and the country is a mess.

Country isn't going to blame the virus on Trump or the economy they are gonna judge him rebuilding and the efforts to get the economy going.

You have a far more charitable view of the electorate than you should. Bush was hardly to blame for the '08 recession, but voters blamed the Republicans.

[The Mikado]

"Die in office."
I dont understand this dying-in-office concern, that many often say.
His health looks fine to me, and I dont see much of a change in this over the next 4/5 years.
Now in 2024, we can reassess the situation (if he runs again). But for now, I dont see it.
(Honest truth is that I view Bernie's health with some concern, due to his heart problem. And I hope all goes well for him, for many more years.)

There's a reason that the saying "70 is the new 50, but 85 is the new 84" exists. At a certain point no matter HOW good condition your body is in it'll start to really decline rapidly, and for a lot of people it's in your 80s, and it can set in very, very quickly.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If you look at the polls this week Monmouth and ABC are clearly outliers. Most polls show Biden +4 to +7. This race is tilt D at best right now. Trump could easily still win FL, PA and WI right now. NC is tilt R . There were many polls showing Hillary up 10 just weeks before she lost. One major slip up by Biden and Trump is ahead in the EC by a decent margin - 285-300 EV. Trump can win the EC losing the popular vote by 4% easily.

Your analysis is flawed because the fundamentals have changed. As long as COVID continues to sicken Americans, so long as the economy remains in a COVID-induced recession, and so long as unrest continues to roil America, Trump is not going to just revert to his “just competitive enough” mean. You’re stuck in the mindset that this is 2015-2019, when the economy was humming along. Trump is in charge and the country is a mess.

Country isn't going to blame the virus on Trump or the economy they are gonna judge him rebuilding and the efforts to get the economy going.

You are wrong again, Trunp has 3 lawyers in jail for tampering with 2016 election,  he has already been judged by the people,  he is corrupted,  you cant see Trump is corrupted,  the Rs can only see Hilary was corrupted, Trump has already been impeached,  but not removed by a corrupt McConnell whom is doing ads for Daines since Daines doesnt want to show his face to the public

[Yoda]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it! 4 years later Trump wins it by 10% almost.

Source? Who's "they"? I feel like you just made this up.

I can't remember seeing/reading anyone, anywhere, ever saying that republicans could never win Ohio again.

[Alben Barkley]

Also, these age breakdowns seem more accurate than some of the other polls that show 65+ voters being more Democratic than 18-34 voters (which flies in the face of some the foolish claims by Biden supporters that 65+ voters will give Biden a major victory and that younger voters aren't a part of a winning Democratic coalition).

Obviously younger voters are a part of a winning Democratic coalition. It’s just that if Biden is also winning older voters at all, as he still is in this poll, that’s even more devastating for Trump. It would be nice for Biden to win them; Trump needs to win them.

I will say however that perhaps some of these big leads we’re seeing Biden get in the latest polls is due to previously uncommitted younger voters (largely former Bernie supporters not “enthusiastic” about Biden) coming home, while he’s still winning the older voters. Perhaps as a result both of the primaries simply becoming more distant and of recent events making it clearer than ever to young people that they have to vote. The FiveThirtyEight article about how Biden doesn’t really have a young voter problem is bolstered by these numbers, in any case.

[Alben Barkley]

Between this, the polls showing Biden up in WI, AZ, and OH, and TX effectively tied... I’m starting to feel better about this race than ever.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Between this, the polls showing Biden up in WI, AZ, and OH, and TX effectively tied... I’m starting to feel better about this race than ever.

Trump has had many chances to triangulate with Leader McConnell, but his wife Elaine Chao works inside Trump's cabinet,  making triangulating impossible; consequently,  all he has to do is pass campaign finance reform,  minimum wage and 1 more 1200 stimulus check, he can get reelected,  but wont.

Every Prez have done it, Nixon with War Powers Act, Reagan on SSA Reform, Clinton on Welfare reform and Bush W on immigration

[Alben Barkley]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

When? When have we heard this before?

He's talking about 2016 in which Trump basically ran against the worst D nominee since at least Smith.

Hillary was a better nominee than Dukakis lol

And Mondale, McGovern, possibly Humphrey and Stevenson. And even Kerry.

