Ipsos: Biden +10

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden is up 10, this means TX, NC, GA, FL, AZ, OH, IA, as well as KS are all lean D

No.

Yes

Kansas at lean D? Are you high, or just an idiot?

It's perhaps easiest to think of him as a random post generator.

KS is wave insurance

[OneJ]

I like this poll.

[ProudModerate2]

Junk poll! Ipsos is French. What do they know about American elections and Donald Trump?
I only trust good American companies like Gold Standard McLaughlin and Rasmussen.

[wbrocks67]

OMG, literally like the 3rd poll in recent days that won't end up on RCP. We NEED a 538 tracker or something.

[Burke Bro]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

[wbrocks67]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

Ipsos usually has a lot of undecideds. Not sure why, but it's nothing new from them. A lot of the online pollsters seem to be that way, frustratingly enough. I mean, just look at that TargetSmart survey that basically had 17% total "other" (someone else/undecided/no one etc.)

[SN2903]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

Kind of hard for me to believe they had a dead heat 3 weeks ago now it's Biden +10 that is a lot of fluctuation. The averages say it's a 5 pt race.

[Ferguson97]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

Kind of hard for me to believe they had a dead heat 3 weeks ago now it's Biden +10 that is a lot of fluctuation. The averages say it's a 5 pt race.

A lot has happened in the past three weeks, my guy

[SN2903]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

Kind of hard for me to believe they had a dead heat 3 weeks ago now it's Biden +10 that is a lot of fluctuation. The averages say it's a 5 pt race.

A lot has happened in the past three weeks, my guy

Polls are snap shots in time. I still think Trump pulls even by the RNC, Biden bounce after first debate, Trump comeback 2nd debate (Reagan '84, Bush '04, Obama '12 style) and then Trump pulls even again by election day.

[roxas11]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

Kind of hard for me to believe they had a dead heat 3 weeks ago now it's Biden +10 that is a lot of fluctuation. The averages say it's a 5 pt race.

A lot has happened in the past three weeks, my guy

Polls are snap shots in time. I still think Trump pulls even by the RNC, Biden bounce after first debate, Trump comeback 2nd debate (Reagan '84, Bush '04, Obama '12 style) and then Trump pulls even again by election day.

Biden wining that first debate would pretty much be the end of this election    
Both Reagan and Obama were able to lose the first debate because they went into it with Commanding leads going in. their leads in the polls were big enough that they did not have to worry as much about losing the first one

Trump on the other hand unlike Obama 2012 or Reagan in 1984 would be going into the debate already behind Biden in the polls

he simply can not afford to wait for the second debate in other to defeat Biden
If trump loses that first debate Biden is probably out next president...

[SN2903]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

Kind of hard for me to believe they had a dead heat 3 weeks ago now it's Biden +10 that is a lot of fluctuation. The averages say it's a 5 pt race.

A lot has happened in the past three weeks, my guy

Polls are snap shots in time. I still think Trump pulls even by the RNC, Biden bounce after first debate, Trump comeback 2nd debate (Reagan '84, Bush '04, Obama '12 style) and then Trump pulls even again by election day.

Biden wining that first debate would pretty much be the end of this election    
Both Reagan and Obama were able to lose the first debate because they went into it with Commanding leads going in. their leads in the polls were big enough that they did not have to worry as much about losing the first one

Trump on the other hand unlike Obama 2012 or Reagan in 1984 would be going into the debate already behind Biden in the polls

he simply can not afford to wait for the second debate in other to defeat Biden
If trump loses that first debate Biden is probably out next president...

The race will be tied going into the first debate like 2016

[Alben Barkley]

So this is like the fourth high quality poll we've gotten recently that shows Biden winning by double digits. And Trump doesn't even clear 40% in this one.

I guess all that talk about how the state polls showing Biden cutting into Trump's 2016 margins significantly somehow didn't "add up" with the national polls looks kind of dumb now.

Since when was Ipsos "high quality?". There are also an unusually high percentage of undecideds in this poll.

