Monmouth: Biden +11

[Comrade Luanne Platter]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

[SN2903]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

[afleitch]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Cults often do.

[Bomster]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

You realize trump lost the national popular vote by 3,000,000 right? That means Trump’s base is smaller than even Hillary’s. And he only barely won the electoral college because of extremely slim margins.

[You are responsible]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

[SN2903]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Cults often do.

63 million votes is quite a large cult. You insinuating that all his voters are cult members?

[SN2903]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

You realize trump lost the national popular vote by 3,000,000 right? That means Trump’s base is smaller than even Hillary’s. And he only barely won the electoral college because of extremely slim margins.

Trump's voters were more solidly behind him. Hillarys support was also concentrated on the coasts. Running up the margins in CA doesn't matter or count. When will dems stop using this talking point ? Iowa and Ohio are gone forever and Minnesota and Wisconsin are next.

[afleitch]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Cults often do.

63 million votes is quite a large cult. You insinuating that all his voters are cult members?

No. I think that Biden's base would abandon him if he had people gassed for a photo op with an upside down Bible. For Trump's base, that's just a regular Tuesday.

[Calthrina950]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

[Bomster]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

You realize trump lost the national popular vote by 3,000,000 right? That means Trump’s base is smaller than even Hillary’s. And he only barely won the electoral college because of extremely slim margins.

Trump's voters were more solidly behind him. Hillarys support was also concentrated on the coasts. Running up the margins in CA doesn't matter or count. When will dems stop using this talking point ? Iowa and Ohio are gone forever and Minnesota and Wisconsin are next.

Gone forever? There was once a day when California was red and Texas was blue. Before the 70s Iowa was seen as solidly red "until hell froze over". No state is gone forever. Hell Texas might be on the same path as California in urbanizing and becoming blue.

[SN2903]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

You realize trump lost the national popular vote by 3,000,000 right? That means Trump’s base is smaller than even Hillary’s. And he only barely won the electoral college because of extremely slim margins.

Trump's voters were more solidly behind him. Hillarys support was also concentrated on the coasts. Running up the margins in CA doesn't matter or count. When will dems stop using this talking point ? Iowa and Ohio are gone forever and Minnesota and Wisconsin are next.

Gone forever? There was once a day when California was red and Texas was blue. Before the 70s Iowa was seen as solidly red "until hell froze over". No state is gone forever. Hell Texas might be on the same path as California in urbanizing and becoming blue.

I think CA and NY are gonna start moving more R and IL already has.

[SN2903]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

Biden isn't capable of that kind of win. He is going to mess up sooner or later big time. I honesty don't think he can win. Trump is going to destroy him in the debates.

[Red Willow]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

-Nonsense- Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. -Nonsense-

Much of the 2016 election was reflecting Anti-Clinton sentiment, not Pro-Trump sentiment.

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

You realize trump lost the national popular vote by 3,000,000 right? That means Trump’s base is smaller than even Hillary’s. And he only barely won the electoral college because of extremely slim margins.

Trump's voters were more solidly behind him. Hillarys support was also concentrated on the coasts. Running up the margins in CA doesn't matter or count. When will dems stop using this talking point ? Iowa and Ohio are gone forever and Minnesota and Wisconsin are next.

Gone forever? There was once a day when California was red and Texas was blue. Before the 70s Iowa was seen as solidly red "until hell froze over". No state is gone forever. Hell Texas might be on the same path as California in urbanizing and becoming blue.

I think CA and NY are gonna start moving more R and IL already has.

IL both swung and trended Dem in 2016.

[Holmes]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

[SN2903]

Um, California’s not going to be moving towards Republicans any time soon, if ever.

They said that about Ohio after 2012. GOP can never win it! 4 years later Trump wins it by 10% almost.

[Calthrina950]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

Biden isn't capable of that kind of win. He is going to mess up sooner or later big time. I honesty don't think he can win. Trump is going to destroy him in the debates.

I said that it's the most I think he can win by, not that he's necessarily going to win by that margin. He's certainly not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against Trump, but he's the one that they are going with.

[SN2903]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

Biden isn't capable of that kind of win. He is going to mess up sooner or later big time. I honesty don't think he can win. Trump is going to destroy him in the debates.

I said that it's the most I think he can win by, not that he's necessarily going to win by that margin. He's certainly not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against Trump, but he's the one that they are going with.

Would you agree Trump is likely to have a nice run at some point during the race to at least pull even? Do you think this Biden lead holds?

[Bomster]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

Biden isn't capable of that kind of win. He is going to mess up sooner or later big time. I honesty don't think he can win. Trump is going to destroy him in the debates.