She did win the popular vote by more than Gore 2000, after all. The electoral loss looks bigger on paper, but not that much so in reality when you consider how close MI/PA/WI were and how close not only FL but states Gore narrowly won (including WI, but also even states like OR) were in 2000. His fall from Clinton 1996 was greater than Hillary’s was from Obama 2012. She also won the PV by almost as much as Bush 2004, in fact. There’s a good argument she was the best Democratic nominee who didn’t win. Although, granted, she was a uniquely bad fit against Trump. Probably Biden would have won fairly easily the same year. But on the other hand, Hillary likely would have won in 2008, maybe even 2004, and maybe against another Republican in 2016 like Cruz or Jeb!

[Brittain33]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it!

That’s not only inaccurate, it’s not remotely believable anyone would have said that about Ohio who wasn’t a crazy outlier. Making up a bad lie like that makes you look uninformed about politics.

[Orwell]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it! 4 years later Trump wins it by 10% almost.

Source? Who's "they"? I feel like you just made this up.

I can't remember seeing/reading anyone, anywhere, ever saying that republicans could never win Ohio again.

I know at least some people predicted the GOP would gain in Ohio, but they didn't think it would go from Obama to R+10 the next cycle.

[SN2903]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it! 4 years later Trump wins it by 10% almost.

Source? Who's "they"? I feel like you just made this up.

I can't remember seeing/reading anyone, anywhere, ever saying that republicans could never win Ohio again.

I know at least some people predicted the GOP would gain in Ohio, but they didn't think it would go from Obama to R+10 the next cycle.

I remember a lot of dems saying GOP can't win Ohio after 2012.

[Orwell]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it! 4 years later Trump wins it by 10% almost.

Source? Who's "they"? I feel like you just made this up.

I can't remember seeing/reading anyone, anywhere, ever saying that republicans could never win Ohio again.

I know at least some people predicted the GOP would gain in Ohio, but they didn't think it would go from Obama to R+10 the next cycle.

I remember a lot of dems saying GOP can't win Ohio after 2012.

Ohio was won by George Dubya 2 times and was close in 2008 and 2012

California was won by Clinton twice Gore and Kerry and then twice more by Obama and HRC each time they expanded on each other's margin and HRC nearly doubled Trump's amount of votes in in California.

These aren't comparable you hack

[หมูเด้ง]

Between this, the polls showing Biden up in WI, AZ, and OH, and TX effectively tied... I’m starting to feel better about this race than ever.

Trump has had many chances to triangulate with Leader McConnell, but his wife Elaine Chao works inside Trump's cabinet,  making triangulating impossible; consequently,  all he has to do is pass campaign finance reform,  minimum wage and 1 more 1200 stimulus check, he can get reelected,  but wont.

Every Prez have done it, Nixon with War Powers Act, Reagan on SSA Reform, Clinton on Welfare reform and Bush W on immigration

Trump's attempt is pushing Fair Trade.

[Brittain33]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it! 4 years later Trump wins it by 10% almost.

Source? Who's "they"? I feel like you just made this up.

I can't remember seeing/reading anyone, anywhere, ever saying that republicans could never win Ohio again.

I know at least some people predicted the GOP would gain in Ohio, but they didn't think it would go from Obama to R+10 the next cycle.

I remember a lot of dems saying GOP can't win Ohio after 2012.

No, you don’t.

[Former President tack50]

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

Eh, polling misses just as often in narrow elections as in landslides. Pretty sure that for example 1996 in the US was a big polling miss (bigger even than 2016 in fact). However nobody really cared that Clinton won by 9 points instead of 13 or 14.

People notice polling misses in tight elections for obvious reasons but polls miss all the time regardless of the final outcome.

[Obiden2020]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it! 4 years later Trump wins it by 10% almost.

Source? Who's "they"? I feel like you just made this up.

I can't remember seeing/reading anyone, anywhere, ever saying that republicans could never win Ohio again.

I know at least some people predicted the GOP would gain in Ohio, but they didn't think it would go from Obama to R+10 the next cycle.

I remember a lot of dems saying GOP can't win Ohio after 2012.

Ohio was won by George Dubya 2 times and was close in 2008 and 2012

California was won by Clinton twice Gore and Kerry and then twice more by Obama and HRC each time they expanded on each other's margin and HRC nearly doubled Trump's amount of votes in in California.

These aren't comparable you hack

He just operates on emotion. No Facts