Ipsos has like a B rating on FiveThirtyEight. Not the highest rated poll but decent. Percentage of undecideds is not that high for them, and really the point is it’s just pathetic Trump isn’t even clearing 40% as an incumbent regardless. There is no getting around that. I don’t care what poll it is or how many undecideds there are, as long as it’s not outright fake that should be an extremely worrying sign. Especially when previous polls from the same pollster didn’t have you this far underwater.

[Sir Mohamed]

DOMINATING

The fact that Mr. Trump is polling #under40 in some polls now should cause headaches in his HQ. An incumbent prez doing this poorly is nothing but a disaster. Now, he won't fall beyond 44-45% on Nov 3, that's for sure, but his current outlook for the election is more grim than ever before in this cycle. Of course, things can change, but I'm not sure how much support he can get back. Even his 2016 support isn't enough due to changing demographics alone. Let's also remember of close 2016 actually was.

I'm generally not in favor of calling Trump DOA already, but people may underestimate how weak he is. Mainly because he pulled this huge surprise in 2016. His luck might finally run out now.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs have only won the PVI 1× since 1988 and both Bush W and Trump needed Nadar and Kremlin and Gary Johnson to win. 2004, Bush W barely won 50K votes in OH, it's over for Trump

[Former President tack50]

I mean, let's remember it is still July. Let's look at some presidential elections and the shift they saw from early June to election day over the past few elections:

2016:
June: Clinton+5
Actual: Clinton+2
Shift: R+3

2012:
June: Obama+2
Actual: Obama+4
Shift: D+2

2008:
June: Obama+7
Actual: Obama+7
Shift: No change

2004:
June: Kerry+6
Actual: Bush+3
Shift: R+9

2000:
June: Bush+5
Actual: Gore+0
Shift: D+5

1996:
June: Clinton+16
Actual: Clinton+9
Shift: R+7

1992:
June: HW Bush+4 over Clinton, albeit with Perot in 1st, leading HW Bush by 8 (38-30-26)
Actual: Clinton+6 over HW Bush; Perot in 3rd well behind the 2 (43-37-19)
Shift: D+10

1988:
June: Dukakis+14
Actual: HW Bush+7
Shift: R+21

1984:
June: Reagan+8
Actual: Reagan+18
Shift: R+10

1980:
June: Carter+7
Actual: Reagan+10
Shift: R+17

So, the conclusion is this in my opinion. Conventional wisdom suggests Biden needs at least a 3 point PV win to win the presidency, and ideally a 4 point one. Let's assume that the current polling average right now is somewhere around Biden+7. Let us also assume polls are 100% right.

¿Can Trump win the election?

Yes, but he needs to run a good campaign. Obviously he can't go down any further as with a PV of Biden+7 he has 0 chance whatsoever. If he runs a campaign that is just as good as his 2016 campaign, by election day instead of being a heavy underdog, he would be just a slim underdog, probably having around a 40% chance of winning. He would be dependent on a polling miss in his direction, but it would not need to be a big one.

A campaign that is better than his 2016 campaign would make the election a coin flip or even put him as a mild favourite.

A campaign that is anything worse than his 2016 campaign makes him an underdog and extremely dependent on a big polling miss.

Trump cannot afford to run a campaign that loses him votes. However if he does recover (and I am sure he will recover at least a bit even if it does not hold until election day, this seems like a low point with the coronavirus and the protests) he certainly has a pretty decent shot at reelection.

In any case, Trump making up a 3-4 point gap (since he does not need to win the PV) is certainly not impossible at all and there are very recent precedents (his own 2016 campaign, Bush 2000 and 04')

[SN2903]

DOMINATING

The fact that Mr. Trump is polling #under40 in some polls now should cause headaches in his HQ. An incumbent prez doing this poorly is nothing but a disaster. Now, he won't fall beyond 44-45% on Nov 3, that's for sure, but his current outlook for the election is more grim than ever before in this cycle. Of course, things can change, but I'm not sure how much support he can get back. Even his 2016 support isn't enough due to changing demographics alone. Let's also remember of close 2016 actually was.

