Change Polls FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ, WI

[SN2903]

What is the breakdown in Pennsylvania? Those numbers just don't look right. It can either be confirmed or disproved by subsequent Pennsylvania polls for some trendlines.

SN2903 says that this a "Confirmation that the riots are hurting dems in the Midwest."

Yet Biden is up 2 in Michigan, about the same in Wisconsin from what we have seen and the only one that supposedly confirms this for him is Pennsylvania in one single poll. Trendlines are not set up by one poll. If multiple polls have Trump over 50 in Pennsylvania, then that would be a positive trendline for him to "confirm" but for one state unless others are showing the same thing.

PA is more conservative than MI. +4 is def eye opening but it makes sense PA is to the right of MI.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

What is the breakdown in Pennsylvania? Those numbers just don't look right. It can either be confirmed or disproved by subsequent Pennsylvania polls for some trendlines.

SN2903 says that this a "Confirmation that the riots are hurting dems in the Midwest."

Yet Biden is up 2 in Michigan, about the same in Wisconsin from what we have seen and the only one that supposedly confirms this for him is Pennsylvania in one single poll. Trendlines are not set up by one poll. If multiple polls have Trump over 50 in Pennsylvania, then that would be a positive trendline for him to "confirm" but for one state unless others are showing the same thing.

PA is more conservative than MI. +4 is def eye opening but it makes sense PA is to the right of MI.

You really think PA is going R, Biden is from PA and Dems have won PA in every election since 1992, but 2016

[Tender Branson]

I doubt it.

Unless Biden is running up the margins in Democratic states and cutting Trump’s lead from 2016 in deeply Republican states in half or even more ...

Otherwise, the current national Biden-margins of 6-12 points are not possible.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If we were to remove FL and PA, then it would be a dead heat.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If we were to remove FL and PA, then it would be a dead heat.

Not with Monmouth showing Biden plus 11

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt it.

Unless Biden is running up the margins in Democratic states and cutting Trump’s lead from 2016 in deeply Republican states in half or even more ...

Otherwise, the current national Biden-margins of 6-12 points are not possible.

Werent Tender the same one that posted MSN polls had WVA and UT going Dem

[wbrocks67]

The PA poll has Trump's approval a 52%. Junk it.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Even if these numbers are accurate Trump still loses:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=24f8

[GeneralMacArthur]

I see unskewedpolls.com has been renamed to changeresearch.com

[Devout Centrist]

Lol, who's taking these goons seriously after SC?

And SN930298849686859048220493, these polls still result in a Biden victory.

[woodley park]

I'm sure RCP will post this immediately, and it will be duly reported by Hannity and Ingraham and their ilk.

Yep, its already up on RCP.

[GeneralMacArthur]

[GeneralMacArthur]

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Does Change typically have a big Republican skew or is it just generalized junk?

[TC 25]

I'm sure if they polled Minnesota it would have been within 2-3 points either way.

Four years ago, I was mocked on this board for even daring to suggest Trump had a chance to pull it off.

If after the last 3 months he is still in striking distance, and he clearly is, it's safe to say this election will again go down to the wire.

[Bomster]

Why is change research always so weird with their polling? The numbers always seem so off. I remember their South Carolina poll showing Bernie and Biden tied at 27% and even as a Bernie supporter back then I was super skeptical of that poll.

[MidwestPollster]

I'm sure if they polled Minnesota it would have been within 2-3 points either way.

Four years ago, I was mocked on this board for even daring to suggest Trump had a chance to pull it off.

If after the last 3 months he is still in striking distance, and he clearly is, it's safe to say this election will again go down to the wire.

Will be fascinating to compare the 16 & 20 results from MN.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

The "muh 2016, muh 2016, Trump Is Defying Gravity" people realize that in 2016 it was the national polls that were spot-on and the swing state polls that were off, right?

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Change national poll is Biden +7. So maybe somebody should ask these geniuses how does that reconciles with these wacky swing state numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Change national poll is Biden +7. So maybe somebody should ask these geniuses how does that reconciles with these wacky swing state numbers.

Reading the fine print, it's actually two different (simultaneous) polls:

Change Research conducted a poll of 3,958 likely voters May 29-31, 2020 across 6 competitive battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A companion national survey of 1,457 likely voters was also conducted May 29-31, 2020.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Change national poll is Biden +7. So maybe somebody should ask these geniuses how does that reconciles with these wacky swing state numbers.

Reading the fine print, it's actually two different (simultaneous) polls:

Change Research conducted a poll of 3,958 likely voters May 29-31, 2020 across 6 competitive battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A companion national survey of 1,457 likely voters was also conducted May 29-31, 2020.

So one of the two is total sh**t. I wonder which one.

[หมูเด้ง]

The Change national poll is Biden +7. So maybe somebody should ask these geniuses how does that reconciles with these wacky swing state numbers.

Reading the fine print, it's actually two different (simultaneous) polls:

Change Research conducted a poll of 3,958 likely voters May 29-31, 2020 across 6 competitive battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A companion national survey of 1,457 likely voters was also conducted May 29-31, 2020.

1457 in each? That could be a pretty good poll if they aren't just a bunch of white pensioners they got ahold of on landlines. That's like what? 1/1457^.5 MoE? OTOH, if they are divided between several states, that gives us like 1/250^.5 MoE. That's like 6%.

[TC 25]

I'm sure if they polled Minnesota it would have been within 2-3 points either way.

Four years ago, I was mocked on this board for even daring to suggest Trump had a chance to pull it off.

If after the last 3 months he is still in striking distance, and he clearly is, it's safe to say this election will again go down to the wire.

[SN2903]

The "muh 2016, muh 2016, Trump Is Defying Gravity" people realize that in 2016 it was the national polls that were spot-on and the swing state polls that were off, right?

national polls are not sustainable for Biden

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Change national poll is Biden +7. So maybe somebody should ask these geniuses how does that reconciles with these wacky swing state numbers.

Reading the fine print, it's actually two different (simultaneous) polls:

Change Research conducted a poll of 3,958 likely voters May 29-31, 2020 across 6 competitive battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A companion national survey of 1,457 likely voters was also conducted May 29-31, 2020.

1457 in each? That could be a pretty good poll if they aren't just a bunch of white pensioners they got ahold of on landlines. That's like what? 1/1457^.5 MoE? OTOH, if they are divided between several states, that gives us like 1/250^.5 MoE. That's like 6%.

The first poll, from which the battleground numbers come, is 3958 LV voters across the six states; it doesn't say how many in each state.  The second poll, from which the national number is coming, is 1457 LV across the entire nation.