Rank the "closest" elections since WW2

[Orser67]

You can use whatever criteria you want, but here are the elections where the margin in the tipping point state was closer than five points.

2000: 0.01% (FL)
1960a: 0.52% (MO; tipping point state for Kennedy win)
2016: 0.77% (WI)
1960b: 0.80% (NJ; tipping point state for Nixon win)
1948: 0.84% (IL)
1976: 1.68% (WI)
2004: 2.11% (OH)
1968: 2.92% (IL)
1992: 4.65% (TN)

Let me know if I missed an election here, but I will note that in 2012, the tipping point state was CO, which voted for Obama by 5.37%. The biggest surprise appearance on this list for me is probably 1992.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2000
1960
2016
1976
2004

[One Term Floridian]

Wow I’m stunned 1992 is on here above 2012. Gore couldn’t even get Clinton at +5% in TN. That’s crazy

[SingingAnalyst]

A combination of tipping point margin and percentage of total NPV vote switches needed to change the result:

2000: 269 vote switches in FL (0.00025% of NPV)

1976: 5600 votes in OH; 3700 in HI (0.012% of NPV) or a similarly low percentage in OH and WI, or OH and MS

1960: several possibilities, esp IL-NJ-TX

2016: MI-PA-WI about 37,000 PVs or 0.025% of NPV)

2004 is perhaps fifth, but it is unlikely that many votes in OH would switch without similar effects in surrounding states (even if Kerry really did believe that "there's nothing like Buckeye football")

1948 deserves special mention because in several close Truman states, a small number of switches from Truman to Wallace would have given Dewey the election, as well as from Truman to Dewey. (The Wallace vote was less than expected).