I'm generally not in favor of calling Trump DOA already, but people may underestimate how weak he is. Mainly because he pulled this huge surprise in 2016. His luck might finally run out now.

They have no enthusiasm. I am hoping dems get complacent again.

[Ferguson97]

DOMINATING

The fact that Mr. Trump is polling #under40 in some polls now should cause headaches in his HQ. An incumbent prez doing this poorly is nothing but a disaster. Now, he won't fall beyond 44-45% on Nov 3, that's for sure, but his current outlook for the election is more grim than ever before in this cycle. Of course, things can change, but I'm not sure how much support he can get back. Even his 2016 support isn't enough due to changing demographics alone. Let's also remember of close 2016 actually was.

I'm generally not in favor of calling Trump DOA already, but people may underestimate how weak he is. Mainly because he pulled this huge surprise in 2016. His luck might finally run out now.

They have no enthusiasm. I am hoping dems get complacent again.

SN on November 4: "okay, sure Biden won 55% of the popular vote and 30 states... but how many of those people were enthusiastic[/s]?"

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DOMINATING

The fact that Mr. Trump is polling #under40 in some polls now should cause headaches in his HQ. An incumbent prez doing this poorly is nothing but a disaster. Now, he won't fall beyond 44-45% on Nov 3, that's for sure, but his current outlook for the election is more grim than ever before in this cycle. Of course, things can change, but I'm not sure how much support he can get back. Even his 2016 support isn't enough due to changing demographics alone. Let's also remember of close 2016 actually was.

I'm generally not in favor of calling Trump DOA already, but people may underestimate how weak he is. Mainly because he pulled this huge surprise in 2016. His luck might finally run out now.

They have no enthusiasm. I am hoping dems get complacent again.

SN on November 4: "okay, sure Biden won 55% of the popular vote and 30 states... but how many of those people were enthusiastic[/s]?"

“Biden only winning 30 states is good for Trump”

[WD]

DOMINATING

The fact that Mr. Trump is polling #under40 in some polls now should cause headaches in his HQ. An incumbent prez doing this poorly is nothing but a disaster. Now, he won't fall beyond 44-45% on Nov 3, that's for sure, but his current outlook for the election is more grim than ever before in this cycle. Of course, things can change, but I'm not sure how much support he can get back. Even his 2016 support isn't enough due to changing demographics alone. Let's also remember of close 2016 actually was.

I'm generally not in favor of calling Trump DOA already, but people may underestimate how weak he is. Mainly because he pulled this huge surprise in 2016. His luck might finally run out now.

They have no enthusiasm. I am hoping dems get complacent again.

SN on November 4: "okay, sure Biden won 55% of the popular vote and 30 states... but how many of those people were enthusiastic[/s]?"

“Biden only winning 30 states is good for Trump”

“Biden is only winning Ohio by 2 points, this is good for Trump”

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

*snip*

Trump is basically down by three or four runs in the top of the sixth inning in a game where both teams have better defense than offense (i.e. negative polarization). A comeback isn't impossible by any means, but at this moment I'd still much rather be Biden.

[Progressive Pessimist]

DOMINATING

The fact that Mr. Trump is polling #under40 in some polls now should cause headaches in his HQ. An incumbent prez doing this poorly is nothing but a disaster. Now, he won't fall beyond 44-45% on Nov 3, that's for sure, but his current outlook for the election is more grim than ever before in this cycle. Of course, things can change, but I'm not sure how much support he can get back. Even his 2016 support isn't enough due to changing demographics alone. Let's also remember of close 2016 actually was.

I'm generally not in favor of calling Trump DOA already, but people may underestimate how weak he is. Mainly because he pulled this huge surprise in 2016. His luck might finally run out now.

They have no enthusiasm. I am hoping dems get complacent again.

SN on November 4: "okay, sure Biden won 55% of the popular vote and 30 states... but how many of those people were enthusiastic[/s]?"

“Biden only winning 30 states is good for Trump”

“Biden is only winning Ohio by 2 points, this is good for Trump”

"Biden isn't winning as many counties as Trump!"