Monmouth: Biden +11

[MidwestPollster]

Biden 51/35 among independents

[Red Willow]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Really hope this is sustainable through November. Right now I'm expecting a final margin closer to Biden +6, but if we could get +7 or +8 that would be wonderful.

As always, throw it in the average.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

And with this one, RCP finally ditched the The Hill/Harris X poll that had Biden 42, Trump 41 from its rolling average.

The poll that was singlehandedly holding Biden down in their average.

So...well...



Yeah.

This date in 2016 in RCP for comparison:

The difference in stability between the 2020 numbers and the 2016 numbers really is something to behold. Way more people have had their minds made up since the beginning of this cycle.

[WD]

We love polling in the low 40s, don’t we folks?

[here2view]

We love polling in the low 40s, don’t we folks?

I'm getting tired of all this winning!

[SN2903]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

When? When have we heard this before?

[หมูเด้ง]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

When? When have we heard this before?

He's talking about 2016 in which Trump basically ran against the worst D nominee since at least Smith.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

When? When have we heard this before?

He's talking about 2016 in which Trump basically ran against the worst D nominee since at least Smith.

Yes, but nobody in 2016 thought America was "exhausted with" Trump in the sense that we're exhausted with him now.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1268229937582014465

[IceAgeComing]

Wait a minute; the electorate aren't overly fond of the incumbent president during a period of mass rioting?  What a shocking development!

[Virginiá]

Really hope this is sustainable through November. Right now I'm expecting a final margin closer to Biden +6, but if we could get +7 or +8 that would be wonderful.

As always, throw it in the average.

It might not be sustainable, but then again, look around. We're literally facing Depression-era economic numbers, a poorly-handled pandemic that will have killed at least 150,000 - 200,000 Americans by November (at current death rates), and now nationwide riots over police brutality that Trump is trying to crush by force. This is the kind of environment that the incumbent would get completely destroyed in, Hoover-style. The only reason we have any reason to doubt that is because of how incredibly polarized the country is.

So who knows, but it's worth keeping in mind that polarization was never going to last forever. Eventually the dam was going to break for one side or the other (and in terms of demographics alone, there was never a strong argument that it was going to break for the GOP)

[หมูเด้ง]

Really hope this is sustainable through November. Right now I'm expecting a final margin closer to Biden +6, but if we could get +7 or +8 that would be wonderful.

As always, throw it in the average.

It might not be sustainable, but then again, look around. We're literally facing Depression-era economic numbers, a poorly-handled pandemic that will have killed at least 150,000 - 200,000 Americans by November (at current death rates), and now nationwide riots over police brutality that Trump is trying to crush by force. This is the kind of environment that the incumbent would get completely destroyed in, Hoover-style. The only reason we have any reason to doubt that is because of how incredibly polarized the country is.

So who knows, but it's worth keeping in mind that polarization was never going to last forever. Eventually the dam was going to break for one side or the other (and in terms of demographics alone, there was never a strong argument that it was going to break for the GOP)

I mean, that's what is supposed to happen. Trump was never supposed to be president. Then again, according to basic Bayesianism, things should eventually start coming back to normal, right? How many things can go wrong in a row, right?

[SN2903]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

Well, it's basically what happened, he got very lucky with the last news cycle in late October/early November and squeaked by with a few thousand votes in key states. I'm not saying he can't win, but it's going to be another razor thin result and he's going to need a lot of developments to go his way to make it happen again.

It wasn't luck. Trump ran a good campaign and Hillary was a bad candidate. Things have to swing the other way eventually.

[Ferguson97]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

Well, it's basically what happened, he got very lucky with the last news cycle in late October/early November and squeaked by with a few thousand votes in key states. I'm not saying he can't win, but it's going to be another razor thin result and he's going to need a lot of developments to go his way to make it happen again.

It wasn't luck. Trump ran a good campaign and Hillary was a bad candidate. Things have to swing the other way eventually.

Why? Why do they have to swing the other way eventually?

Accept that Trump is doing a bad job as President, and the American people are tired of it.