I said that it's the most I think he can win by, not that he's necessarily going to win by that margin. He's certainly not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against Trump, but he's the one that they are going with.

Would you agree Trump is likely to have a nice run at some point during the race to at least pull even? Do you think this Biden lead holds?

With Biden being not as unpopular as Trump and HRC and polarization high I'd say Biden will likely hold a lead throughout the entire race.

[Nyvin]

SN kinda posts like a cornered dog with his teeth out growling at everybody...

[Calthrina950]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

Biden isn't capable of that kind of win. He is going to mess up sooner or later big time. I honesty don't think he can win. Trump is going to destroy him in the debates.

I said that it's the most I think he can win by, not that he's necessarily going to win by that margin. He's certainly not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against Trump, but he's the one that they are going with.

Would you agree Trump is likely to have a nice run at some point during the race to at least pull even? Do you think this Biden lead holds?

I don't know what is going to happen, since we are still five months away from the election. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump draws closer, or if Biden pulls away.

[Bidenworth2020]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

Biden isn't capable of that kind of win. He is going to mess up sooner or later big time. I honesty don't think he can win. Trump is going to destroy him in the debates.

I said that it's the most I think he can win by, not that he's necessarily going to win by that margin. He's certainly not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against Trump, but he's the one that they are going with.

I don't know how you can be so confident in this? He consistently polled best in the GE ballot tests.

[ProudModerate2]

SN kinda posts like a cornered dog with his teeth out growling at everybody...

When you read all his posts in this thread, this is the image I get of SN (above).

[Calthrina950]

Trump has a stronger base than Biden. Irrefutable fact.

Ah, the old "mistaking opinions for facts, and facts for opinions" phenomenon.

While I don't think this is an "irrefutable fact", it does have some basis to it. Many of Biden's voters are supporting him because he is the "lesser of two evils" and because they desire, above all else, to get Trump out. You can see that on this very forum, with many of the Democratic and left-leaning posters who had previously supported Sanders, Warren, or another candidate during the primaries now rallying unanimously behind Biden, and embracing him as the candidate who will return this country to a sense of normality. Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are locked in for him. Even the pandemic, the lockdown orders, and the riots have done little to shake the support of his most ardent voters.

Hence, while I believe Biden is favored, I don't buy the poll here, as I doubt that Trump will lose by double digits (though it could happen if he completely falls through the floor). I think the most Biden will win by is a margin similar to Obama's from 2008-around 7-8% or so.

Biden isn't capable of that kind of win. He is going to mess up sooner or later big time. I honesty don't think he can win. Trump is going to destroy him in the debates.

I said that it's the most I think he can win by, not that he's necessarily going to win by that margin. He's certainly not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against Trump, but he's the one that they are going with.

I don't know how you can be so confident in this? He consistently polled best in the GE ballot tests.

I believe the Democrats should have chosen a candidate who is younger, but qualified and capable. Biden's age has long been my greatest concern-hence, why it is important for him to have a running mate who can step up if he were to die in office.

[ProudModerate2]

I believe the Democrats should have chosen a candidate who is younger, but qualified and capable. Biden's age has long been my greatest concern-hence, why it is important for him to have a running mate who can step up if he were to die in office.

"Die in office."
I dont understand this dying-in-office concern, that many often say.
His health looks fine to me, and I dont see much of a change in this over the next 4/5 years.
Now in 2024, we can reassess the situation (if he runs again). But for now, I dont see it.
(Honest truth is that I view Bernie's health with some concern, due to his heart problem. And I hope all goes well for him, for many more years.)

[Calthrina950]

I believe the Democrats should have chosen a candidate who is younger, but qualified and capable. Biden's age has long been my greatest concern-hence, why it is important for him to have a running mate who can step up if he were to die in office.

"Die in office."
I dont understand this dying-in-office concern, that many often say.
His health looks fine to me, and I dont see much of a change in this over the next 4/5 years.
Now in 2024, we can reassess the situation (if he runs again). But for now, I dont see it.
(Honest truth is that I view Bernie's health with some concern, due to his heart problem. And I hope all goes well for him, for many more years.)

Biden is clearly not in the same condition that he was ten or even four years ago. While I don't buy the conspiracy theories which many on the right have indulged in, I do think that his mental acuity should be under scrutiny, and I certainly think we need a President who is level-headed and able to deal effectively with the press. But I will say that Biden is better than Trump, at least from the perspective of restoring dignity to the Oval Office. And I think that if he wins, he will be a one-term President. Whoever his running mate is will be posed for a run of their own in 2024.