SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,637
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« on: June 03, 2020, 03:50:53 PM » |
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A combination of tipping point margin and percentage of total NPV vote switches needed to change the result:
2000: 269 vote switches in FL (0.00025% of NPV)
1976: 5600 votes in OH; 3700 in HI (0.012% of NPV) or a similarly low percentage in OH and WI, or OH and MS
1960: several possibilities, esp IL-NJ-TX
2016: MI-PA-WI about 37,000 PVs or 0.025% of NPV)
2004 is perhaps fifth, but it is unlikely that many votes in OH would switch without similar effects in surrounding states (even if Kerry really did believe that "there's nothing like Buckeye football")
1948 deserves special mention because in several close Truman states, a small number of switches from Truman to Wallace would have given Dewey the election, as well as from Truman to Dewey. (The Wallace vote was less than expected).
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