You're losing.

[President Johnson]

Uncle Joe will beat Trump like a 🥁 !

Obviously, it won't be by eleven, but Trump's showing is pathetic at this point, but earned.

[SN2903]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

Well, it's basically what happened, he got very lucky with the last news cycle in late October/early November and squeaked by with a few thousand votes in key states. I'm not saying he can't win, but it's going to be another razor thin result and he's going to need a lot of developments to go his way to make it happen again.

It wasn't luck. Trump ran a good campaign and Hillary was a bad candidate. Things have to swing the other way eventually.

Why? Why do they have to swing the other way eventually?

Accept that Trump is doing a bad job as President, and the American people are tired of it.

You're losing.

The only polls that matter are on election day. Your side will get complacent again

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

Well, it's basically what happened, he got very lucky with the last news cycle in late October/early November and squeaked by with a few thousand votes in key states. I'm not saying he can't win, but it's going to be another razor thin result and he's going to need a lot of developments to go his way to make it happen again.

It wasn't luck. Trump ran a good campaign and Hillary was a bad candidate. Things have to swing the other way eventually.

Why? Why do they have to swing the other way eventually?

Accept that Trump is doing a bad job as President, and the American people are tired of it.

You're losing.

The only polls that matter are on election day.

Given the long and unfortunate history of this phrase which you're surely aware of, this reads like parody.

[GeneralMacArthur]

And now it looks like the RNC convention is going to be a slapped-together disaster too.  Imagine if the DNC is able to pull off their convention reasonably well.  Biden would be in landslide territory.

[Virginiá]

I mean, that's what is supposed to happen. Trump was never supposed to be president. Then again, according to basic Bayesianism, things should eventually start coming back to normal, right? How many things can go wrong in a row, right?

In retrospect, Trump is a great example of crippling partisan polarization. We've never had someone as cartoonishly evil and scandal-plagued as him, so it was a novel experience. But as we see now, Biden is skating pretty easily through  some of his own issues. People had just assumed that voters actually cared about scandals and a candidate's behavior. But the economy, historically, has always been a solid way to determine how white voters will react politically (non-white voters or at least AAs tend to vote the same way no matter what). So if this doesn't result in a spectacular downfall for Republicans, at least we know literally nothing will.

[Bomster]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

Well, it's basically what happened, he got very lucky with the last news cycle in late October/early November and squeaked by with a few thousand votes in key states. I'm not saying he can't win, but it's going to be another razor thin result and he's going to need a lot of developments to go his way to make it happen again.

It wasn't luck. Trump ran a good campaign and Hillary was a bad candidate. Things have to swing the other way eventually.

Why? Why do they have to swing the other way eventually?

Accept that Trump is doing a bad job as President, and the American people are tired of it.

You're losing.

The only polls that matter are on election day. Your side will get complacent again

Bruh have you seen us democrats? We hate the President with the passion of a 1,000 suns. There’s no way we’re going to sit on our asses and lose again.

[SN2903]

I think America is just exhausted with Trump.  He's going to need a flawless convention (Bush 2004/Obama 2012) and a knockout first debate (Kerry 2004/Romney 2012) at this point.

We've heard that before...

When? When have we heard this before?

Trump is always wrote off.

[IceAgeComing]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

[SN2903]

I've recently watched a load of old news/election coverage before the 1997 UK General Election and its remarkable how much what this nerd is saying matches up with the Tory Party talking points before that election ("the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day"; disregarding past election losses since the last main election to point to past glories, talking about how the other side will get complacent while sounding like you are yourself etc).

Probably don't need to say what happened in the 1997 General Election.  Because that's the thing with polling; pretty much all polling misses are narrow elections (and national polling in the 2016 Presidential election was narrow and broadly correct, it was some of the state polls that stunk), not in elections showing a massive lead for one side.

Dude all it takes is one Biden scandal, one great debate performance from Trump , one major Biden stumble and Trump is tied or leading. Much of these polls are reflecting anti-Trump sentinment not pro-Biden sentiment. People are being prisoners of the moment with these polls.