Monmouth: Biden +11

[Bidenworth2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1268195883893641220

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful. Thank you America!

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This should put a quick end to the PA going R claim, in the Change Research poll

[tagimaucia]

There's a pretty stark difference between different types of polls right now, isn't there?  Bigger than I can remember in other presidential elections (although I think we've seen similar gaps in Trump approval at times during his presidency).

The most historically high quality live caller polls (Monmouth, ABC/Wapo, Fox News) are all showing Biden up by close to 10.   On the other hand, a lot of primarily online-based stuff is showing something closer to a 3 or 4 point lead.

[wbrocks67]

Trump fav: 38/57 (-19)
Biden fav: 42/49 (-7)

Indies: Biden 51, Trump 35
Males: Biden 46, Trump 43
Females: Biden 58, Trump 39
18-34: Biden 56, Trump 31
35-49: Biden 60, Trump 36
50-64: Trump 50, Biden 46
65+: Biden 50, Trump 46
Whites: Trump 52, Biden 43
Nonwhites: Biden 71, Trump 20

Monmouth was generally one of the more favorable pollsters for Trump, so this is interesting.

[wbrocks67]

There's a pretty stark difference between different types of polls right now, isn't there?  Bigger than I can remember in other presidential elections (although I think we've seen similar gaps in Trump approval at times during his presidency).

The most historically high quality live caller polls (Monmouth, ABC/Wapo, Fox News) are all showing Biden up by close to 10.   On the other hand, a lot of primarily online-based stuff is showing something closer to a 3 or 4 point lead.

That might have been the case before - but now we have Morning Consult, YouGov, Change, Ipsos, all registering 7-10 pt+ leads as well.

[Panda Express]

Trump has been very consistent at polling around 41%-43% in all of these national polls.

It's Biden who fluctuates between 47%-53% depending on the specific pollster.

[Sir Mohamed]

DOMINATING

So much for the Trump bump as a result of protests. Polling barely over (or in other polls under) 40% as an incumbent prez is atrocious. Of course, Trump hacks like SN will never admit their hero is in deep trouble and insist he will just rise before the election and win a landslide victory.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1268178640640106507

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Biden only up 11 in June? LOL”-SN250498765432791

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

How many polls in 2016 showed Hillary breaking 50%?? It seems like a good chunk of polls recently have Biden in the high 40's - low 50's..

I see a 47 - 52 result for Biden as likely if nothing major changes, which would put PA, WI, MI, and AZ on the Dem side.

[krb08]

If you're a Republican on this board and aren't worried about the insanely good numbers for Biden from high-quality polls, then you're in denial. His lead is extremely robust.

Obviously as we get closer to the election things could tighten up, but since elections with an incumbent are typically a referendum on the president, it's not looking good for Trump at all. I've been pessimistic about Biden's ability to keep his lead. But at this point, it's clear that it's not going away.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1268178640640106507

Another projection.  That's what his campaign team did for him after they provided him polling that showed him losing to Biden in swing states and he threw a fit.

[SN2903]

Biden is not up with males. Total BS. Junk this garbage poll.

[Annatar]

There's a pretty stark difference between different types of polls right now, isn't there?  Bigger than I can remember in other presidential elections (although I think we've seen similar gaps in Trump approval at times during his presidency).

The most historically high quality live caller polls (Monmouth, ABC/Wapo, Fox News) are all showing Biden up by close to 10.   On the other hand, a lot of primarily online-based stuff is showing something closer to a 3 or 4 point lead.

Abramowitz tweeted about this recently.

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz/status/1267121469777219585

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

If you're a Republican on this board and aren't worried about the insanely good numbers for Biden from high-quality polls, then you're in denial. His lead is extremely robust.

Obviously as we get closer to the election things could tighten up, but since elections with an incumbent are typically a referendum on the president, it's not looking good for Trump at all. I've been pessimistic in Biden's ability to keep his lead. But at this point, it's clear that it's not going away.

I think we are so polarized, that gaffes and that sort of stuff will make only small differences at the end of the day.

[Gracile]

Obviously a lot can change over the course of five months, but it's clear that Trump is in a horrendous position as an incumbent President.

[Burke Bro]

No matter how some will try to frame it, this is a really bad poll for trump. The sample also looks to be very representative of the country.

[SN2903]

Obviously a lot can change over the course of five months, but it's clear that Trump is in a horrendous position as an incumbent President.

The state polls contradict this poll this morning.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously a lot can change over the course of five months, but it's clear that Trump is in a horrendous position as an incumbent President.

The state polls contradict this poll this morning.

Its  Change Research polls,  not PPP polls that have had Biden leading in PA, WI and MI as well as AZ, NC and FL

[indietraveler]

The popular vote is safe D.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Obviously a lot can change over the course of five months, but it's clear that Trump is in a horrendous position as an incumbent President.

The state polls contradict this poll this morning.

Those Change polls were a bit confusing -- having Biden up in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina but down in  Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin.  

Would make for an interesting EC map, at least.  

I just don't believe Biden is up with men. There is no way. This poll is inflated.

I...didn't say anything about the male demographic?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It'll inevitably narrow down as the campaign progresses.

[Gracile]

Also, these age breakdowns seem more accurate than some of the other polls that show 65+ voters being more Democratic than 18-34 voters (which flies in the face of some the foolish claims by Biden supporters that 65+ voters will give Biden a major victory and that younger voters aren't a part of a winning Democratic coalition).

[The Mikado]

And with this one, RCP finally ditched the The Hill/Harris X poll that had Biden 42, Trump 41 from its rolling average.

The poll that was singlehandedly holding Biden down in their average.

So...well...



Yeah.

This date in 2016 in RCP for comparison: